Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS gives me a Blizzard Next Thursday, what?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png

Dig it a little more! Round the base of that trough/cold air!

After that, the storm system becomes a monsterous Nor'Easter

[rwfromkansas]

Well that’s a step in the right direction. Wish they would be a bit slower with those GIFs. Lol.

[Iceresistance]

Well that’s a step in the right direction. Wish they would be a bit slower with those GIFs. Lol.

My bad, I'll slow mine down next time.

My prediction is that the 0z GFS is even further west with the snow and cold.

[JayDT]

18z GFS gives me a Blizzard Next Thursday, what?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png

Dig it a little more! Round the base of that trough/cold air!

Ahhh so close! Just a little bit more

[Cpv17]

Well that’s a step in the right direction. Wish they would be a bit slower with those GIFs. Lol.

My bad, I'll slow mine down next time.

My prediction is that the 0z GFS is even further west with the snow and cold.

Good news is there’s more than enough time to do so. Models trending back to their original idea? Wouldn’t be the first time.

[Ghost0321]

Total noob here but why does every model want to push the cold east? Don’t do the Rockies and the flat terrain of the Midwest act as a funnel and bring the dense cold air down to Texas ?

[HockeyTx82]

Total noob here but why does every model want to push the cold east? Don’t do the Rockies and the flat terrain of the Midwest act as a funnel and bring the dense cold air down to Texas ?

Welcome!

East coast bias, but I'll let someone with more knowledge then me explain.

[Ntxw]

Total noob here but why does every model want to push the cold east? Don’t do the Rockies and the flat terrain of the Midwest act as a funnel and bring the dense cold air down to Texas ?

Upper wind flow goes from west to east. Cold air mass moving south with that upper flow should be shunted southeastward and eastward with said flow, is climo.

Heavy, dense, brutally cold air does not care. Global models are coarse and cannot handle it well. Hi-res model capture the surface better.

[Cerlin]

I like the 18z GFS! I don’t put stock into it though. Don’t know if there is any operational evidence for this but I always feel like the 18z GFS is much “wilder” than the other control runs. 18z a few days ago wanted -22 in Tulsa on Christmas morning. So, I hope this is a signal that the models are readjusting to send the bulk of the cold air down the plains but, I’ll believe it when we get a few more runs without an east shift.

[rwfromkansas]

Well that’s a step in the right direction. Wish they would be a bit slower with those GIFs. Lol.

My bad, I'll slow mine down next time.

My prediction is that the 0z GFS is even further west with the snow and cold.

I’m old I have to really slow it to analyze. Lol. Geez, I started with various forums since at least college, so mid-2000s. Been a long time.

I will say I have learned more here than any forecast or my one met class in college for my science credit.

I feel like I get at least the basics of what to look for looking at the models now. The basics.

We have a few decent trends today. Will see what 0z brings.

[Texas Snow]

I like the 18z GFS! I don’t put stock into it though. Don’t know if there is any operational evidence for this but I always feel like the 18z GFS is much “wilder” than the other control runs. 18z a few days ago wanted -22 in Tulsa on Christmas morning. So, I hope this is a signal that the models are readjusting to send the bulk of the cold air down the plains but, I’ll believe it when we get a few more runs without an east shift.

I don’t know if there is evidence for it either but it’s also referred to as the cocktail hour GFS or happy hour GFS

[Ntxw]

I like the 18z GFS! I don’t put stock into it though. Don’t know if there is any operational evidence for this but I always feel like the 18z GFS is much “wilder” than the other control runs. 18z a few days ago wanted -22 in Tulsa on Christmas morning. So, I hope this is a signal that the models are readjusting to send the bulk of the cold air down the plains but, I’ll believe it when we get a few more runs without an east shift.

I don’t know if there is evidence for it either but it’s also referred to as the cocktail hour GFS or happy hour GFS

This used to be true some time ago. 12z and 0z had upper air soundings injected. Nowadays the separation is less and 6z/18z not terrible outliers with good satellite data. 12z/0z are good for looking at major shifts.

[BigB0882]

Can someone please link me to the site that has the GFS output in, I think, 3 hour intervals. You enter your cities call letters. It shows temps, precip, amounts. Very useful. I used to have it saved. I asked earlier but I think the thread was moving too fast.

[Texas Snow]

Can someone please link me to the site that has the GFS output in, I think, 3 hour intervals. You enter your cities call letters. It shows temps, precip, amounts. Very useful. I used to have it saved. I asked earlier but I think the thread was moving too fast.

Pivotal Weather does. I have it subscription so if you don’t see it, perhaps it’s because of that, but otherwise I just checked and it showing 3 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... sfct&m=gfs

[Iceresistance]

Can someone please link me to the site that has the GFS output in, I think, 3 hour intervals. You enter your cities call letters. It shows temps, precip, amounts. Very useful. I used to have it saved. I asked earlier but I think the thread was moving too fast.

WeatherBell or Pivotal Weather?

[Iceresistance]

Can someone please link me to the site that has the GFS output in, I think, 3 hour intervals. You enter your cities call letters. It shows temps, precip, amounts. Very useful. I used to have it saved. I asked earlier but I think the thread was moving too fast.

Pivotal Weather does. I have it subscription so if you don’t see it, perhaps it’s because of that, but otherwise I just checked and it showing 3 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... sfct&m=gfs

College of DuPage has 3 hour GFS for the entire run.

[BigB0882]

It wasn’t any of those. It was all text. The first column was temp, then it showed precip amount, precip type, 10m temp, winds, and temps much higher in the atmosphere. I wish I could remember the name.

[rwfromkansas]

It wasn’t any of those. It was all text. The first column was temp, then it showed precip amount, precip type, 10m temp, winds, and temps much higher in the atmosphere. I wish I could remember the name.

Sounds like a meteogram but a text output. Hopefully somebody knows.

[snowballzzz]

It's looking like the bullseye/bulk of this cold (in my honest, rookie opinion) next week is going to be over parts of the deep south and midwest. I'm just thankful for a below average and cool Christmas. Last year was a grinch with temps in the 80s and Wichita Falls even hit 91. I guess it's time to start watching those temps in NW Canada for the next few days to see what exactly is in store, cold wise.

[South Texas Storms]

It wasn’t any of those. It was all text. The first column was temp, then it showed precip amount, precip type, 10m temp, winds, and temps much higher in the atmosphere. I wish I could remember the name.

I know what website you're talking about. It was IPS Meteostar. It went to a paid subscription site last year. I just searched for it and now it's no longer online.