Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TheProfessor]

I do think South Texas will cash in with this pattern, however I think the GFS is still too far northeast with the first storm so the 2nd storm may be even further south. Something along the lines of Corpus Christi or Victoria Texas getting the brunt of it. I'm getting Christmas 2004 vibes.

I want N OK and ICT to cash in so when I go home there’s snow left on the 30th even if there’s not in DFW. Lol.

The GFS would give eastern KS a lot but not Mac down to ICT.

Yeah I think we'll see that band trend southwest over the coming days, I'm actually afraid it'll miss me to my southwest and southwest Kansas and western Oklahoma cash in. I'd be fine with that though, it would set me up well for the next system that will have the clipper train.

[wxman57]

I'm definitely seeing a trend in the models. Now, the high center entering Montana is closer to 1050mb, which is not that unusual in winter. Models are now predicting around 20F for the coldest in D-FW and upper 20s for Houston. Just an average winter cold front. Perhaps a little colder than average, but nothing close to the extremes of 1983, 1989, or 2021. I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

From the start, I didn't think that the upper-air pattern looked right for a big Arctic dump through TX. Temps in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories remain barely below zero. Let's see what can develop in the way of cold air up there this weekend. The flow pattern still doesn't look right for an Arctic air dump down here. Sure, it could be somewhat colder than what the overnight models are predicting. I am pretty confident about one thing - chances of an 80F Christmas remain low.

I may need to change my avatar back...

[wxman57]

Can someone please link me to the site that has the GFS output in, I think, 3 hour intervals. You enter your cities call letters. It shows temps, precip, amounts. Very useful. I used to have it saved. I asked earlier but I think the thread was moving too fast.

Here's the site I use. Put in the 3-letter ID, get whatever model run you want and the start time. Choose the output to be in text and you get the data in columns that can be copied to a spreadsheet. Temps will be in Celsius, so you have to add a C-F conversion formula to the spreadsheet. Precip may need a conversion from mm to inches, too.

https://www.ready.noaa.gov/READYcmetus.php

[SnowintheFalls]

I'm definitely seeing a trend in the models. Now, the high center entering Montana is closer to 1050mb, which is not that unusual in winter. Models are now predicting around 20F for the coldest in D-FW and upper 20s for Houston. Just an average winter cold front. Perhaps a little colder than average, but nothing close to the extremes of 1983, 1989, or 2021. I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

From the start, I didn't think that the upper-air pattern looked right for a big Arctic dump through TX. Temps in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories remain barely below zero. Let's see what can develop in the way of cold air up there this weekend. The flow pattern still doesn't look right for an Arctic air dump down here. Sure, it could be somewhat colder than what the overnight models are predicting. I am pretty confident about one thing - chances of an 80F Christmas remain low.

I may need to change my avatar back...

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z16.JPG

It may not be the extreme outcome we were looking for but it still beats the heck out the warmness of last Christmas.

[bubba hotep]

I'm definitely seeing a trend in the models. Now, the high center entering Montana is closer to 1050mb, which is not that unusual in winter. Models are now predicting around 20F for the coldest in D-FW and upper 20s for Houston. Just an average winter cold front. Perhaps a little colder than average, but nothing close to the extremes of 1983, 1989, or 2021. I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

From the start, I didn't think that the upper-air pattern looked right for a big Arctic dump through TX. Temps in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories remain barely below zero. Let's see what can develop in the way of cold air up there this weekend. The flow pattern still doesn't look right for an Arctic air dump down here. Sure, it could be somewhat colder than what the overnight models are predicting. I am pretty confident about one thing - chances of an 80F Christmas remain low.

I may need to change my avatar back...

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z16.JPG

I tend to agree. The chances for historic cold seem to be fading and a few cold days with a pretty quick warm up seems to be more likely now. I'm still cautious to fold on the big cold calls, but the model trends have not been in that direction.

[wxman57]

It may not be the extreme outcome we were looking for but it still beats the heck out the warmness of last Christmas.

For my wife and me, it means we'll be confined to the house and not out riding our bikes. She'll be working and I'll be under my electric blanket with a giant pillow-sized heating pad against my back. I'd rather temps at least be above 75 so we could get out and ride. Cold temps are no fun unless it snows, and that's not likely.

[txwxwatcher]

It is not often that professional on-air mets in Houston discuss “legit” shot at snow (a week out no less), but that’s exactly where we are for Christmas weekend down here. Sure would be fun.

https://abc13.com/arctic-blast-white-ch ... /12576536/

[HockeyTx82]

I'm definitely seeing a trend in the models. Now, the high center entering Montana is closer to 1050mb, which is not that unusual in winter. Models are now predicting around 20F for the coldest in D-FW and upper 20s for Houston. Just an average winter cold front. Perhaps a little colder than average, but nothing close to the extremes of 1983, 1989, or 2021. I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

From the start, I didn't think that the upper-air pattern looked right for a big Arctic dump through TX. Temps in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories remain barely below zero. Let's see what can develop in the way of cold air up there this weekend. The flow pattern still doesn't look right for an Arctic air dump down here. Sure, it could be somewhat colder than what the overnight models are predicting. I am pretty confident about one thing - chances of an 80F Christmas remain low.

I may need to change my avatar back...

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z16.JPG

It may not be the extreme outcome we were looking for but it still beats the heck out the warmness of last Christmas.

Wxman57 does not control the weather! Is that defeat I am sensing in that post! We must remain strong and not him sway us!

[TropicalTundra]

It is not often that professional on-air mets in Houston discuss “legit” shot at snow (a week out no less), but that’s exactly where we are for Christmas weekend down here. Sure would be fun.

https://abc13.com/arctic-blast-white-ch ... /12576536/

I'm going to be in Pasadena for Christmas Day so this sounds like a win-win to me

[rwfromkansas]

I'm definitely seeing a trend in the models. Now, the high center entering Montana is closer to 1050mb, which is not that unusual in winter. Models are now predicting around 20F for the coldest in D-FW and upper 20s for Houston. Just an average winter cold front. Perhaps a little colder than average, but nothing close to the extremes of 1983, 1989, or 2021. I don't buy that 6Z GFS run for a second, by the way. It's been way too bullish with west Gulf lows all season. Odds are it doesn't have the pattern right.

From the start, I didn't think that the upper-air pattern looked right for a big Arctic dump through TX. Temps in the northern Yukon and Northwest Territories remain barely below zero. Let's see what can develop in the way of cold air up there this weekend. The flow pattern still doesn't look right for an Arctic air dump down here. Sure, it could be somewhat colder than what the overnight models are predicting. I am pretty confident about one thing - chances of an 80F Christmas remain low.

I may need to change my avatar back...

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z16.JPG

Gif regarding the avatar. But, would like a bit more cold. To me upper teens-20 would be perfect with snow. That said, if it is going to be dry, low-mid 30s will at least give the Christmas feel without freezing.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 does not control the weather! Is that defeat I am sensing in that post! We must remain strong and not him sway us!

Oh, I don't? My wall has been reinforced. 00Z models now have the correct height initialized. It took 4.2 trillion more bricks, but it will hold now!

On a more serious note, I do expect more fluctuations in the models over the next 6 days before the front arrives (next Thursday). Uncertainties involve whether or not any short waves traverse the state during the cold weather. Such waves could result in frozen precip. The 06Z GFS is quite bullish on such a wave producing a west Gulf low that results in snow for SE TX and the Gulf Coast on the 26th. Euro sees the same wave, but has the front much farther offshore - too far offshore for any moisture across Texas that could be snow. We won't be confident about any possible snow until maybe next Friday or Saturday (not this weekend).

[wxman57]

It is not often that professional on-air mets in Houston discuss “legit” shot at snow (a week out no less), but that’s exactly where we are for Christmas weekend down here. Sure would be fun.

https://abc13.com/arctic-blast-white-ch ... /12576536/

I'm going to be in Pasadena for Christmas Day so this sounds like a win-win to me

Pasadena in east Houston, or Pasadena in California? There's a big difference.

[SnowintheFalls]

I will say, it was fun seeing the pages fly by for a while. I would wake up checking the board on my phone to see multiple pages of new posts to get caught up on. Hopefully we get plenty more excitement like that before winter's end!

[Edwards Limestone]

winter cancel again?

[Abdullah]

It's super interesting to see you all here call a high of 50 degrees warm and miserable when in Florida we call a low of 50 degrees very cold

[Iceresistance]

winter cancel again?

No, it's "Winter Delayed".

[orangeblood]

GFS Op becoming more aggressive with the S/Ws coming down the back side of the Arctic HP for Christmas weekend. Seems to have backing from several of its Ensemble members, not an outlier at the moment and something that bears watching!

Christmas Eve

[Iceresistance]

WPC analysis has a 1056 mb HP over Alaska.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://imgur.com/yRyYsgD

Texas friends scored big in 2021 but where can I cash out on this right now? Goooo west gulf low!

Not sure if it’s possible, but I’m going to need that snow to start about 250 miles west down I-10…

You asked and the 6z GFS delivered lol

I saw that, and I want more!! I’ll take 2 feet of the flakey stuff in Northern Bexar County and a frozen Canyon Lake. Hopefully the GFS continues to predict snow for Central Texas on down to the coast.

[jaguars_22]

Ummm guys the ICON just fell of its rocker!!!!