Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txwxwatcher]

Ummm guys the ICON just fell of its rocker!!!!

What’s it show?!

[jaguars_22]

Coldest temps I have seen

[bubba hotep]

Huge westward shift on the 12z ICON as it crushes any thinking of a growing PNA and totally blasts the EPO region.

[orangeblood]

Coldest temps I have seen

It's going to that Euro Op solution from a couple of days ago...the Pacific is way too chaotic to conclude anything one way or another at this point

[txtwister78]

[Edwards Limestone]

winter cancel again?

did my anti-jinx work yet? C'mon ICON!

[Ntxw]

@TheProfessor's southern route.

[wxman57]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

[bubba hotep]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

Yep, this was a huge 12hr OP run shift that is a significant outlier when compared to the 00z/06z Super ensemble suite.

[txtwister78]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

Very true, however just because in the medium range the trend has gone one way doesn't mean that it won't shift back either. As Bernie Rayno calls it "the old windshield wiper effect". But no question this is one run but I've always felt like Bastardi this would "correct" toward a colder solution for Texas and would be faster down the plains. Maybe not as cold as the big analog years but colder than what OP's have been hinting at thus far. We shall see

[txwxwatcher]

I’ll take 20s or 30s with snow over teens. For that matter I’ll take 20s or 30s over teens regardless, especially with our grid concerns.

[Brent]

That icon run it's snowing here with temps below zero that would be something

[Tireman4]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

I totally agree. I am waiting for Sunday to really start buying into this. The ICON map is colorful and fun to look at, though. Way too soon for me to hop on board.

[bubba hotep]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

Yep, this was a huge 12hr OP run shift that is a significant outlier when compared to the 00z/06z Super ensemble suite.

GFS holds steady through day 5 with only minor changes. So 12z so far, ICON big shift, GFS meh.

[South Texas Storms]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

[txtwister78]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

Yep, this was a huge 12hr OP run shift that is a significant outlier when compared to the 00z/06z Super ensemble suite.

GFS holds steady through day 5 with only minor changes. So 12z so far, ICON big shift, GFS meh.

That was definitely a shift west with the GFS in terms of a colder solution on the 12z run but again need to see if these are trends and not just snapshot going forward.

[PTrackerLA]

1063mb HP entering Wyoming on 12z GFS...

[orangeblood]

Just because a particular model fits what you would like to see happen doesn't make it the correct solution. Look for trends and a consensus.

This is extremely cold/dense Arctic Air, models can't handle the 500mb flow over the top of it. They shove it east way too quickly...we've seen this song and dance over and over and over again.

I don't believe this is "wanting a certain solution" like you make it out to be, we're using historical context...models should start trending back west and southwest with the digging trough. How far, don't know yet. But the shove east too quickly is a broken record, It happens almost every winter

[Ntxw]

I think the 12z ICON may be starting a trend. The Canadian and to some degree the GFS are now shifting the trough farther west over the Great Basin again.

Yeah 6z GFS was not ideal but that was one shift, 12z shifted back westward.

We want to see energy dive down the Great Basin, topography tends to tug on these troughs.

[rwfromkansas]

GFS Op becoming more aggressive with the S/Ws coming down the back side of the Arctic HP for Christmas weekend. Seems to have backing from several of its Ensemble members, not an outlier at the moment and something that bears watching!

Christmas Eve
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1671170400/1671948000-enChoxxJCww.png

I will order number 6 on the menu please.