Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1861 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:38 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1862 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:43 pm



Yeah we’re gonna need that to move 700 miles to the sw please lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1863 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:44 pm



Yes the digging in the Pac NW initially is even better. We still got plenty of time, go west! Like many cases before it, thinking the Great Basin is where it will end up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1864 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote:


Yeah we’re gonna need that to move 700 miles to the sw please lol


Unfortunately that is looking very unlikely. Any snow hope for southern TX and LA will need to come from a secondary disturbance on the back side of the trough. We will need it to dig farther west as well like the 6z GFS showed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1865 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:


Yes the digging in the Pac NW initially is even better. We still got plenty of time, go west! Like many cases before it, thinking the Great Basin is where it will end up.


That would be one heck of a shift.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1866 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:51 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:


Yeah we’re gonna need that to move 700 miles to the sw please lol


Unfortunately that is looking very unlikely. Any snow hope for southern TX and LA will need to come from a secondary disturbance on the back side of the trough. We will need it to dig farther west as well like the 6z GFS showed.


12z seems to have some of that energy but it gets sheared out as it moves down in regard to the secondary.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1867 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 16, 2022 1:58 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:


Yes the digging in the Pac NW initially is even better. We still got plenty of time, go west! Like many cases before it, thinking the Great Basin is where it will end up.


That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1868 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yes the digging in the Pac NW initially is even better. We still got plenty of time, go west! Like many cases before it, thinking the Great Basin is where it will end up.


That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.


That would be like 1,000 miles west from what it’s showing now. That seems impossible but I guess it’s happened before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1869 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:05 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.


That would be like 1,000 miles west from what it’s showing now. That seems impossible but I guess it’s happened before.

Nothing is impossible with this weather as the PNA is refusing to become positive.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1870 Postby gboudx » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:07 pm

The big question that will start getting press soon is whether ERCOT is ready or not. I'm not trusting that they are. We experienced on and off(mostly off) rolling blackouts in Feb 21. Based on you fine folks here, we were prepared as I got firewood days in advance. I did the same thing yesterday, adding another 1/4 chord to our inventory. We won't be caught off guard wanting for heat. Whatever happens with temps and precipitation happens. I'm just giddy it'll feel like Christmas this year instead of debating to wear shorts or not.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1871 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:08 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1872 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:12 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1873 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.


That would be like 1,000 miles west from what it’s showing now. That seems impossible but I guess it’s happened before.


Probably not that far west as that storm, but the key is initially. Regardless of later outcomes, you can shift hundreds of miles after cyclogenesis downstream with just little shifts early on. Take the 0z Euro vs 12z for instance kicking out of the four corners vs Dakotas. And that happened in 1 run. Surely Utah to Nevada isn't that far :lol:.

Whatever the shifts it's likely to round the base of the cold air gradient anyway. The further the cold pushes, the better the shifts will be.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1874 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:26 pm

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1875 Postby txtwister78 » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:36 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1876 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yes the digging in the Pac NW initially is even better. We still got plenty of time, go west! Like many cases before it, thinking the Great Basin is where it will end up.


That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.


2009 might be a better analog than 2004 (the former actually showing up on CPC's analogs). I'd be down with that; blizzard conditions from Wichita to DFW. Southeast Kansas came away with 6-8" from that storm and of course Oklahoma was the winner.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1877 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:58 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That would be one heck of a shift.


This happened Christmas Eve 09 on a much smaller scale. El Nino +PNA medium range forecasted a midwest-east coast blizzard. Once the energy dug it kept going south and south through the Great Basin and kicked out in TX.


2009 might be a better analog than 2004 (the former actually showing up on CPC's analogs). I'd be down with that; blizzard conditions from Wichita to DFW. Southeast Kansas came away with 6-8" from that storm and of course Oklahoma was the winner.

And parts of Missouri, I was in Springfield, MO when it happened. I still remember the snow even if I was 6!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1878 Postby rwfromkansas » Fri Dec 16, 2022 2:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:FWIW love seeing the ridge shoot up the east coast, melting their hearts and dreams, panic attacks out there. The more it does, the colder and snowier we get.



The east coast gets plenty of snow. Any time they miss out is a good day for us. lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1879 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:06 pm

I'm going to need some help on the Kuchera Ratio Snowfall for the 12z ICON

The 10:1 Ratio snowfall for this system on December 22nd is 7 inches in Enid, 2-3 inches in my area, 3-4 inches in Tulsa, 5-6 inches in Springfield, MO.

The snowfall occurs at temperatures between -5°F and -12°F.

What is the true snowfall ratio and snowfall totals?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1880 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:08 pm

Sleet mixing with rain across East Texas this afternoon. More sleet in heavier showers.
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