Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Taking out the +PNA ridge and increasing the East Coast Ridge with the middle trough on the Euro?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif

I like how that extends into the SE too.

[Ntxw]

Euro is cold for Euro standards. .

[Iceresistance]

Euro is cold for Euro standards. .

If only we can get the storm system with the snow to shift further west from a trending stronger ECR (East Coast Ridge).

[Ntxw]

Euro is cold for Euro standards. .

If only we can get this to shift further west from a trending stronger ECR (East Coast Ridge).

Still plenty of time. Ideally you want it to happen within hi-res time frame.

[Cpv17]

Euro is cold for Euro standards. .

If only we can get the storm system with the snow to shift further west from a trending stronger ECR (East Coast Ridge).

Seems like that ECR is trending stronger.

[Sambucol]

Taking out the +PNA ridge and increasing the East Coast Ridge with the middle trough on the Euro?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif

According to this run, would the Arctic mass no longer affect Texas to the upper coast?

[Lagreeneyes03]

[Lagreeneyes03]

Does any of this mean snow next week for North Texas? (DFW)?

[Iceresistance]

Taking out the +PNA ridge and increasing the East Coast Ridge with the middle trough on the Euro?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/trend-ecmwf_full-2022121700-f132.500h_anom.conus.gif

According to this run, would the Arctic mass no longer affect Texas to the upper coast?

No, it falls to the 10s and 20s! It may have trended colder. I'm not too sure on that part.

[Iceresistance]

Does any of this mean snow next week for North Texas? (DFW)?

The odds are higher, but this a tough forecast right now.

[Iceresistance]

Seriously KFOR? You're already calling the possibility of a Blizzard next week? I won't call it unless it's absolutely locked in!

[Brent]

Seriously KFOR? You're already calling the possibility of a Blizzard next week? I won't call it unless it's absolutely locked in!

Mike Morgan I'm not surprised I guess

I was surprised another TV station though is already talking about a White Christmas

[Iceresistance]

Seriously KFOR? You're already calling the possibility of a Blizzard next week? I won't call it unless it's absolutely locked in!

Mike Morgan I'm not surprised I guess

I was surprised another TV station though is already talking about a White Christmas

He's Maniac Mike!

[AubreyStorm]

Via Steve McCauley on Facebook

It may have been a little cool recently, but as they say, we haven't seen anything yet. Our first serious Arctic Blast of the season is on the way and will arrive in north Texas on Thursday bringing sharply colder temperatures with readings falling into the teens by Friday morning with a biting north wind.

The air will be extremely dry so it is unlikely there will be any "significant" precipitation locally, but the big chill of winter will definitely be around for a few days. But keep in mind, this will NOT be a repeat of that infamous Arctic Blast from February of 2021 when the thermometer fell below zero and the ice and snow shut us down. That nonsense will stay well to our north.

This system will likely bring blizzard conditions for much of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, so if your holiday plans take you to these areas next week, stay up to date on what will likely be a potentially very dangerous situation.

[gboudx]

Comment from ERCOT in the Dallas Morning News today.

ERCOT says it expects to have enough power supplies to meet demand next week when a polar blast is forecast to grip the state.

The Texas grid operator says it anticipates having enough power supplies to meet demand next week when a polar blast is forecast to grip the Lone Star State.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said Friday that it has notified utilities and power plant owners that temperatures will be 25 degrees or lower in the Dallas and San Antonio metro areas Thursday through Dec. 26.

ERCOT said it has worked with state utility regulators to put in place reforms to fortify the grid during extreme weather in the wake of a deadly winter storm in February 2021 that caused massive blackouts for days.

Next week, Texas and other central U.S. states will be gripped by a bulge in the polar vortex that could challenge regional records that date to 1983, said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.

[GeauxTigers]

Good morning everyone! I will be traveling to northwest Arkansas next week for holidays. Will there be any winter precip from this arctic blast up there i should worry about? I know it’s still early, but any heads up predictions are welcome and appreciated.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z gfs takes a step in the right direction, looks similar to the 0z icon

[WinterMax]

Good morning everyone! I will be traveling to northwest Arkansas next week for holidays. Will there be any winter precip from this arctic blast up there i should worry about? I know it’s still early, but any heads up predictions are welcome and appreciated.

Bitterly cold, maybe some light snow between Monday and Thursday, coldest Thursday nighy, minus 1.

[wxman57]

One thing that all models agree on is that the coldest morning will be next Friday.  Temperatures in Houston range from 15 (CMC/CMC ensembles) to 28 (GFS).  Euro operational and ICON next coldest at 20F and 17F, respective on Friday.  EC ensembles are close to GFS ensembles - considerably less cold, with a hard freeze of 25 on Friday followed by a couple light freezes Sat/Sun. I would add that the EC and ICON both indicate a short wave moving across Texas on Christmas Eve. No precip with the Euro, but the ICON does indicate light snow in south-central Texas. It doesn't go out far enough to see any extent of the snow. Moisture would be limited to down south. Nothing up in the D-FW area.

Still no really cold air in northern Canada, though it remains quite cold in Alaska. Generally, cold in Alaska means warmer down here. Watch for any warming in Alaska in the coming days. I'm hoping that the GFS is too cold and that we will remain above freezing. However, I suspect the end result will be a low around 24 on Friday +/- 5 degrees. Not as cold Sat/Sun/Mon. With that short wave moving across, it would not be impossible to see snow in Houston on Christmas Eve. Moisture would be limited, though. Not a repeat of 2004.

I've reinforced my wall as much as I can. My jet is fueled and ready to depart on a moment's notice. However, if there is a chance of snow here Christmas Eve then I'll hang around for that. I've always said that the only use for cold air is to produce snow.

[Ntxw]

Celsius