Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

The ICON is starting to favor the Western Trough more and more, however, I think that the strength of the Low Pressure is too strong to dive south and may accelerate to the east too quickly.

[Iceresistance]

The ICON is starting to favor the Western Trough more and more, however, I think that the strength of the Low Pressure is too strong to dive south and may accelerate to the east too quickly.

Nope, it did dive farther south than I expected it to be, but still shunted to the east.

Still trending west.

[bubba hotep]

Pick your northern stream s/w orientation lol

18z ICON



12z Euro



12z GFS

[Ntxw]

Very minor shifts on 18z GFS, largely similar to 12z run. Maybe zone now there is some consistency?

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is insane, still showing 1067 mb HP over Montana

I still get the Blizzard

[Brent]

Tulsa AFD

Temp profiles indicate that any precip looks to quickly change
over to mostly snow Wednesday night/Thursday and taper off
Thursday afternoon/evening. Gusty winds of 25 to near 40 mph
behind the cold front could create areas of blowing snow
Thursday. For this forecast...will carry the greater potential
again across Northeast Oklahoma into far Northwest Arkansas.
However...this remains dependent on amount of moisture/track of
the upper low. Continue to monitor latest forecast updates.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman AFD

A cold front will move across the area Monday night into Tuesday.
How cold the air will be behind this front on Tuesday is somewhat
uncertain. At this time will go with a blended approach, but colder
temperatures are certainly possible, especially across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Surface winds are expected to become
east to southeast on Wednesday which should recirculate cooler air
to our east.



***The most impactful weather period still appears to be late
Wednesday and especially Thursday.***

This is when a very fast moving and strong cold front will bring
sharply colder temperatures into Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Besides the cold air, very strong winds can be expected behind the
front. NBM 90th percentile wind gusts from 6Z Thursday through 6Z
Friday suggest some low end potential of damaging wind gusts (50
knots). And these gusts are mainly centered over west central and
southwestern Oklahoma.

Frigid wind chill values can also be expected Thursday into Thursday
night with values between -5F to -15F (perhaps lower) across the
northern half of Oklahoma and 0F to -5F above across the southern
half of the state and northern Texas.

A shortwave trough within northwest flow will also approach the
southern Plains late Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in
some potential for accumulating snowfall. The operational 12Z GFS
seems a little bullish in its snowfall amounts given the fast
movement of this system. For now will keep snowfall amounts on the
lower side and mainly across north central Oklahoma.

[Gotwood]

If the GFS is correct I can’t help but think that snow track gets more south into DFW.

[Ntxw]

In short DFW and North Texas only needs a slight south/west shift from the GFS. Get this thing to El Paso or even Midland. Or in reality the moisture follows the vortmax.

Everyone is watching the little shortwave coming over the weekend. May generate snow if it can find moisture for someone.

[Quixotic]

Thinking of the 2009 Christmas blizzard. That dove quite a bit south.

[Texas Snow]

FWD Introduces Snow for first time

Wednesday
Cloudy, with a high near 48. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night
A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Thursday
A slight chance of rain and snow before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 13.

Friday
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 26.

Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.

While confidence is high in the arctic intrusion late in the week,
there is still considerable disparity with how deep into the
Plains the associated polar trough will extend. The general trend
is wetter, albeit with generally low PoPs and QPF. But with any
upper forcing trailing behind the front, it`s prudent to
acknowledge the potential for light snow to mix with the rain,
with a possible transition to all snow before the precipitation
comes to an end. It should be emphasized that amounts appear to be
quite light at this time, and a further assessment of timing,
placement, amounts, and precipitation type will continue during
the coming days.

[Ntxw]

Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas will likely experience the strongest winds from this front/event.

[TheProfessor]

You DFW Peeps should get ready for a snowstorm. I got a feeling it makes down your way.

[Iceresistance]

You DFW Peeps should get ready for a snowstorm. I got a feeling it makes down your way.

That is what I'm doing, preparing for the extreme, which is 12+ inches of snow on a blizzard.

Why do I think that Central Oklahoma is going to be the winner again?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

You DFW Peeps should get ready for a snowstorm. I got a feeling it makes down your way.

That is what I'm doing, preparing for the extreme, which is 12+ inches of snow on a blizzard.

Why do I think that Central Oklahoma is going to be the winner again?

Because that is what you want?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas will likely experience the strongest winds from this front/event.

https://i.imgur.com/Zuiijgx.gif

I’d love some negative wind chills. Will feel amazing.

[Iceresistance]

You DFW Peeps should get ready for a snowstorm. I got a feeling it makes down your way.

That is what I'm doing, preparing for the extreme, which is 12+ inches of snow on a blizzard.

Why do I think that Central Oklahoma is going to be the winner again?

Because that is what you want?

No, it always happens to me as the Central Oklahoma Jackpot! I get the worst of it or none of it.

[Iceresistance]

I found this from College of DuPage


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022121718-GFS-SGP-winter-kuchsnow24-30-216-100.gif

The 18z GFS has 4 storm systems in a span of 9 days!

[rwfromkansas]

I just read up on the 2009 snowstorm. I remember that vaguely since I was in Abilene at my wife's family at the time. I remember wishing the heavier snow to the north would go south. But, we got a few inches at least.

This seems potentially eerily similar with the blizzard potential.

[sphelps8681]

You DFW Peeps should get ready for a snowstorm. I got a feeling it makes down your way.

That is what I'm doing, preparing for the extreme, which is 12+ inches of snow on a blizzard.

Why do I think that Central Oklahoma is going to be the winner again?

Because that is what you want?

I don't want anything to do with this mess. Ya'll can have it all day.