Texas Winter 2022-2023

[EnnisTx]

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

[bubba hotep]

Nice little rain event this morning in the Austin area. Got about 1.5" of rain in several hours at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic south Austin.

It was raining here in Amarillo last night and I figured that was a good sign for the rest of yall that were looking to pick up rain from this system.

[Portastorm]

Nice little rain event this morning in the Austin area. Got about 1.5" of rain in several hours at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic south Austin.

Good to see central Texas cash in before the arctic hammer. I wonder if the San Antonio folks got any. They need it badly.

Yes, they're getting some too this morning. Disturbance affecting areas along and east of I-35. Even had some thunder and lightning this morning in a few of the cells. Still ongoing.

I wonder if this rainfall will help serve as insulation for the grass and some plants and help alleviate damage from the Arctic Hammer coming later this week?

[bubba hotep]

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

Oklahoma is a bit surprising but I never figured NTX was really in the game on this one. However, never give up on last minute trends!

[Cpv17]

Seeing a lot of troughing out in west Texas after we get done with this Artic blast. Maybe a wet pattern?

[wxman57]

The ICON is certainly the cold outlier for Thu/Fri, even colder than the Canadian - neither of which I think is correct. For us in Houston, temps Friday morning may range from 18-22 degrees with a high of 28-30 degrees. Very strong wind post-FROPA. Not cold enough for me to depart to Sydney, but I have a giant heating pad for my back and two electric blankets. Haven't decided if we'll be turning the water off Thursday evening. Our pipes are in attic, which will reach outside air temperature. There is some insulation, but probably not enough. Will have gas for my generator if the power goes out, though I don't expect any prolonged power outages.

Note that I will NOT be running around outside in my swimsuit (as has been mentioned) in the cold air, nor will I be staying up late to monitor temps.

Here are the 00Z model plots for central Houston.

[gpsnowman]

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

Cosgrove this morning mentions it is probably an Ozarks up through the Great Lakes/ Chicago Milwaukee track.

[Cpv17]

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

Cosgrove this morning mentions it is probably an Ozarks up through the Great Lakes/ Chicago Milwaukee track.

He’s also been very adamant about a return to colder weather mid to late January.

[orangeblood]

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

Cosgrove this morning mentions it is probably an Ozarks up through the Great Lakes/ Chicago Milwaukee track.

He’s also been very adamant about a return to colder weather mid to late January.

He's banking on the EPO tanking again after it goes positive after Christmas...still way too early to tell and a lot of mixed signals that could push this winter in either direction

[Iceresistance]

I don't like this trend, east shift on the 12z GFS.

[Brent]

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

Oklahoma doesn't look all that great for chances at accumulating snow either.

Oklahoma is a bit surprising but I never figured NTX was really in the game on this one. However, never give up on last minute trends!

If it ends up not snowing much here I think its the fact the temperatures are going to crash so fast. Most of our real snowstorms are closer to 20s than zero basically

But we're not dead yet. I just don't have a good vibe about it today

[Stormcenter]

If I recall correctly the past snow events in the South especially the big ones are very rarely predicted this far in advance so
I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. IMO

Let’s face it, Texas and Louisiana aren’t getting any frozen precip out of this. We’ll have to wait for the next system….

[gboudx]

From Jeff Lindner:

Arctic Air Event:
Impressive arctic high pressure system over NW Canada will move SSE toward the Montana border and then into the US over the next 24-48 hours. Surface pressures in the 1055-1060mb range will be positioned just north of the Montana border by tomorrow and Tuesday and then dump southward into the high plains. Very cold and dense arctic air mass will be unleashed down the plains and arrive into N TX late Wednesday and off the TX coast by Thursday evening.

Will continue to side with the fastest of the guidance on the arrival of the arctic front with mid afternoon most likely across SE TX….this may need to be sped up some as these types of air masses tend to move south faster than expected given their extreme density. Temperatures will warm into the 60’s ahead of this front and then the bottom is going to fall out with temperatures falling 20-30 degrees in a few hours post front and howling north winds. Freeze line will quickly advance into the region Thursday early evening and all the way to the coast by midnight. Impressive cold air advection will be in place with north winds of 25-30mph and gust of 40-45mph across the region. This will result in wind chills falling into the 10’s and 1’s over the entire region by late evening Thursday. I cannot stress enough how abrupt this change will be Thursday evening. Wind chills by Friday AM may fall below 0 for areas north of I-10…wind chill advisories/warnings will almost certainly be required along with hard freeze warnings and likely a wind advisory and gale warning for the Gulf waters.

Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures well below freezing for the entire area by late evening Thursday and below hard freeze criteria by Friday morning (24 or lower for 2 hours or longer). Have trended lows a bit colder into the upper 10’s/near 20 to the coast, mid 10’s to I-10 and low 10’s north of HWY 105. Temperatures of this magnitude will be capable of causing damage to unprotected infrastructure and vegetation.

Cold arctic high sinks into Texas on Friday and temperatures will only rebound to near freezing for most areas…many areas will likely remain in the 20’s for much of the day and then another hard freeze for much of the area Friday night/Sat AM.

No precipitation is expected with this cold air event and there will NOT be any travel related concerns on roadways. However, it should be understood that a lack of snow/ice does not reduce the threat of the potentially damaging impacts of the cold air

Duration:
Many areas north of I-10 will likely experience 30-40 hours below freezing from late Thursday through midday Saturday. Areas south of I-10 have a slightly better chance or reaching 32-34 Friday afternoon, but this may be optimistic and many of those areas may also stay below freezing for an extended period of time as well.

Preparations:
Maximum cold weather actions will be needed for this upcoming cold air outbreak to help mitigate property damage. Additionally, with wind chills falling to dangerous levels, it will be important to limit outdoor exposure as much as possible. All preparations for this cold air outbreak should be completed by Thursday midday.

Proper winterization of any exposed pipes/plumbing will be needed to prevent damage. Sprinkler systems must be shut off and properly drained. If leaving out of town for the upcoming holidays, shut off the main water supply and drain pipes to prevent damage should they burst. Pipes/plumbing on elevated homes must be protected from the ground to the entry point of the structure.

Pets/livestock will require proper shelter to protect from the cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills. Prolonged exposure to the forecasted temperatures and wind may be fatal to unprotected livestock and pets. Monitor water sources as typical sources may freeze over.

Tropical plants/vegetation will require maximum freeze protection. Unprotected tropical vegetation will be killed and even protect vegetation will likely suffer heavy damage given the advective nature of the freeze and reduction is usefulness of the “greenhouse effect” of covering sensitive vegetation.

Persons should limit outdoor exposure during the cold as wind chills will fall to dangerous levels. Utilize heating sources properly to reduce the risk of fire and carbon monoxide poisoning.

[rwfromkansas]

Well looks like everybody gets shafted. Even my hometown gets only an inch on the new GFS.

Well, on to the next.

Sorry Tulsa. I thought you had this one in the bag.

[Cpv17]

Cosgrove this morning mentions it is probably an Ozarks up through the Great Lakes/ Chicago Milwaukee track.

He’s also been very adamant about a return to colder weather mid to late January.

He's banking on the EPO tanking again after it goes positive after Christmas...still way too early to tell and a lot of mixed signals that could push this winter in either direction

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg/epo/box/1671062400-cYlcpqzBoXUgrb2.png

Hmm that’s interesting. Doesn’t the new weeklies come out today?

[rwfromkansas]

With such deep cold air why is the storm so far north? I thought they usually follow the front?

[TheProfessor]

The dry trends are due to a shallower trough on the latest model runs, which limits how much moisture the storm can tap in to. My expectation was for this storm to dig much further south than the models expect and it still is so I'm not to worried about the drier runs yet.

[Iceresistance]

Everything is shifting east.

[TheProfessor]

Everything is shifting east.

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

[harp]

Everything is shifting east.

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

What makes you think it may dig further south? It hasn’t trended that way on the models.