Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

The backside S/W on Christmas Eve is something to watch closely...GFS is getting a little more aggressive with that feature. Similar setup to NYE 2000 which was a surprise event

[TheProfessor]

Everything is shifting east.

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

What makes you think it may dig further south? It hasn’t trended that way on the models.

Based on hundreds of other storm systems that had this type of cold to go with it. Right now the surface and upper levels don't match up. One has to give and in this case due to the Arctic cold it will be the upper levels that does. On top of that the energy on the backside of the trough favors digging.

[Gotwood]

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

What makes you think it may dig further south? It hasn’t trended that way on the models.

Based on hundreds of other storm systems that had this type of cold to go with it. Right now the surface and upper levels don't match up. One has to give and in this case due to the Arctic cold it will be the upper levels that does. On top of that the energy on the backside of the trough favors digging.

From your lips to Gods ears. Praying for snow to make it to North Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

What makes you think it may dig further south? It hasn’t trended that way on the models.

Based on hundreds of other storm systems that had this type of cold to go with it. Right now the surface and upper levels don't match up. One has to give and in this case due to the Arctic cold it will be the upper levels that does. On top of that the energy on the backside of the trough favors digging.

Don’t do that. Don’t give me hope.

[cheezyWXguy]

The backside S/W on Christmas Eve is something to watch closely...GFS is getting a little more aggressive with that feature. Similar setup to NYE 2000 which was a surprise event
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/snow_24hr_kuchera/1671451200/1671915600-WhY3oEujWn0.png

I was wondering about this. Showed up on the gfs the other day, but disappeared so I stopped thinking about it, but yeah this would be a nice surprise

[harp]

The east shifts aren't our problem, there were further east runs that still gave us good snow. The problem is that the upper trough doesn't match the surface right now. The cold dives southward but the trough stops digging. This cuts off moisture. If the trough in reality ends up digging far more like I think it will, we're back in the game

What makes you think it may dig further south? It hasn’t trended that way on the models.

Based on hundreds of other storm systems that had this type of cold to go with it. Right now the surface and upper levels don't match up. One has to give and in this case due to the Arctic cold it will be the upper levels that does. On top of that the energy on the backside of the trough favors digging.

. Do you think the models will eventually pick up on this, or will it be a last second thing?

[Tireman4]

I wonder, (out loud), would it be cold enough for Gulf Effect showers? I know you would have to have a return wind from the Gulf. Also, I wonder, could there be lake effect showers (Clear Lake, for example) that happened during the Christmas freeze of 1983?

[Ralph's Weather]

The backside S/W on Christmas Eve is something to watch closely...GFS is getting a little more aggressive with that feature. Similar setup to NYE 2000 which was a surprise event
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/scentus/snow_24hr_kuchera/1671451200/1671915600-WhY3oEujWn0.png

I am def watching it closely. For now I'm only officially calling for flurries Christmas Eve but these kind of system don't have to have much moisture to drop accumulating snow.
GFS has the vort max coming across near Red River other models are across Central Texas. Models all showing some mid level moisture for northern 1/3 of state but dry south of there. Strengthen vort a bit and keep it along I 20 and there is a shot of snow Sat afternoon and evening.

[wxman57]

I wonder, (out loud), would it be cold enough for Gulf Effect showers? I know you would have to have a return wind from the Gulf. Also, I wonder, could there be lake effect showers (Clear Lake, for example) that happened during the Christmas freeze of 1983?

There will be no return flow off the Gulf to produce precip. It is true that the south shore of Clear Lake got an inch of snow Christmas Eve (lake-effect). Rigs in the Gulf also reported snow in 1983. The sub-freezing air will be deep enough for that by Saturday, but the moisture will be gone. Can't rule out any lake-effect snow showers Friday, with snow forming in the lower 2-4 thousand feet thick sub-freezing layer.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is definitely warmer (less cold). Only a moderate freeze here in Houston Friday and a brief light freeze Saturday. It's also much drier across N. TX and OK. My new favorite model! We still do not have a cold front to focus on. The front will take shape across Montana and the Dakotas on Wednesday morning.

[Iceresistance]

Now under a Wind Chill Watch for the Blue Norther for Thursday.

[orangeblood]

12Z GFS is definitely warmer (less cold). Only a moderate freeze here in Houston Friday and a brief light freeze Saturday. It's also much drier across N. TX and OK. My new favorite model! We still do not have a cold front to focus on. The front will take shape across Montana and the Dakotas on Wednesday morning.

Seems a little disingenuous of you to not mention the current -45 to -50 C temps in our “Source Region”

[Iceresistance]

12Z GFS is definitely warmer (less cold). Only a moderate freeze here in Houston Friday and a brief light freeze Saturday. It's also much drier across N. TX and OK. My new favorite model! We still do not have a cold front to focus on. The front will take shape across Montana and the Dakotas on Wednesday morning.

Seems a little disingenuous of you to not mention the current -45 to -50 C temps in our “Source Region”
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/rtma-anl/alaska/t2m_c/1671469200-Pr1sNUp3goI.png

Is this colder than what the models expected?

[Snowman67]

The ICON is certainly the cold outlier for Thu/Fri, even colder than the Canadian - neither of which I think is correct. For us in Houston, temps Friday morning may range from 18-22 degrees with a high of 28-30 degrees. Very strong wind post-FROPA. Not cold enough for me to depart to Sydney, but I have a giant heating pad for my back and two electric blankets. Haven't decided if we'll be turning the water off Thursday evening. Our pipes are in attic, which will reach outside air temperature. There is some insulation, but probably not enough. Will have gas for my generator if the power goes out, though I don't expect any prolonged power outages.

Note that I will NOT be running around outside in my swimsuit (as has been mentioned) in the cold air, nor will I be staying up late to monitor temps.

Here are the 00Z model plots for central Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z19.JPG

If your attic is reaching outdoor air temp when it is 15-20F outside, you definitely need more insulation.

[wxman57]

It is definitely a bit "chilly" in the Yukon and Alaska, as models had predicted. Nothing too extreme, though. I'm afraid my wall may not hold.

[wxman57]

The ICON is certainly the cold outlier for Thu/Fri, even colder than the Canadian - neither of which I think is correct. For us in Houston, temps Friday morning may range from 18-22 degrees with a high of 28-30 degrees. Very strong wind post-FROPA. Not cold enough for me to depart to Sydney, but I have a giant heating pad for my back and two electric blankets. Haven't decided if we'll be turning the water off Thursday evening. Our pipes are in attic, which will reach outside air temperature. There is some insulation, but probably not enough. Will have gas for my generator if the power goes out, though I don't expect any prolonged power outages.

Note that I will NOT be running around outside in my swimsuit (as has been mentioned) in the cold air, nor will I be staying up late to monitor temps.

Here are the 00Z model plots for central Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z19.JPG

If your attic is reaching outdoor air temp when it is 15-20F outside, you definitely need more insulation.

That is wrong. Your attic is not an insulated space, unless you are using it as a living area. It needs to be the same temperature as the outside air in winter to prevent moisture build-up. Insulation is on the floor of the attic, preventing heat loss through your ceiling. If it's not the same temperature as outside air then you need more insulation in your ceiling (floor of the attic). Attics need very good ventilation, particularly in winter to prevent mold growth. That's why a continuous ridge vent along with continuous soffit vents are recommended. Have to get the moisture out of the attic in winter. As a result, the attic will be close to the outside air temp.

That same good ventilation, along with a good radiant heat barrier, will keep attic temperature close to the outside air temp in summer.

[Texas Snow]

[Tireman4]

Thundering here in the Gulfgate/Hobby area of Houston.

[TropicalTundra]

Thundering here in the Gulfgate/Hobby area of Houston.

41 degrees and rain. Was thundering earlier though.

[Cpv17]

I just purchased the Ambient Weather WS-2000 weather station off Amazon. I hope it’s a good one. I read a lot of reviews and this is supposedly the best one. Though I’m bummed out it’s not coming before Thursday. Not supposed to get it till Saturday. Oh well. Signed up for the Amazon card and got $150 off my order. Not too shabby.