Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

Hopefully the Tulsa HWO from an hour and a half ago is still onto something


A band of snow is expected to spread across the area behind
the front Thursday into Thursday evening. Uncertainties remain
with snow location and intensity, however a window of near
blizzard like conditions may develop across northeast Oklahoma
where visibilities are greatly reduced by blowing snow.
Overall snowfall amounts remain forecast in the one to four
inch range with highest amounts near the Oklahoma Kansas border.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts and expect travel impacts
across the region on Thursday.

[wxman57]

All the 12Z operationals & ensembles are in. This is for downtown Houston. GFS (green) and UKMET (red) are the warm outliers. Canadian (blue/blue dashed) and ICON are the cold outliers. I think the EC, EC ens, and GFS ensembles may be closer to reality. Not cold enough for me, but it'll have to do. I plan on a long bike ride on Friday (shorts & short sleeve jersey). Should be a nice, brisk 25-29 degrees with a 25-35 mph wind. Quite pleasant.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12Z19.JPG

Could you do one for Austin, if you don't mind. Just curious what it shows. I'm prepared to cover hose bibs/let drip, cover plants, open cabinets, etc. I'll be here until Christmas mid-morning when we leave for an overnight trip. So am here for the strongest of the Siberian invasion at least.

I do have a call with a utility out there tomorrow morning, but I'll be plotting tonight's 00Z runs. Temps in Austin may be very close to those in that graphic. Euro is only 1 deg colder there on Friday morning.

Note that dripping faucets will not help. Opening cabinets? There's no water pipe behind our interior cabinets. That won't do any good. If you're in a 1-story house with pipes in the attic, then you may consider shutting the water to the house off Thursday afternoon. Opening (and leave open) all faucets (sink, shower, bathtub, etc). Temps may not rise above freezing Friday, but you could probably turn the water back on Saturday afternoon. Did your pipes freeze in 2021? If not, then they'll be OK this time.

[Cerlin]

I like the new profile pictures in here….

[Cpv17]

Yikes, Heat Miser got ahold of this New Years Pattern

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_f_anom/1671451200/1672401600-NTmxeQkGZoo.png

Looks like we’re in a pattern of extremes right now. Watch that torch be followed by another shot of cold air later in the month.

[TropicalTundra]

WOW. Mid-day and parts of NW Canada are reading temps of -40 and almost -50's. Apparently tonight some of them are supposed to drop close to -60. Wind chills are going to quite literally be deadly.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not really seeing a torch (-AO doesn't torch). Pacific air for a short moment, but nothing real warm for us. It stays wet too.

[TropicalTundra]

WOW. Mid-day and parts of NW Canada are reading temps of -40 and almost -50's. Apparently tonight some of them are supposed to drop close to -60. Wind chills are going to quite literally be deadly.

[Iceresistance]

WOW. Mid-day and parts of NW Canada are reading temps of -40 and almost -50's. Apparently tonight some of them are supposed to drop close to -60. Wind chills are going to quite literally be deadly.

https://i.imgur.com/SQFcIcn.png

OML! That is brutal!

[TXdaddy217]

You know Winter is here when wxman57 becomes the Snow Miser
Anyways, looks like the Abilene area won't get snow but the Temps and wind chill will definitely bite. Got me a brand new North Face McMurdo coat to keep me warm.

[orangeblood]

Not really seeing a torch (-AO doesn't torch). Pacific air for a short moment, but nothing real warm for us. It stays wet too.

With a Positive EPO like this it just might... Negative AO relaxing quite a bit and even WPO

A big concern for the remainder of winter is the look of the JMA weeklies - they keep this Positive EPO sustained throughout the period after this.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Not really seeing a torch (-AO doesn't torch). Pacific air for a short moment, but nothing real warm for us. It stays wet too.

With a Positive EPO like this it just might... Negative AO relaxing quite a bit as well

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1671451200-AI5vBc5jFZIgrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1671451200-O214eeL6wQsgrb2.png

Yeah, its a quick 3-4 days in the 60s (may touch low 70s in Southern half) before we return to seasonal weather. The EPO pop would do more to wash out the cold than actually keep us in a warm to very warm pattern.

This won't be like the first 10 days of December.

[weatherdude1108]

All the 12Z operationals & ensembles are in. This is for downtown Houston. GFS (green) and UKMET (red) are the warm outliers. Canadian (blue/blue dashed) and ICON are the cold outliers. I think the EC, EC ens, and GFS ensembles may be closer to reality. Not cold enough for me, but it'll have to do. I plan on a long bike ride on Friday (shorts & short sleeve jersey). Should be a nice, brisk 25-29 degrees with a 25-35 mph wind. Quite pleasant.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models12Z19.JPG

Could you do one for Austin, if you don't mind. Just curious what it shows. I'm prepared to cover hose bibs/let drip, cover plants, open cabinets, etc. I'll be here until Christmas mid-morning when we leave for an overnight trip. So am here for the strongest of the Siberian invasion at least.

I do have a call with a utility out there tomorrow morning, but I'll be plotting tonight's 00Z runs. Temps in Austin may be very close to those in that graphic. Euro is only 1 deg colder there on Friday morning.

Note that dripping faucets will not help. Opening cabinets? There's no water pipe behind our interior cabinets. That won't do any good. If you're in a 1-story house with pipes in the attic, then you may consider shutting the water to the house off Thursday afternoon. Opening (and leave open) all faucets (sink, shower, bathtub, etc). Temps may not rise above freezing Friday, but you could probably turn the water back on Saturday afternoon. Did your pipes freeze in 2021? If not, then they'll be OK this time.

Two-story house, pipes behind sinks in one of bathrooms and kitchen. They're on south side of house. One hose bib on north side of house. My pipes did not freeze in 2021. I put towels around the hose bibs on exterior of house, taping the towels on the wall, along with letting them drip. In a previous year, I did cover the bib on garage, but it still froze in teens to 20 degree weather (with a cover). So I left a tiny opening for the water to drain through, using duct tape on the towels for the water to drip down through (so towels wouldn't get wet). I also let bathroom and kitchen faucets drip (adjacent to exterior wall of house). I went outside every couple hours during the night to check on the hose bibs, breaking chunks of ice away from drip stream in a blinding snowstorm, along with checking sink/shower faucets. Also covered up Sagos and other plants. I thought I had lost some plants, but most all came back except for a few Indian Hawthornes. Had a couple friends and their two-year old kid come over because they lost water and electricity at their house in east Austin. That week of February 2021 was a stressful week!lol It got down to 6 degrees. I didn't know what to expect. It had never gotten that cold since I've lived here. I didn't get much sleep. I enjoyed cold weather until February 2021.lol

[orangeblood]

Wind Chills across the Central US Thursday Night....

[Cpv17]

Not really seeing a torch (-AO doesn't torch). Pacific air for a short moment, but nothing real warm for us. It stays wet too.

With a Positive EPO like this it just might... Negative AO relaxing quite a bit and even WPO

A big concern for the remainder of winter is the look of the JMA weeklies - they keep this Positive EPO sustained throughout the period after this.

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/epo/box/1671451200-AI5vBc5jFZIgrb2.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/ao/box/1671451200-O214eeL6wQsgrb2.png

So this winter could be a one hit wonder lol

But nah I think we’ll have a couple more chances after this. Jan 20th-Feb 25th timeframe.

[HockeyTx82]

Wind Chills across the Central US Thursday Night....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/central/apparent_temperature_f/1671472800/1671775200-DUMKdCw22uQ.png

Wxman57, now that's some bike riding weather if I ever saw it!

[Cpv17]

Wind Chills across the Central US Thursday Night....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/central/apparent_temperature_f/1671472800/1671775200-DUMKdCw22uQ.png

Tbh I thought wind chills would be colder than this. 0z CMC last night had wind chills in the negatives all the way down towards the coast.

[opticsguy]

The forecast sounding for DFW at 6z Friday is insane. -20C at 925 mB (about 2500ft) blowing at 50-60kt. Even at night it's a dry adiabatic lapse rate so the winds will be gusty with severe turbulence for aircraft.

[wxman57]

Wind Chills across the Central US Thursday Night....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/central/apparent_temperature_f/1671472800/1671775200-DUMKdCw22uQ.png

Wind chill at my house will be about 75F, as I'll be indoors with a heater blowing on me.

[orangeblood]

The forecast sounding for DFW at 6z Friday is insane. -20C at 925 mB (about 2500ft) blowing at 50-60kt. Even at night it's a dry adiabatic lapse rate so the winds will be gusty with severe turbulence for aircraft.

Spot on..these are really dangerous flight conditions for a good portion of the country later this week

Extremely rare to see this type of deep cold this far south…see shallower cold a lot more often

[Tireman4]

The forecast sounding for DFW at 6z Friday is insane. -20C at 925 mB (about 2500ft) blowing at 50-60kt. Even at night it's a dry adiabatic lapse rate so the winds will be gusty with severe turbulence for aircraft.

Spot on..these are really dangerous flight conditions for a good portion of the country later this week

Extremely rare to see this type of deep cold this far south…see shallower cold a lot more often

And this is one of the busiest times of the year, flying wise. Goodness