Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txtwister78]

I wouldn't trust the Euro Weeklies anymore than I trust a 7 day forecast. Lol. I can't tell you how many times those have been wrong and typically love to blowtorch extended "outlooks". I would basically toss those in the "yeah whatever" category for now. Bottom line is after a cold shot like this you can expect a pull back as it relates to a moderation of temps across the US in most regions.

The GFS Ensemble Extended however continues to show the EPO going negative again after the 5th of Jan. Something to watch over the next 10 days, but I definitely wouldn't write anything off in terms of winter being over based on the JMA or the Weeklies. JMA has flip flopped over its last two runs (not unusual btw).

[cheezyWXguy]

Wind Chills across the Central US Thursday Night....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/central/apparent_temperature_f/1671472800/1671775200-DUMKdCw22uQ.png

Wind chill at my house will be about 75F, as I'll be indoors with a heater blowing on me.

Man, with your latest bike ride comment I figured you’d be trying to set up a Houston chapter for the Polar Bear Club

[orangeblood]

I wouldn't trust the Euro Weeklies anymore than I trust a 7 day forecast. Lol. I can't tell you how many times those have been wrong and typically love to blowtorch extended "outlooks". I would basically toss those in the "yeah whatever" category for now. Bottom line is after a cold shot like this you can expect a pull back as it relates to a moderation of temps across the US in most regions.

The GFS Ensemble Extended however continues to show the EPO going negative again after the 5th of Jan. Something to watch over the next 10 days, but I definitely wouldn't write anything off in terms of winter being over based on the JMA or the Weeklies. JMA has flip flopped over its last two runs (not unusual btw).

Just pointing it out because one hit wonder winters have happened several times in the past, no guarantees this type pattern will return.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I just purchased the Ambient Weather WS-2000 weather station off Amazon. I hope it’s a good one. I read a lot of reviews and this is supposedly the best one. Though I’m bummed out it’s not coming before Thursday. Not supposed to get it till Saturday. Oh well. Signed up for the Amazon card and got $150 off my order. Not too shabby.

I have one in Denver. Its a great WS.

[Snowman67]

The ICON is certainly the cold outlier for Thu/Fri, even colder than the Canadian - neither of which I think is correct. For us in Houston, temps Friday morning may range from 18-22 degrees with a high of 28-30 degrees. Very strong wind post-FROPA. Not cold enough for me to depart to Sydney, but I have a giant heating pad for my back and two electric blankets. Haven't decided if we'll be turning the water off Thursday evening. Our pipes are in attic, which will reach outside air temperature. There is some insulation, but probably not enough. Will have gas for my generator if the power goes out, though I don't expect any prolonged power outages.

Note that I will NOT be running around outside in my swimsuit (as has been mentioned) in the cold air, nor will I be staying up late to monitor temps.

Here are the 00Z model plots for central Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00Z19.JPG

If your attic is reaching outdoor air temp when it is 15-20F outside, you definitely need more insulation.

That is wrong. Your attic is not an insulated space, unless you are using it as a living area. It needs to be the same temperature as the outside air in winter to prevent moisture build-up. Insulation is on the floor of the attic, preventing heat loss through your ceiling. If it's not the same temperature as outside air then you need more insulation in your ceiling (floor of the attic). Attics need very good ventilation, particularly in winter to prevent mold growth. That's why a continuous ridge vent along with continuous soffit vents are recommended. Have to get the moisture out of the attic in winter. As a result, the attic will be close to the outside air temp.

That same good ventilation, along with a good radiant heat barrier, will keep attic temperature close to the outside air temp in summer.

WIth all due respect. No it is not wrong. Ideally your attic should be about 10F warmer than cold winter temperatures if it's only use is to store items and not using it for an insulated area. I'm sure there are differences of opinions on this, but there is plenty that supports my position, including those who do it for a living.

[Iceresistance]

I wouldn't trust the Euro Weeklies anymore than I trust a 7 day forecast. Lol. I can't tell you how many times those have been wrong and typically love to blowtorch extended "outlooks". I would basically toss those in the "yeah whatever" category for now. Bottom line is after a cold shot like this you can expect a pull back as it relates to a moderation of temps across the US in most regions.

The GFS Ensemble Extended however continues to show the EPO going negative again after the 5th of Jan. Something to watch over the next 10 days, but I definitely wouldn't write anything off in terms of winter being over based on the JMA or the Weeklies. JMA has flip flopped over its last two runs (not unusual btw).

Just pointing it out because one hit wonder winters have happened several times in the past, no guarantees this type pattern will return.

I don't believe that this is a one hit wonder, the very strong snowpack in the NHEM can allow for another powerful shot of cold air in Early 2023.

In February, we may have a even bigger shot of colder air.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't trust the Euro Weeklies anymore than I trust a 7 day forecast. Lol. I can't tell you how many times those have been wrong and typically love to blowtorch extended "outlooks". I would basically toss those in the "yeah whatever" category for now. Bottom line is after a cold shot like this you can expect a pull back as it relates to a moderation of temps across the US in most regions.

The GFS Ensemble Extended however continues to show the EPO going negative again after the 5th of Jan. Something to watch over the next 10 days, but I definitely wouldn't write anything off in terms of winter being over based on the JMA or the Weeklies. JMA has flip flopped over its last two runs (not unusual btw).

Just pointing it out because one hit wonder winters have happened several times in the past, no guarantees this type pattern will return.

Personally I think the overall weaker strat vortex and -AO favorability bodes well for winter as a whole. The one hit wonders tend to nestle in ++AO. Severe cold is no promise later in winter but keep the -AO and winter chances will come.

[davidiowx]

I just purchased the Ambient Weather WS-2000 weather station off Amazon. I hope it’s a good one. I read a lot of reviews and this is supposedly the best one. Though I’m bummed out it’s not coming before Thursday. Not supposed to get it till Saturday. Oh well. Signed up for the Amazon card and got $150 off my order. Not too shabby.

That’s the one I’ve had for a few years now. It’s a great one and has been through hell numerous times and super strong winds and has never failed.

Awesome! That’s good to know. I just hope it’s easy to use and setup cuz I’m not too smart when it comes to setting up these things lol

I have the same station and I’ve had it for about 2 years now. It’s a great station for the price. I’d say you can’t get better in that price range. I will add, just make sure you can get to the batteries relatively easy, especially if not using lithium. When it gets really cold and the sun isn’t out as much, it can take a toll on the AA batteries. Other than that, I love it. It’s cool to go back and see history over the weeks, months, years and see records and etc.

[cycloneye]

This is ICON for Friday.

[South Texas Storms]

Nice little rain event this morning in the Austin area. Got about 1.5" of rain in several hours at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic south Austin.

Good to see central Texas cash in before the arctic hammer. I wonder if the San Antonio folks got any. They need it badly.

Yeah the north side of SA fared much better than the south side. My parents got 0.50 inch, which was about double the expected amount. I'm thankful!

[Iceresistance]

The odds of the Blizzard in my area has gone down, but not zero.

[SnowintheFalls]

The odds of the Blizzard in my area has gone down, but not zero.

Models giveth and models taketh away. Hopeful that we will have plenty more shots this winter!

[Brent]

The odds of the Blizzard in my area has gone down, but not zero.

Tulsa is still saying there could be a window of near blizzard conditions we shall see. My expectations are definitely low so maybe I'll be surprised. But with that forecast wind I mean assuming there's actually snow...

[Cpv17]

The odds of the Blizzard in my area has gone down, but not zero.

Tulsa is still saying there could be a window of near blizzard conditions we shall see. My expectations are definitely low so maybe I'll be surprised. But with that forecast wind I mean assuming there's actually snow...

Heck if I were you I’d be glad just to get a dusting lol

[Brent]

The odds of the Blizzard in my area has gone down, but not zero.

Tulsa is still saying there could be a window of near blizzard conditions we shall see. My expectations are definitely low so maybe I'll be surprised. But with that forecast wind I mean assuming there's actually snow...

Heck if I were you I’d be glad just to get a dusting lol

Yeah that's pretty much where I'm at now I'm not gonna lie it's been a rough day watching the models back off even though I never fully believed the higher end predictions

[Cerlin]

The GFS isn’t great at this range…I’m gonna hold out some hope for the Hi-Res models once they enter into their more accurate range. I’d expect there to be a southwest shift on the NAM/RGEM if we have any shot.

[TheProfessor]

Well I'm ready for El Niño. I hate having to worry about moisture being available.

[Quixotic]

Well I'm ready for El Niño. I hate having to worry about moisture being available.

I’d rather worry about moisture than cold.

[TheProfessor]

Well I'm ready for El Niño. I hate having to worry about moisture being available.

I’d rather worry about moisture than cold.

It's a little different up here in Kansas, there almost always some cold to tap into. Moisture can be hard to come by though. We're still in a severe drought here.

[Brent]

Well I'm ready for El Niño. I hate having to worry about moisture being available.

I’d rather worry about moisture than cold.

Well that was my theory with this storm and it's not trending well

I'm still struggling with the whole were gonna probably approach zero and yet the storm goes north of us