SWIO: DARIAN - Post-Tropical

[zzzh]

98S INVEST 221211 1800 10.4S 98.4E SHEM 15 1007

[Subtrop]

At 1400 AWST (1230 CCT) Sunday 18 December Tropical Cyclone Darian was named and located approximately 440 kilometres west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Darian is forecast to track slowly to the southeast over the next 48 to 72 hours before tracking west-southwest. See the latest Tropical Cyclone Advice [http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.html] for further details.

Tropical Cyclone Darian is steadily developing over the Indian Ocean to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The worst conditions are expected to be on the southern and western flanks over the next 24 to 48 hours as it passes well to the southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. As a result the islands are not expected to see the worst conditions associated with Darian, however gale force winds are possible from Monday evening and during Tuesday. Similarly, the heaviest rainfall is likely to be to the south and west of the system, and as such the risk of heavy rainfall over the islands will be confined to a scenario in which a cloud band feeding into Darian develops to the east and is slow moving over the islands.

[Yellow Evan]

TXXS22 KNES 181234
TCSSIO

A. 05S (DARIAN)

B. 18/1130Z

C. 12.0S

D. 92.5E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...6.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BERTALAN

[Subtrop]

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:44 pm WST on Monday 19 December 2022

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian (Category 3) was located at 8:00 pm AWST (6:30
pm CCT) near 12.6S 93.4E,

that is 375 km west of Cocos Island and is moving slowly south-east.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian has intensified to Category 3 system and
continues to move slowly south-east. It is forecast to start moving to the west
on Wednesday, taking it further away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Gales are not expected at Cocos (Keeling) Islands however the islands may see
periods of gusty winds and heavy rain over the next 24 to 36 hours before the
system starts to move to the west taking it further away.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 am AWST (2 am CCT).

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

[Hurricane2022]

Here we go

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wow Darian is looking really good.

[InfernoFlameCat]

It’s making a run for Cat 5!

[InfernoFlameCat]

Near full ring of -80C cloud tops in Darian. Eye is also warming. May now be positive.

[Hurricane2022]

I honestly wasn't expecting this.

Probably around 120 - 125 kts now.

[ElectricStorm]

Oh wow, nice storm here, good start to the SHEM season

[Hurricane2022]

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1919 UTC 20/12/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 91.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (254 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 937 hPa

05S DARIAN 221220 1800 14.2S 92.0E SHEM 130 927

[Hurricane2022]

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.2S 92.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 130 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 1225 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN HAS EXCEEDED ALL EXPECTATIONS, AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A 130-KNOT MONSTER. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 30NM WIDE EYE, WITH EYE
TEMPERATURES MEASURED AT +7C AT ANALYSIS TIME, NOW MEASURED AT +14C
AN HOUR LATER. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING SOME FEATURES OF AN ANNULAR
TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH MINIMAL BANDING FEATURES CONSTRAINED TO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF
FAIRLY CONSISTENT -75C CLOUD TOPS. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE
WAS AN SSMIS PASS FROM 201218Z WHICH SHOWED A NEARLY COMPLETE
EYEWALL, THOUGH STILL OPEN ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE AND THE ONE
BANDING FEATURE DISPLACED TO THE WEST. BASED ON THE DRAMATICALLY
IMPROVED INFRARED STRUCTURE, IT CAN BE SAFELY ASSUMED THE EYEWALL
IS NOW COMPLETELY CLOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 30NM EYE IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
AGENCY FIXES BETWEEN 115-140 KNOTS, WITH A SUPPORT FROM THE ADT
(134 KNOTS), AIDT (132 KNOTS), OPEN-AIIR (129 KNOTS) AND THE SATCON
OF 121 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COCOONED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS
WELL. SSTS ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27C AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO
UPWELLING, BUT CLEARLY THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS
MARGINAL PARAMETER.

[Hurricane2022]

[Subtrop]

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:53 am WST on Wednesday 21 December 2022

Severe Tropical Cyclone Darian (Category 5) was located at 8:00 am AWST (6:30
am CCT) near 14.2S 91.2E, that is 650 km west southwest of Cocos Island and
moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to move out of the Western Region [90 degrees East]
later today. It is likely to continue its westward movement over the next few
days while maintaining its intensity.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm AWST (1:30 pm CCT).

[weeniepatrol]

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN HAS EXCEEDED ALL EXPECTATIONS, AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A 130-KNOT MONSTER.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1605401765662310400

[Hurricane2022]

Darian is very close to C5 status now. Likely around 130 - 135 kts

[Subtrop]

TPXS10 PGTW 210257
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (DARIAN)
B. 21/0230Z
C. 13.93S
D. 91.05E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A
DT OF 7.0. MET/PT YIELD 6.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
20/2110Z 14.25S 91.70E SSMS
HARKINS