Texas Winter 2022-2023

[CaptinCrunch]

Plotting temps shows you exactly where the arctic air is, and when you see all of KS already well below freezing and northern OK (Alva) @ 24 degrees and falling you can pretty much get the idea that this will be into NTX much earlier than forecast. NWS FTW has 40 as the high at DFW for Thursday, I'm thinking the high will be around 2am in the mid 30's.

By 7am the DFW area will be below freezing, and by 5pm we'll probably be in the low 20's to upper teens.

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown may get an inch if they are lucky now. At least we will get cold for Christmas.

[Texas Snowman]

So that’s the kind of day it’s going to be, huh?

Lol, someone is going to be getting a few Grade A lumps of coal in a Christmas stocking a few days from now!!!

[texsn95]

When is it scheduled to ram through Houston? Katy Area. I'd like to be out on my run when it hits

[Ntxw]

When is it scheduled to ram through Houston? Katy Area. I'd like to be out on my run when it hits

Anytime between noon and 3pm-ish Thurs it looks on models. Usually expect faster passage with said fronts.

[Ralph's Weather]

NAM still advertising chances for wind whipped flurries north of I-20 tomorrow. The air looks like it will be saturated below 900mb but bone dry above that.

[wxman57]

I'm only seeing about a 10-15 deg drop behind the front currently. However, it's already quite cold in the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. It's definitely going to be windy behind it.

[CaptinCrunch]

With the depth of the arctic air I'm preparing for sub freezing temperatures lasting at least 72 hrs across NTX. I just don't see DFW climbing above the freezing mark Saturday, most likely we peak out in the upper 20's. Christmas Day we may get into the upper 30's close to 40 during the peak of the day.

Alrighty then.....

[Ntxw]

I'm only seeing about a 10-15 deg drop behind the front currently. However, it's already quite cold in the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. It's definitely going to be windy behind it.

Height rises in eastern WY. That's probably the beginnings of the boundary/front. Speed will increase throughout the day.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm only seeing about a 10-15 deg drop behind the front currently. However, it's already quite cold in the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. It's definitely going to be windy behind it.

Height rises in eastern WY. That's probably the beginnings of the boundary/front. Speed will increase throughout the day.

https://i.imgur.com/smbNosK.png

https://i.imgur.com/K8UDSuz.png

Billings MT is curranty -14F -27WC with Snow @ 9am update

[Ntxw]

I'm only seeing about a 10-15 deg drop behind the front currently. However, it's already quite cold in the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. It's definitely going to be windy behind it.

Height rises in eastern WY. That's probably the beginnings of the boundary/front. Speed will increase throughout the day.

https://i.imgur.com/smbNosK.png

https://i.imgur.com/K8UDSuz.png

Billings MT is curranty -14F -27WC with Snow

Douglas WY site KDGW. 34F to 0F.

[CaptinCrunch]

Bottom kinda fell out with that passage

[orangeblood]

I'm only seeing about a 10-15 deg drop behind the front currently. However, it's already quite cold in the Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming. It's definitely going to be windy behind it.

Pay attention to a small town in eastern Colorado called Burlington over the next 24 hrs....forecast High of 50F today, low tonight of -16F !!!!

[Edwards Limestone]

Whatever the case, we should probably enjoy what's about to come through as much as possible. If we get a moderate El Nino next year, probability of a big cold snap like this (and 2021) probably won't happen again for awhile. +ENSO favored (not always but usually) persistent chill but not severe cold with monster HPs.

Tbh, I'll gladly trade these dry cold snaps for a moderate El Nino. I'm not sure the southern plains can survive another brutal La Nina spring/summer or we'll be looking at another 2011 situation down here in south central TX.

[Portastorm]

I haven't given up on 70s and 80s for this weekend. I never predicted that, I only wished it would happen. My wall may yet hold!

Most of us is about to experience one of the greatest cold front passages in modern times and here you are dreaming of 70s and 80s .

https://i.imgur.com/6qzJp0B.gif

Seems overly dramatic. Just a strong Canadian front that we seem to get every 5 years or so (hitting low 20s in Houston and mid-teens in DFW). Check temps in the Northern Plains. Only -15F to -30F. Not particularly cold for winter up there. Not much of a snow pack. This is nowhere close to 2021 (or 1983, 1989). Nowhere close.

The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels believes this is a "once in 10 years" kind of event.

[CaptinCrunch]

Whatever the case, we should probably enjoy what's about to come through as much as possible. If we get a moderate El Nino next year, probability of a big cold snap like this (and 2021) probably won't happen again for awhile. +ENSO favored (not always but usually) persistent chill but not severe cold with monster HPs.

Tbh, I'll gladly trade these dry cold snaps for a moderate El Nino. I'm not sure the southern plains can survive another brutal La Nina spring/summer or we'll be looking at another 2011 situation down here in south central TX.

This La Nina is dying, and CPC gives a 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions by February-March. ENSO Neutral will most likely persist through summer and perhaps transition to El Nino come Fall 23

[Iceresistance]

It currently looks like we (my family) might go to Missouri after all, but the number of days is smaller.

[Iceresistance]

Whatever the case, we should probably enjoy what's about to come through as much as possible. If we get a moderate El Nino next year, probability of a big cold snap like this (and 2021) probably won't happen again for awhile. +ENSO favored (not always but usually) persistent chill but not severe cold with monster HPs.

Tbh, I'll gladly trade these dry cold snaps for a moderate El Nino. I'm not sure the southern plains can survive another brutal La Nina spring/summer or we'll be looking at another 2011 situation down here in south central TX.

This La Nina is dying, and CPC gives a 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions by February-March. ENSO Neutral will most likely persist through summer and perhaps transition to El Nino come Fall 23

I don't think it's dying right now, the Daily SOI is above +30 right now.

[Ntxw]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

[Portastorm]

Man Buffalo, NY is having some kind of winter. What's another 3 feet of snow with the Lake enhanced.

Keep funding these heat miser walls when we should build a massive lake along the TX/Oklahoma border.

Ha ha! Great idea.

I grew up with lake effect snow, living along the NE Ohio shoreline. It's remarkable weather especially when the fetch sets up from a certain direction and doesn't change. As long as the lake isn't frozen ... it'll just be like a firehose of snow dumping on areas, especially ones with a slight elevation. And it is intense and also very localized. You can be driving for several miles in a white out and emerge into partly cloudy skies and sunshine. Crazy stuff.