Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2841 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:38 pm

Looks like the Temperature bottomed out at 2.7°F, now it's 6°F
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2842 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:39 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like northern portions of San Antonio and Houston could see low temperatures reach near 15 tomorrow morning. :cold:


That’s honestly insane. In Feb 2021 that was the coldest temps I’ve ever experienced living here in southeast Texas. It got down to 14°F with a wind chill of -2°F here in Wharton and to think just 22 months later I’m about the experience my second coldest event and possibly challenge Feb 2021 is crazy to me!


And with no fresh snow cover on the ground to the North of you...this HP is as strong or stronger than 2021 all things considered

Speaking of that, what was the Highest HP in the CONUS? Or has that yet to be seen?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2843 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:42 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Looks like northern portions of San Antonio and Houston could see low temperatures reach near 15 tomorrow morning. :cold:


That’s honestly insane. In Feb 2021 that was the coldest temps I’ve ever experienced living here in southeast Texas. It got down to 14°F with a wind chill of -2°F here in Wharton and to think just 22 months later I’m about the experience my second coldest event and possibly challenge Feb 2021 is crazy to me!


And with no fresh snow cover on the ground to the North of you...this HP is as strong or stronger than 2021 all things considered


Cyclogenesis really screwed us over in the trough department. -PNA the whole way through until the last minute go figure :roll:. But it was a good learning lesson. To really drive the core of cold as 2011, 2021 proved and 1949 etc you got to have that open trough in the west-central US to allow the cold to really pour. Otherwise TPV that generates over the lakes will suck the cold back north quickly.

We mention sometimes 1985 as the big plunge for the US. The infamous mid-January Reagan inauguration was not that cold in Texas relative to the East, this was TPV dive into the lakes. That was only famous for the SA snow here. The cold we remember in TX was later in February of 1985 when the big western trough happened with the HP. Big misconception there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2844 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:43 pm

Winds starting to pick up in Humble
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2845 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:45 pm

Ntxw wrote:70F in a week :D.


Not gonna lie after today I'm gonna be ready for my 60s :lol:

This is the second time in 2 years I've seen the most extreme Arctic air of my life and I'm good :lol:

It's actually colder here mid afternoon than 2021 ever was :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2846 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:55 pm

Check out this really impressive 3D animation of this cold front…

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1605710166397108224


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2847 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:57 pm

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:70F in a week :D.


Not gonna lie after today I'm gonna be ready for my 60s :lol:

This is the second time in 2 years I've seen the most extreme Arctic air of my life and I'm good :lol:

It's actually colder here mid afternoon than 2021 ever was :spam:


Don't you miss your Alabama days? :lol:. Lots of modified air there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2848 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:58 pm

orangeblood wrote:Check out this really impressive 3D animation of this cold front…

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1605710166397108224




Fixed it for you. ;)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2849 Postby Snowman67 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:58 pm

38.5 and dropping
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2850 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:59 pm

This could be one of the worst forecast busts I have ever seen for Afternoon Temperatures in December!

Expected high: 17°F

Actual High: 6°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2851 Postby orangeblood » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That’s honestly insane. In Feb 2021 that was the coldest temps I’ve ever experienced living here in southeast Texas. It got down to 14°F with a wind chill of -2°F here in Wharton and to think just 22 months later I’m about the experience my second coldest event and possibly challenge Feb 2021 is crazy to me!


And with no fresh snow cover on the ground to the North of you...this HP is as strong or stronger than 2021 all things considered


Cyclogenesis really screwed us over in the trough department. -PNA the whole way through until the last minute go figure :roll:. But it was a good learning lesson. To really drive the core of cold as 2011, 2021 proved and 1949 etc you got to have that open trough in the west-central US to allow the cold to really pour. Otherwise TPV that generates over the lakes will suck the cold back north quickly.

We mention sometimes 1985 as the big plunge for the US. The infamous mid-January Reagan inauguration was not that cold in Texas relative to the East, this was TPV dive into the lakes. That was only famous for the SA snow here. The cold we remember in TX was later in February of 1985 when the big western trough happened with the HP. Big misconception there.


Yep, only way you get staying power with resistance from SE US ridge with an added bonus of battle ground precip area over Southern Plains…unless it’s reload after reload like 1983
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2852 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:08 pm

DFW down to 16F. Low to mid teens for all of the metroplex outside the far southeast.

Last checked the front should be through wxman57's house in Houston. Wonder if he turned off the water?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2853 Postby harp » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:15 pm

Y’all still getting snow over in Texas behind the front?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2854 Postby WinterMax » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:38 pm

Wind shift and drizzle here in Ville Platte Louisiana, in 30 minutes the temp has dropped from 56 to 53, this is wild !
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2855 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:40 pm

If you don't like the cold....

NWS FTW...
Light south winds return Christmas
Day/Sunday and with sunny skies, a more dramatic warm-up into the
40s will occur.

Increasingly zonal upper level flow will result in strong
subsidence warming aloft to our west and by Monday an airmass
change will be ongoing with much warmer temperatures and highs and
lows already back to near seasonal normals. Moderating temps will
continue into midweek, and the southerly winds will begin to tap
into Gulf moisture. We`ll be contending with low clouds, perhaps
some advection fog, and low temps only in the 50s by Wednesday
night. Moisture should become sufficient for showers, especially
over the eastern zones by Thursday, and high temps by this time
will be pushing 70 degrees.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2856 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:51 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:If you don't like the cold....

NWS FTW...
Light south winds return Christmas
Day/Sunday and with sunny skies, a more dramatic warm-up into the
40s will occur.

Increasingly zonal upper level flow will result in strong
subsidence warming aloft to our west and by Monday an airmass
change will be ongoing with much warmer temperatures and highs and
lows already back to near seasonal normals. Moderating temps will
continue into midweek, and the southerly winds will begin to tap
into Gulf moisture. We`ll be contending with low clouds, perhaps
some advection fog, and low temps only in the 50s by Wednesday
night. Moisture should become sufficient for showers, especially
over the eastern zones by Thursday, and high temps by this time
will be pushing 70 degrees.


I thought Wxman57 worked in Houston for private companies. Does he moonlight on then side with NWS FWD?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2857 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 22, 2022 4:54 pm

harp wrote:Y’all still getting snow over in Texas behind the front?

Snowing still in East Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2858 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:02 pm

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Hc_HE1XQmgs[/youtube]
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2859 Postby Quixotic » Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That’s honestly insane. In Feb 2021 that was the coldest temps I’ve ever experienced living here in southeast Texas. It got down to 14°F with a wind chill of -2°F here in Wharton and to think just 22 months later I’m about the experience my second coldest event and possibly challenge Feb 2021 is crazy to me!


And with no fresh snow cover on the ground to the North of you...this HP is as strong or stronger than 2021 all things considered


Cyclogenesis really screwed us over in the trough department. -PNA the whole way through until the last minute go figure :roll:. But it was a good learning lesson. To really drive the core of cold as 2011, 2021 proved and 1949 etc you got to have that open trough in the west-central US to allow the cold to really pour. Otherwise TPV that generates over the lakes will suck the cold back north quickly.

We mention sometimes 1985 as the big plunge for the US. The infamous mid-January Reagan inauguration was not that cold in Texas relative to the East, this was TPV dive into the lakes. That was only famous for the SA snow here. The cold we remember in TX was later in February of 1985 when the big western trough happened with the HP. Big misconception there.


Not sure if this is the same event, but I remember a quick hitter like this system in January of 85. It was almost 70 degrees and a front came through. I was walking home later that night and it was 20 but the wind was howling. Got up to throw newspapers the next morning and it was 6 with gusts up to 50 mph. We’d had a warm spell and I remember peoples lawns being long and green and the grass snapped off when I walked through it. Took two trips. It was like 70 again two days later.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#2860 Postby 3090 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:18 pm

WinterMax wrote:Wind shift and drizzle here in Ville Platte Louisiana, in 30 minutes the temp has dropped from 56 to 53, this is wild !
Not all that drastic. If you said 56-33, that would be vastly different, over a 30 minute period.
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