2023 WPAC Season

[Hayabusa]

At this time last year I expected 2022 to be a more active season than the last two seasons but instead it's less active than 2021 and it also broke the 3-year streak of 165+ knot typhoons. Now forecasts say an Nino is looming for 2023 but there were also talk of an Nino last year/earlier this year too, I don't know what to believe now. An El Nino may produce lots of strong typhoons, but in recent records the strongest ones (Meranti, Goni, Surigae) formed in a La Nina, except Haiyan formed in a neutral ENSO. Maybe 2023 would be back for another extremely intense typhoon formation.

[Category5Kaiju]

It would be very interesting to see how this season behaves assuming we enter warm neutral, for example (a possibility that I have personally not counted out yet). Does anybody know how neutral years have treated WPAC activity?

[doomhaMwx]

JMA has just designated a "minor" tropical depression very close to the equator, east of Singapore.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 02N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY

[HurricaneEnzo]

Almost exactly where Vamei formed in 2001. I am very interested in these extreme low latitude storms. Will be watching to see if that can get stronger.

JMA has just designated a "minor" tropical depression very close to the equator, east of Singapore.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 02N 107E ALMOST STATIONARY

https://i.imgur.com/ybIngtc.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/2EoKUKQ.jpg

[Hayabusa]

Latest ENSO update is out. Will we finally see the first active season in 3 years?

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1636839711053615105

[cycloneye]

ECMWF seasonal outlook:

 https://twitter.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1640653471312498688




 https://twitter.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1640658377347874817

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF seasonal outlook:

https://twitter.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1640653471312498688

https://twitter.com/MrJamesCosgrove/status/1640658377347874817

For a looming El Nino that TC density graphic looks like for La Nina instead

[JetFuel_SE]

https://twitter.com/cyanide_bot/status/1636839711053615105?t=uF9R2izEGZHmBJwFRjkh_A&s=19

8X[BasinLetter] is used for training purposes.

[Hayabusa]

Pretty potent MJO moving over the WPAC, would it spawn a strong typhoon? GFS is showing development but not that strong, while Euro just a low.

[Kingarabian]

Pretty potent MJO moving over the WPAC, would it spawn a strong typhoon? GFS is showing development but not that strong, while Euro just a low.
https://i.imgur.com/ph06wD9.png
https://i.imgur.com/DtWYrx0.png

Yeah very odd that there's no hint of a STY on the models. But it's probably due to the models keeping the MJO stronger over 120E and weaker over 140-150E.

We should (eventually?) be seeing some strong model canes in the WPAC though.

[Yellow Evan]

Look towards Australia if you want something strong from the looming WWB
.

[cycloneye]

Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1649714615603822593




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1649719335760412673




 https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1649815176881774595

[doomhaMwx]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1649714615603822593

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1649719335760412673

https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1649815176881774595

On the contrary...
 https://twitter.com/jejudohallabong/status/1616312858937282561

[dexterlabio]

For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.

[Hayabusa]

For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.

Yeah I expected too much this was like the strongest MJO passage in this basin in 2 years and we only got a TD and a measly TS.

[dexterlabio]

For a pre-El Nino period I must say that I'm expecting a lot more from WPAC, especially with the recent MJO passage. Although it's quite too early to speculate about anything IMO.

Yeah I expected too much this was like the strongest MJO passage in this basin in 2 years and we only got a TD and a measly TS.

I think it's a case of "stolen" potential. The MJO favored the TC from the SHem instead.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely should've seen at least a STY considering the Nino that's brewing. We'll see what May brings.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Definitely should've seen at least a STY considering the Nino that's brewing. We'll see what May brings.

We gradually seem to be getting that atmospheric Niño coupling so even though the MJO won't be in an optimal phase for the WPAC for now it shouldn't take too long to circle back and thus produce something (especially if another WWB gets going in the process.

[cycloneye]

Activity may pick up soon.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1650982124344979456