Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3001 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:23 pm

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3002 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:38 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3003 Postby harp » Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:40 pm

Twitter is a sewer. That’s why I’ll have no part of it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3004 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 26, 2022 3:58 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Happy Holidays….how about a Wave-1, 6 sigma Strat Warm event to start off the New Year! :double:

This last cold snap maybe just the appetizer!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk241nmWYAA4jpX?format=jpg&name=900x900


Bottom up then top down. We'll already be within -AO territory when it happens before it tanks. It's a milder pattern right now but it's a mild pattern because of wave-1 Aleutian low attack. Seeding the fruits of labor. Models are already hinting at EPO relaxation in the long range.

Ntxw, I think you meant epo coming back instead of relaxation but I could be incorrect. 8-)


I meant EPO relaxation from the positive levels we're in for short term. -EPO not yet will take some time down the road, you won't get one until the Aleutian low pattern retracts closer to Sea of Okhotsk.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3005 Postby dpep4 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 4:06 pm

harp wrote:Twitter is a sewer. That’s why I’ll have no part of it.


It's getting a lot better now.

Note that the Joe B hate mostly has nothing to do with his weather forecasts.

Anyway, nice to get past the super cold for now here. This week looks fantastic for DFW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3006 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 4:07 pm

harp wrote:Twitter is a sewer. That’s why I’ll have no part of it.


I only have Twitter to get weather and sports info. And I barely signed up for it a couple weeks ago. I’ll never post anything on there though. Just seemed like so many people were posting stuff from Twitter on here so I just decided to make an account so I could browse through it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3007 Postby dpep4 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 4:54 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3008 Postby Quixotic » Mon Dec 26, 2022 5:37 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3009 Postby rwfromkansas » Mon Dec 26, 2022 5:42 pm

I hope you all had a merry Christmas!

Hopefully things will cool later in January but with snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3010 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:03 pm

More ensembles and other guidance show jet retraction. Again you never know if the models are seeing changes too quickly but the signs continue to increase. Raised heights over the Arctic region and possible jet cut underneath. Long range CFS is another continental cold plunge type pattern into the latter half of January. Big -EPO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3011 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:18 pm



He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3012 Postby hriverajr » Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
The amount of derogative comments this guy gets on Twitter is crazy!


He’s earned it.


He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.


Nothing to do with his weather forecasting skills (still inciteful), which are now roughly 30 percent of his twitter posts
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3013 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 7:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:More ensembles and other guidance show jet retraction. Again you never know if the models are seeing changes too quickly but the signs continue to increase. Raised heights over the Arctic region and possible jet cut underneath. Long range CFS is another continental cold plunge type pattern into the latter half of January. Big -EPO.


Just looked at the 12z GEFS and 12z EPS and that Aleutian trough looks really stubborn. Doesn’t hardly budge on the ensembles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3014 Postby WeatherNewbie » Mon Dec 26, 2022 7:47 pm

dpep4 wrote:
harp wrote:Twitter is a sewer. That’s why I’ll have no part of it.


It's getting a lot better now.

Note that the Joe B hate mostly has nothing to do with his weather forecasts.

Anyway, nice to get past the super cold for now here. This week looks fantastic for DFW.


:lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3015 Postby Quixotic » Mon Dec 26, 2022 7:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
The amount of derogative comments this guy gets on Twitter is crazy!


He’s earned it.


He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.


He was a good forecaster. Might still be. He rants about unrelated issues so I doubt him.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3016 Postby txtwister78 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Quixotic wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
He’s earned it.


He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.


He was a good forecaster. Might still be. He rants about unrelated issues so I doubt him.


Speaking for myself of course but some may have noticed that offering "opinions" seems to be a thing now on social media these days for everybody (weather personalities included) as it relates to all sorts of topics :wink: . In other words, nothing new from where I sit at least.

I think as it relates to his field of expertise, he still provides a service for those who enjoy weather. That's how I look at it. Free to follow or not.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas and looking forward to a healthy, prosperous and snow filled New Year!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3017 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:56 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Happy Holidays….how about a Wave-1, 6 sigma Strat Warm event to start off the New Year! :double:

This last cold snap maybe just the appetizer!!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fk241nmWYAA4jpX?format=jpg&name=900x900

Holy moly, that would be a Massive SSW if it verified, was there a massive SSW in January 2021 before it's effects came here in February 2021? I would like to know how strong it was.


Yes there was. Around the same period as well late December to early January. Aleutian low wave 1 pattern kicked off the SSW. This is not a pseudo Aleutian low pattern, it is one. The recovery of the stratPV now just sets it up to be a major one if it occurs.

https://i.imgur.com/yRhLRFs.png

Um, I don't want to ask this, but, is this Winter 2020-2021 all over again in terms of this setup?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3018 Postby Gotwood » Mon Dec 26, 2022 9:09 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Holy moly, that would be a Massive SSW if it verified, was there a massive SSW in January 2021 before it's effects came here in February 2021? I would like to know how strong it was.


Yes there was. Around the same period as well late December to early January. Aleutian low wave 1 pattern kicked off the SSW. This is not a pseudo Aleutian low pattern, it is one. The recovery of the stratPV now just sets it up to be a major one if it occurs.

https://i.imgur.com/yRhLRFs.png

Um, I don't want to ask this, but, is this Winter 2020-2021 all over again in terms of this setup?

Since 1983 was brought up so much during the Feb 21 event I decided to google winter of 1985 and the first headline was a winter storm of the century lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3019 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Dec 26, 2022 9:09 pm

Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Yes there was. Around the same period as well late December to early January. Aleutian low wave 1 pattern kicked off the SSW. This is not a pseudo Aleutian low pattern, it is one. The recovery of the stratPV now just sets it up to be a major one if it occurs.

https://i.imgur.com/yRhLRFs.png

Um, I don't want to ask this, but, is this Winter 2020-2021 all over again in terms of this setup?

Since 1983 was brought up so much during the Feb 21 event I decided to google winter of 1985 and the first headline was a winter storm of the century lol.


Winter of 1985 featured this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3020 Postby Gotwood » Mon Dec 26, 2022 9:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Um, I don't want to ask this, but, is this Winter 2020-2021 all over again in terms of this setup?

Since 1983 was brought up so much during the Feb 21 event I decided to google winter of 1985 and the first headline was a winter storm of the century lol.


Winter of 1985 featured this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_North_American_cold_wave

History repeats its self. No offense south Texas but I hope that snow storm gets sent to north Texas instead lol.
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