Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

Man the 80’s must have been legendary. Seems like it started in the late 70’s.

[Brent]

Man the 80’s must have been legendary. Seems like it started in the late 70’s.

That's why last week didn't set any records here... Everything was from 1983 and 1989! I mean just imagine

[Quixotic]

70s were better. 76-79 were some of the more epic winters.

[Quixotic]

83 was insanely cold that made Feb 21 look like nothing. If 83 happened today, we could be talking absolute catastrophe.

[Cpv17]

70s were better. 76-79 were some of the more epic winters.

Well before my time. Might not ever get to experience that in my lifetime in Texas anyway.

[Brent]

83 was insanely cold that made Feb 21 look like nothing. If 83 happened today, we could be talking absolute catastrophe.

You're not kidding... December 1983 is almost FIVE degrees colder than February 2021 here and 2021 had a mean of -1 one day... Like I can't even imagine. I had enough Arctic cold with the other day

[Iceresistance]

We could have severe storms starting December 29th just east of most of Y'all, but early January may have to be watched towards here because there is a SE Ridge that is going to develop combined with troughs from the west. It all depends on the moisture return.

[Ntxw]

Mild warming trend has begun. Surface pressure anomalies across North America are low so no real cold air around. With the high SOI spike of late probably some underachieving with any qpf forecasts as well.

While all this is going on the next phase for cold is occurring with warming of the stratosphere. These bonafide Aleutian low configurations typically do produce an event, especially if it is long lasting. They attack the strat PV and build cold over Siberia. We'll have to wait and see what kind of response the EPO has down the road but that is far off.

Lucky strat forecasts in model world is not a tough one to make since it is not as complex.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove says mid to late January will return to Cold.

[Cpv17]

Larry Cosgrove says mid to late January will return to Cold.

There’s usually a pretty big lag after an SSW occurs. I’m thinking the last third of January it might turn colder. Sometime after the 20th but we’ll see.

[Edwards Limestone]

With SOI being so high, are we heading for a 4th year La Nina?

[rwfromkansas]

The amount of derogative comments this guy gets on Twitter is crazy!

He’s earned it.

He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.

He gets political and Twitter leans the other way so he gets hate for daring to not conform.

[rwfromkansas]

He’s that bad? I mean he still has clients though, doesn’t he? I feel like he got this cold snap right though.

He was a good forecaster. Might still be. He rants about unrelated issues so I doubt him.

Speaking for myself of course but some may have noticed that offering "opinions" seems to be a thing now on social media these days for everybody (weather personalities included) as it relates to all sorts of topics . In other words, nothing new from where I sit at least.

I think as it relates to his field of expertise, he still provides a service for those who enjoy weather. That's how I look at it. Free to follow or not.

Hope everyone had a great Christmas and looking forward to a healthy, prosperous and snow filled New Year!

I had to unlike IWeathernet on Facebook since he has gone crazy with unrelated posts, attacks, weird posts etc. He used to be one of the best in DFW.

[gpsnowman]

Larry Cosgrove says mid to late January will return to Cold.

There’s usually a pretty big lag after an SSW occurs. I’m thinking the last third of January it might turn colder. Sometime after the 20th but we’ll see.

That's the problem with La Ninas. Too much time in between systems/arctic intrusions. But when they come they mean business. In a good El Nino year we can get a cool shot with a system every few days or so.

[Cpv17]

Larry Cosgrove says mid to late January will return to Cold.

There’s usually a pretty big lag after an SSW occurs. I’m thinking the last third of January it might turn colder. Sometime after the 20th but we’ll see.

That's the problem with La Ninas. Too much time in between systems/arctic intrusions. But when they come they mean business. In a good El Nino year we can get a cool shot with a system every few days or so.

Yeah they’re very prone to extremes in either direction it seems.

[CaptinCrunch]

With SOI being so high, are we heading for a 4th year La Nina?

Still the same Advisory, January-March = chance of La Nina/ENSO Neutral conditions, and a 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions February-April

All Nina regions are -0.08 or higher (means moving towards ENSO Neutral)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Triple Dip La Nina's of the last 73 years..
1973-1976
1998-2001
2020-2023

[Edwards Limestone]

With SOI being so high, are we heading for a 4th year La Nina?

Still the same Advisory, January-March = chance of La Nina/ENSO Neutral conditions, and a 71% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions February-April

All Nina regions are -0.08 or higher (means moving towards ENSO Neutral)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[wxman57]

Man the 80’s must have been legendary. Seems like it started in the late 70’s.

That's why last week didn't set any records here... Everything was from 1983 and 1989! I mean just imagine

I was working the night shift in '83 when it hit single digits. Flew to New Orleans around Christmas Day. The marshes were all frozen, and there was no heat in the airport. We were below freezing for 5 full days here in Houston. On one day, the high only hit 20. Water mains broke everywhere. People came home from visiting family at Christmas to find water flowing down their driveways from burst pipes in the attic. Similar in 1989. Yeah, those were the days...

Meanwhile, these upcoming days look much better:

[Edwards Limestone]

Can happily say the new house indoor/outdoor plumbing made it through the 2022 "Siberian punch" swimmingly. No precip (and dripping hot/cold sides of faucets) certainly helped!

Good practice for the next event? I guess we will see

[rwfromkansas]

A friend had a pipe burst in Arkansas. Flooded a room pretty good. We were away but dripped faucets and all is good after driving back today. Hope most fared okay; the grid holding helped.