Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Brent wrote:One thing I noticed about today... We were 1 degree off the record high from 1984... Well January 1985 would follow
I don’t remember January being cold at all in recent years but I think someone said we had a sleet storm down here in Jan of 2018 but I don’t remember it so I might not have gotten anything at my location from that event. But usually it seems like January lately is above average.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
He’s banking on the strat warming, along with ridging showing up in western Canada and into Alaska and for the first time the 6z GEFS finally shows this but it’s quite a ways out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
12z models are pulling the svr wx threat back westward into DFW for Monday, and this is also increasing the rainfall totals for NTX.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
Not really seeing anything to support the return of big cold, but there should be a return to normals for Texas with increased chances of rainfall. Probably have to start looking towards late January or early February for any big cold.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:12z models are pulling the svr wx threat back westward into DFW for Monday, and this is also increasing the rainfall totals for NTX.
SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Arkansas for 1/2.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
We are in a very Ninoesque flow but I'm not sure I buy the qpf. I'll bet on the under given the extreme stubborn +SOI.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:We are in a very Ninoesque flow but I'm not sure I buy the qpf. I'll bet on the under given the extreme stubborn +SOI.
Whoever said that the La Niña is dying is eating their own words.
We’re only a couple of days to have the La Niña to be in it’s 4th year.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
nathanc1969 wrote:harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
Me personally, I feel like the cold will come during the last third or last quarter of January vs the middle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
Me personally, I feel like the cold will come during the last third or last quarter of January vs the middle.
I think so too, might even wait until opening days of February given how long SSWs typically take. Though I do think the pattern overall cools in mid January. Ensembles mostly agree the Aleutian low retracts sometime mid month and Pacific height pattern changes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The CFS model is starting to hint at a more active Late January into February, it may not be good with storm systems and cold shot placement, but it's really good with general patterns.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
If true, by mid month the mjo will get into phases 8-2 and perhaps three. Which typically are the colder stormier phases but that's speculation on if the mjo actually does that
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:harp wrote:Larry Cosgrove continues to say the cold returns mid month.
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
Larry lives in Hockley, Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Sambucol wrote:Ntxw wrote:nathanc1969 wrote:
And what Larry predicts, usually comes true.
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
Larry lives in Hockley, Texas.
Interesting! Awhile back I thought he said in a post he was in Vermont or something. Stand corrected.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Sambucol wrote:Ntxw wrote:
He's always been a good forecaster and usually stick to his ideas. The only thing that has changed over the years is he is now in the northeast and a lot of his predictions can weigh more that direction.
Larry lives in Hockley, Texas.
Interesting! Awhile back I thought he said in a post he was in Vermont or something. Stand corrected.
Yep, Hockley, Texas. Near me!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Yea, he lives in Hockley. I communicate with him on LinkedIn. Always takes time to answer questions.
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
6z GFS is quite the sight to see on a extremely powerful SSW over Russia in Mid January. In the long range though.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
How about a 78 New Years Day? Vomit. At least we get back down to normal in a few days.
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