2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Why not begin this thread a little teeny bit early? Alright, let's see what we think 2023 is gonna have in store for us!

Relevant links:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_gmx_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_car_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ts_al_tat_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/ep_rCUMP_048.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/natlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/mdrglob.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/carssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/gomssta.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/GEOCOLOR/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/taw/13/1800x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/GEOCOLOR/1200x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/02/1200x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/pr/13/600x600.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/02/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/02/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/13/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/GEOCOLOR/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/1000x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/13/1000x1000.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

[Hurricane2022]

Oh god, another year has gone by so fast. In just a few months, the historic 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be 6 years since it occurred... Unbelievable!

[Teban54]

Oh god, another year has gone by so fast. In just a few months, the historic 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be 6 years since it occurred... Unbelievable!

And to think the upcoming season uses the same naming list as the 2017 and 2005 seasons...

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh god, another year has gone by so fast. In just a few months, the historic 2017 Atlantic hurricane season will be 6 years since it occurred... Unbelievable!

And to think the upcoming season uses the same naming list as the 2017 and 2005 seasons...

According to wikipedia, "The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2023. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2029 season. This is the same list used in the 2017 season, with the exceptions of Harold, Idalia, Margot, and Nigel, which replaced Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate, respectively."

You know the previous season to use a given naming list was pretttty darn bad if there are 4 new names on that list. Also yeah it's honestly kind of hard to believe that we're coming up on 6 years since that dreadful season. Really hoping 2023 won't ever use its List 3 curse to do some bad stuff

[IcyTundra]

Quadruple la nina seems unlikely has there even been a quadruple la nina in the past? If I had to guess we will be in an either warm neutral or el nino this year so hoping for a less active season.

[CyclonicFury]

It's going to be interesting to see how indicators evolve over the coming months. Right now, I'm not expecting a super active season but a lot can change. El Niño development is a possibility but far from a guarantee at this point. Historically, the most active seasons in the Atlantic basin are the 1-2 years after El Niño, and we haven't had an El Niño in several years.

Happy New Year. Still 5 months to go before the official start...

[zzzh]

Current SSTA map. -ENSO, -PDO, -PMM, +AMO, ~+IOD, ~average MDR. We will see how they evolve in the coming months.

[Category5Kaiju]

Quite interesting to see the latest CFV2 sst output for Nino 3,4, which puts us at a warm or cool neutral by JAS with no Nino or Nina in sight.

Also, especially after what happened last year, I absolutely wouldn't be surprised if this year somehow turns out more active than 2022 despite being in a non-La Nina phase ?

So many things went wrong last year that made it underperform, I can't say that I'm confident that 2023 will bust AS badly haha

[ElectricStorm]

I feel like we could see similar numbers to the 2022 season, but of course things can change. Obviously only one or two storms can make a season memorable and 2022 was a prime example of that.

[mixedDanilo.E]

One thing i'm wondering for sure about this season is how quickly La Niña exits. Affects how long the season is neutral and when and if El Niño comes.

[Iceresistance]

Joe Bastardi has El Nino in July

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611194581999050755




(NOTE: Take all forecasts for Hurricane Season with a grain of salt right now!)

[Category5Kaiju]

Joe Bastardi has El Nino in July

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611194581999050755?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

(NOTE: Take all forecasts for Hurricane Season with a grain of salt right now!)

I'm gonna have to be honest here, I think that conclusion is a bit rash.

Yes, while it would be generally expected that we are gonna have an El Nino because it has not happened in 4 years, you also have to keep in mind that the atmosphere does whatever it wants, and it doesn't have a "memory" sort to say. It's also been talked a bit about in the ENSO state thread, and hurricanetrack Mark has mentioned it in his videos too, but the SOI seems to be stubbornly positive, and it's looking ever so more likely that we may simply end up with a neutral ENSO this upcoming season.

Also keep in mind that that is just one model run, and if I remember correctly, there was also that kind of warm bias around the same time last year, and we all know how that ended up.

[tolakram]

Joe Bastardi, rash?

[weeniepatrol]

Joe Bastardi has El Nino in July

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1611194581999050755?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

(NOTE: Take all forecasts for Hurricane Season with a grain of salt right now!)

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we're starting off 2023 with a pretty warm E. Atlantic, Atlantic Nino region, subtropics (including the N.E. Atlantic near the Canary Islands), and Gulf of Mexico. The MDR is near average, and the Caribbean is mildly but strikingly above average.

[zzzh]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1615049324282667008



ECMWF forecast a strong ASW in early summer. Quite interesting that the ASW is stronger than the standing wave in the Pacific. Weak Nino?

[wxman57]

Looking like an El Nino is coming for summer/fall. Numbers could be similar to last year, meaning below the 30-yr average. Fine with me. A season like 1914 would be great. I'd say 1983, but Houston/Galveston was hit by the only major hurricane that year. When you take a look back, many major impacts have occurred during El Nino seasons.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looking like an El Nino is coming for summer/fall. Numbers could be similar to last year, meaning below the 30-yr average. Fine with me. A season like 1914 would be great. I'd say 1983, but Houston/Galveston was hit by the only major hurricane that year. When you take a look back, many major impacts have occurred during El Nino seasons.

I very much appreciate your insight into this wxman57! However, I was under the impression that ENSO state, especially this far out in advance and before the Spring Predictability Barrier, still has great uncertainties, right? Like how are we sure at this point in time that the expected warmup will indeed cross the +0.5 C trimonthly for Nino 3,4 rather than warming up to, say, something like +0.3 C and falling shy of Nino thresholds (as a warm neutral state instead)?

[zzzh]

Despite showing a full blown Nino, the CFS forecast La Nina upper air pattern over the Atlantic in ASO.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/Aa4vFxX.png
https://i.imgur.com/W4XNdyY.png
https://i.imgur.com/70m5sdk.png
Despite showing a full blown Nino, the CFS forecast La Nina upper air pattern over the Atlantic in ASO.

Modoki El Nino?