Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3141 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 01, 2023 5:43 pm

Jan 20th to Feb 20th should be primetime for winter down here!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3142 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:14 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.


So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3143 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:19 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.


So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.


I think you are correct. The guy is smart but he isn't perfect and i hope February is colder than what people think :grrr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3144 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 01, 2023 6:39 pm

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3145 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 01, 2023 8:09 pm

The AO is your long-term indicator for Nina Feb torches (really Ninas as a whole). Early in winter I made a post about what separates a blowtorch Nina-Climo winter and those are encompassed by ++AO. Having the big -AO in December really helped out.

Even this warm pattern now isn't run by the +AO. If it was the case winter would be over.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3146 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:00 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.


So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.


I mean we've had two Februaries in a row with the peak of winter in La Nina... I'm not sure I'm following why this year would be different. It's the same La Nina

Yeah in the southeast sure but not here

I'm not worried about it... Anyone who thinks winter is over on January 1st like come on
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3147 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:07 pm

Brent wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:Not sure if you have heard of eric webb. He posts alot on twitter. He said mid to end January is our only opportunity at winter weather because he thinks feb is a blowtorch for us because of niña climatology. I would like to get one more shot at winter weather with a -epo, especially if mjo gets in colder phases like forecast.


So he’s taking a textbook Nina climo map and saying that to followers?

Lazy. February, regardless of Nina or Nino, is typically a great month for us. It can be chaotic in Nina’s with wild swings, but it’s never boring.


I mean we've had two Februaries in a row with the peak of winter in La Nina... I'm not sure I'm following why this year would be different. It's the same La Nina

Yeah in the southeast sure but not here

I'm not worried about it... Anyone who thinks winter is over on January 1st like come on

If the AO becomes more positive like Ntxw mentioned, then Winter is indeed over for our area, but this winter is -AO dominant.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3148 Postby harp » Sun Jan 01, 2023 9:31 pm

Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3149 Postby Itryatgolf » Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:59 pm

harp wrote:Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”


Not sure i agree with Mr. Cosgrove. A stretching event to keep the pv from getting fully intact I agree with more than a SSW but imo
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3150 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:04 pm

Itryatgolf wrote:
harp wrote:Just now from Larry Cosgrove: “Massive SSW occurring will likely culminate with widespread Arctic intrusion and major storm along the Gulf and East Coasts mid-January.”


Not sure i agree with Mr. Cosgrove. A stretching event to keep the pv from getting fully intact I agree with more than a SSW but imo

A stretching event can do the same general outcome with an extremely unstable PV.

Even though it appears that the stretching is less common than the splitting events.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3151 Postby dpep4 » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:42 pm

Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3152 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:46 pm

dpep4 wrote:Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.

It's winter! Of course we're watching the cold more!

This needs to be watched, the mesoscale models are trending the severe weather potential further west, towards me!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3153 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 01, 2023 11:55 pm

dpep4 wrote:Man, we've got an Enhanced Risk in northeast Texas tomorrow but the winter nerds are OCDing over Feb cold.


That’s just how most of us on here are. Severe storms are far more common down here than really cold weather with potential wintry weather. It’s much more exciting for us to talk about since it rarely happens. Severe weather happens several times a year in Texas. Plus there’s not a lot of people from northeast Texas on here. It’s mostly DFW driven.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3154 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 8:00 am

Well the ensembles were starting to look better but the past few runs have went back to +EPO it seems.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3155 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:05 am

Today could get nasty, the dew point is 60°F.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3156 Postby Tammie » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:35 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3157 Postby cstrunk » Mon Jan 02, 2023 10:38 am

I'm watching the severe threat closely today from Longview.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3158 Postby Itryatgolf » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:01 am

I know it's only Jan 2nd, but I believe winter is over other than a few quick cool shots. We can look back at this post if I'm wrong but it really seems that way. Too much consensus for that outcome. The hypeist will hype, but I will remain optimistic because it's still winter and winter just started :grr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3159 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:02 am

Yeah northeast TX is gonna get hammered today. Lots of chasers setting up over there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3160 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 02, 2023 11:04 am

Iceresistance wrote:Today could get nasty, the dew point is 60°F.


69 here but I’m too far south for anything.
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