Texas Winter 2022-2023

[South Texas Storms]

Things are getting a little spicy down in NW Houston

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl696koaYAA0dzD?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah too close for comfort, especially on a January night.

[Brent]

Things are getting a little spicy down in NW Houston

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fl696koaYAA0dzD?format=jpg&name=small

Yeah too close for comfort, especially on a January night.

We apparently had a record number of tornadoes for January on Monday. Kind of makes you wonder...

[Cpv17]

18z GEFS was by far the most encouraging run in a while. The GEFS is trending towards relaxing the Pacific jet and shifting equatorward. That allows for wave breaking across the NPAC and ridging into WCAN with some cold in place. The EPS is still a bit more aggressive with the Pacific jet, which results in a pattern that doesn't really build any cold anomalies (the air is still cold) so there is no big reservoir for the EPO to push down. It looks more seasonal to slightly below normal.

0z GEFS looks better.

[gto67]

Thanks for the information on the SSW.

[Cpv17]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1611937729411158017

[Ntxw]

Added tags. You're set now.

[Cpv17]

Added tags. You're set now.

Thanks.

[harp]

Fwiw, end of GFS run shows cold air coming down…I realize that’s La La Land.

[Ntxw]

Fwiw, end of GFS run shows cold air coming down…I realize that’s La La Land.

I would say target date is after the 20th and near the ~25th for more models to latch on for step down. If it does dump cold it will likely take longer though maybe early February once the TPV matures.

20th-25th the ensembles flip the Pacific so hopefully OPs will go that way.

[Ntxw]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

[Cpv17]

For my sake, my original target date of the 20th doesn’t sound completely horrible anymore lol

[Ntxw]

For my sake, my original target date of the 20th doesn’t sound completely horrible anymore lol

You made a good call, persistence. October, November, December all did the same. Took till ~20th of those months before things happened. TPV will be better than in December given climo and wavelengths so hopefully we can stretch it out through Feb.

[Ntxw]

Also the latest CFSv2 runs the Pacific ridge takes more of a poleward trip in early Feb. With a longwave trough over the C-E US. Has great potential pattern that's lasting, late Jan being only the appetizer. Interested to see if the euro weeklies follows this week.

[WinterMax]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

https://i.imgur.com/vwMk74S.png

That’s some big time pooling, and very cold arctic air. I’m learning from people like you that, the models seem to experiment with likely scenarios until they get much closer to an event, so this could disappear and return several times on the operationals. Would that be fair to say?

[WinterMax]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

https://i.imgur.com/vwMk74S.png

By the way is that a paid version of tropical tidbits? I can only see the US map on the free version, unless I am missing some navigation feature on the the free version.

[Iceresistance]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

https://i.imgur.com/vwMk74S.png

By the way is that a paid version of tropical tidbits? I can only see the US map on the free version, unless I am missing some navigation feature on the free version.

There is no paid version of TT, all of the stuff there is free. It's on a different map that you can check by clicking/tapping "Regions".

[WinterMax]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

https://i.imgur.com/vwMk74S.png

By the way is that a paid version of tropical tidbits? I can only see the US map on the free version, unless I am missing some navigation feature on the free version.

There is no paid version of TT, all of the stuff there is free. It's on a different map that you can check by clicking/tapping "Regions".

Thank you !

[Ntxw]

In about a week/week and half's time we should see cold pooling back into the continent (Northern Canada) and build up that source region. Then we have to wait and see what kind of delivery pattern we get.

https://i.imgur.com/vwMk74S.png

That’s some big time pooling, and very cold arctic air. I’m learning from people like you that, the models seem to experiment with likely scenarios until they get much closer to an event, so this could disappear and return several times on the operationals. Would that be fair to say?

Pretty much! It's all about probabilities looking long term. Ensembles at that range does much of the work and they've become pretty good at pattern depiction.

[bubba hotep]

If WCAN gets cold, then this could be another run at single digits. However, this run of the EPS doesn't do that with temps but the H5 pattern is there.

[Itryatgolf]

If WCAN gets cold, then this could be another run at single digits. However, this run of the EPS doesn't do that with temps but the H5 pattern is there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2023010812/eps_z500aNorm_namer_61.png

I think that the only way we get cold with the setup depicted is if we get a -epo but if not, we won't imo