Texas Winter 2022-2023

[harp]

Once again, the GFS shows the frigid air coming south at the end of the run. January 24th timeframe.

[Itryatgolf]

Once again, the GFS shows the frigid air coming south at the end of the run. January 24th timeframe.

It looks good but we want to see the epo/wpo turn negative before it's more believable imo. Those are the king of cold imo. Also, this may be a byproduct of mjo in phases 1 and 2 if it ultimately does get cold. We shall see

[bubba hotep]

Once again, the GFS shows the frigid air coming south at the end of the run. January 24th timeframe.

This is dangerously close to being the mother of all winter storms for Texas! Too bad it's the end of the Happy Hour run and not 168hrs out lol

[gpsnowman]

Once again, the GFS shows the frigid air coming south at the end of the run. January 24th timeframe.

This is dangerously close to being the mother of all winter storms for Texas! Too bad it's the end of the Happy Hour run and not 168hrs out lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023010818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

168 isn't very far. I'm just damn desperate for some cold much less snow at this point.

[Cpv17]

The GEFS has taken a step backwards today imo. EPS looks better than the GEFS.

[Iceresistance]

Once again, the GFS shows the frigid air coming south at the end of the run. January 24th timeframe.

This is dangerously close to being the mother of all winter storms for Texas! Too bad it's the end of the Happy Hour run and not 168hrs out lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023010818/gfs_z500_vort_namer_65.png

It's either trying way too hard, or it's picking up on something.

[gpsnowman]

I see some more 70s and even upper 70s in the future. Wake me when this ends. I haven't smoked a cig in a week (trying to quit) and everything irritates me now. I need cold or a smoke or I might have a total freak-out.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS tried way too hard, 0z and 6z dropped it

[Ntxw]

I see some more 70s and even upper 70s in the future. Wake me when this ends. I haven't smoked a cig in a week (trying to quit) and everything irritates me now. I need cold or a smoke or I might have a total freak-out.

Feel ya! Unfortunately not much will happen until after the 20th. Just potentially a couple of seasonal fronts for our region.

[Ntxw]

FYI the next few days is +20F to +30F above normal. In reverse that is an arctic outbreak so I guess we call it a heatwave? Near record highs for some.

[Iceresistance]

FYI the next few days is +20F to +30F above normal. In reverse that is an arctic outbreak so I guess we call it a heatwave? Near record highs for some.

I remembered that January 2021 also featured highs in the 70s, then February 2021 made an exceptionally brutal counter with the extreme cold.


I still don't believe that this coming February is going to be a repeat of February 2021, but anything is still possible now.

[rwfromkansas]

I don't recall the term "atmospheric river" used for storms until recently. Am I wrong? It's weird how some hip term somehow becomes the thing in the media to describe a storm. Every cold snap is now the Polar Vortex.

[rwfromkansas]

I see some more 70s and even upper 70s in the future. Wake me when this ends. I haven't smoked a cig in a week (trying to quit) and everything irritates me now. I need cold or a smoke or I might have a total freak-out.

Feel ya! Unfortunately not much will happen until after the 20th. Just potentially a couple of seasonal fronts for our region.

Because we already had cold, I'm patient since it's Texas. But, if the signs aren't there in another week of a real shift at the end of the month into early February, I will be singing a different tune.

[Iceresistance]

I don't recall the term "atmospheric river" used for storms until recently. Am I wrong? It's weird how some hip term somehow becomes the thing in the media to describe a storm. Every cold snap is now the Polar Vortex.

It has been used recently because the Atmospheric River is fueling and funneling the storms to California!

[Portastorm]

I don't recall the term "atmospheric river" used for storms until recently. Am I wrong? It's weird how some hip term somehow becomes the thing in the media to describe a storm. Every cold snap is now the Polar Vortex.

It’s not new but the level to which it is referenced now is off the scale! Just like every deep low pressure system is now called a “bomb cyclone.”

[Ntxw]

I don't recall the term "atmospheric river" used for storms until recently. Am I wrong? It's weird how some hip term somehow becomes the thing in the media to describe a storm. Every cold snap is now the Polar Vortex.

It’s not new but the level to which it is referenced now is off the scale! Just like every deep low pressure system is now called a “bomb cyclone.”

Pacific jet extension or East Asian Jet isn't as cool .

[Iceresistance]

I don't recall the term "atmospheric river" used for storms until recently. Am I wrong? It's weird how some hip term somehow becomes the thing in the media to describe a storm. Every cold snap is now the Polar Vortex.

It’s not new but the level to which it is referenced now is off the scale! Just like every deep low pressure system is now called a “bomb cyclone.”

Pacific jet extension or East Asian Jet isn't as cool .

I've always called it the "Supercharged Pacific Jet", I once thought of it being as "The Supercharged Pacific Firehose Jet"

[Itryatgolf]

Ntxw, are you still thinking end of January before we get any meaningful changes towards cold or more towards beginning of February?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, are you still thinking end of January before we get any meaningful changes towards cold?

Definitely. Euro weeklies are out and just paints similar picture. Trough digs into the west as the Pacific shuts off. Huge western ridge pops and retrogrades into -EPO. After the 25thish is when you get a more classic Nina look with 500mb mean trough that looks like cold dump central US. Forming SE ridge will create the highway for QPF into early February. Think peak of this pattern is Jan 30th - Feb 15th.

Basically complete 180 of the current pattern.

[harp]

Wait, what about all these winter cancel folks? What are we gonna do with them??