WPAC: INVEST 97W

[cycloneye]

97W INVEST 230108 1200 4.3N 131.9E WPAC 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100230Z-100600ZJAN2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED, BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION
LIKE SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A CORE OF WEAK
WINDS. A 100037Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS A BROAD LLC
WITH LINEAR BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
28-29C SST. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A
MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.2N 132.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY
ORGANIZED, BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION LIKE SYSTEM WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS AND
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND A CORE OF WEAK WINDS. A 100037Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
FURTHER DEPICTS A BROAD LLC WITH LINEAR BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM 28-29C SST. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.