Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

Ntxw, are you still thinking end of January before we get any meaningful changes towards cold?

Definitely. Euro weeklies are out and just paints similar picture. Trough digs into the west as the Pacific shuts off. Huge western ridge pops and retrogrades into -EPO. After the 25thish is when you get a more classic Nina look with 500mb mean trough that looks like cold dump central US. Forming SE ridge will create the highway for QPF into early February. Think peak of this pattern is Jan 30th - Feb 15th.

Basically complete 180 of the current pattern.

I hope so because I wasn't hating this pattern at first but yeah now I'm ready for something different. Tired of sunny and not even remotely cold

[gpsnowman]

Wait, what about all these winter cancel folks? What are we gonna do with them??

It's more like January cancel. You hate to punt the entire middle third of winter but here we are. After our upper 70s it does cool off down to normal for a couple days.

[Ntxw]

Record highs in jeopardy for DFW tomorrow (78F 2017) and Wednesday (83F 1911). Yikes.

[Gotwood]

Record highs in jeopardy for DFW tomorrow (78F 2017) and Wednesday (83F 1911). Yikes.

Looking like that record tomorrow is falling for sure. Will be close Wednesday. Pretty crazy weather for sure can’t believe how dry it has been.

[gpsnowman]

Parts of Siberia on Tuesday could reach the -90s F. Brrrr.

[wxman57]

Wait, what about all these winter cancel folks? What are we gonna do with them??

I vote we just cancel the remainder of this winter. 70s and 80s are fine with me.

Clearly, any winter weather for Texas is going to have to wait until very late this month or more likely in February. Meanwhile, enjoy the above normal temps.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1612675032014020612

[harp]

The question is: When?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The question is: When?

That’s been answered over and over here. Late January.

[Cpv17]

Parts of Siberia on Tuesday could reach the -90s F. Brrrr.

I looked up the record there for coldest temperature ever recorded and it was like -83.9°F in Yakutsk, Russia in February 1891.

And in Verkhoyansk, Russia in 1892 it hit -89.9°F

Then in Oymyakon, Russia it hit the same temperature in 1933 of -89.9°F.

[harp]

The question is: When?

That’s been answered over and over here. Late January.

It was more rhetorical than anything else.

[Cpv17]

The question is: When?

That’s been answered over and over here. Late January.

It was more rhetorical than anything else.

The Pacific starts changing around the 19th or 20th. Ridging should start to go more poleward a few days after that.

[gpsnowman]

Cosgrove with a good post this morning. Just reaffirms what has been discussed on here; late January early February is the target time frame for colder weather.

[Cpv17]

Siberia is locked and loaded ready to unleash its fury on someone. Just waiting for a trigger mechanism.

[Abdullah]

Parts of Siberia on Tuesday could reach the -90s F. Brrrr.

Where? And did this end up happening?

[orangeblood]

Siberia is locked and loaded ready to unleash its fury on someone. Just waiting for a trigger mechanism.

It really is but lots of mixed signals out there if the trigger will even get pressed...CFSv2 now singing a completely different tune to start Feb, delaying the cold push deeper into Feb ++EPO



Although, I do love the look of the current SST anomalies...this Pacific look historically has overwhelmed the country with cold in Feb/March

[Ntxw]

Siberia is locked and loaded ready to unleash its fury on someone. Just waiting for a trigger mechanism.

It really is but lots of mixed signals out there if the trigger will even get pressed...CFSv2 now singing a completely different tune to start Feb, delaying the cold push deeper into Feb ++EPO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1673330400/1675987200-IZBjoKy3xeQ.png

Although, I do love the look of the current SST anomalies...this Pacific look historically has overwhelmed the country with cold in Feb/March
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/ostia-all/globe/sst_anom/1673222400-zxLjePq7N5U.png

I wonder what the disconnect is with CFSv2 on wxbell and tidbits. They are not reflecting the same thing?

[gpsnowman]

Parts of Siberia on Tuesday could reach the -90s F. Brrrr.

Where? And did this end up happening?

Looks like north/central Siberia. It's such a huge area of nothing but frigid cold. Not sure exactly where but according to Ryan Maue models had -90s but maybe only reached the -80s. Not much of a difference. Cpv17 in a post above mentions several Russian cities that have come close to -90. Maybe check those out currently.

[orangeblood]

Siberia is locked and loaded ready to unleash its fury on someone. Just waiting for a trigger mechanism.

It really is but lots of mixed signals out there if the trigger will even get pressed...CFSv2 now singing a completely different tune to start Feb, delaying the cold push deeper into Feb ++EPO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1673330400/1675987200-IZBjoKy3xeQ.png

Although, I do love the look of the current SST anomalies...this Pacific look historically has overwhelmed the country with cold in Feb/March
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/ostia-all/globe/sst_anom/1673222400-zxLjePq7N5U.png

I wonder what the disconnect is with CFSv2 on wxbell and tidbits. They are not reflecting the same thing?

https://i.imgur.com/kgbUYKH.png

I believe tidbits takes past 12 run average and wxbell is latest single run, in this case today's 06Z

[Ntxw]

It really is but lots of mixed signals out there if the trigger will even get pressed...CFSv2 now singing a completely different tune to start Feb, delaying the cold push deeper into Feb ++EPO

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1673330400/1675987200-IZBjoKy3xeQ.png

Although, I do love the look of the current SST anomalies...this Pacific look historically has overwhelmed the country with cold in Feb/March
https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/ostia-all/globe/sst_anom/1673222400-zxLjePq7N5U.png

I wonder what the disconnect is with CFSv2 on wxbell and tidbits. They are not reflecting the same thing?

https://i.imgur.com/kgbUYKH.png

I believe tidbits takes past 12 run average and wxbell is latest single run, in this case today's 06Z

Unless I'm mistaken it's also 6z on tidbits, cfsv2 is an ensemble of runs. The actual NCEP source has below anomalies week 3 and 4 so it may have something to do with discrepancies with climo.