Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Itryatgolf]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.


https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

[Ntxw]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.


https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

[Itryatgolf]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.


https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

A displacement would be good if we get the benefit from it. We want a pattern that supports not only cold but better opportunity at winter precipitation as well

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

A displacement would be good if we get the benefit from it. We want a pattern that supports not only cold but better opportunity at winter precipitation as well

Don't want to see the east -NAO pop up from a full on split. I know the east coast folks don't like that since it favors ECR but we love it if the NAO is neutral or slight neg.

Precipitation is iffy, it is a La Nina. In the coming days if the SOI can continue running good negatives via lower Tahiti pressures, we'll get some tropical connection from the Pacific 7-10 days down the line.

[Itryatgolf]

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

A displacement would be good if we get the benefit from it. We want a pattern that supports not only cold but better opportunity at winter precipitation as well

Don't want to see the east -NAO pop up from a full on split. I know the east coast folks don't like that since it favors ECR but we love it if the NAO is neutral or slight neg.

Precipitation is iffy, it is a La Nina. In the coming days if the SOI can continue running good negatives via lower Tahiti pressures, we'll get some tropical connection from the Pacific 7-10 days down the line.

I know it was a different set up back then, but feb 2021 was a good example with laniña and two decent winter storms and considering it was snowing in low teens where I lived, it was good. Typically the moisture is limited when it's that cold, but not with those set ups

[Ntxw]

I know it was a different set up back then, but feb 2021 was a good example with laniña and two decent winter storms and considering it was snowing in low teens where I lived, it was good. Typically the moisture is limited when it's that cold, but not with those set ups

Having that trof dig into the southwest is so important. It's the best way to tap gulf moisture and Pacific. We don't need much that cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

We already know where this is all heading. But to continue looking at the stratosphere and the breakdown of the PV is pretty spectacular. Not that we need it but it was a symptom of the bottom up disruption, that will continue top down to reinforce the -AO. Another piece to having cold move into the middle latitudes. There is a distinct between good and bad La Nina/El Nino, and the AO often is the difference.


https://i.imgur.com/3l4kDx9.png

https://i.imgur.com/E8ldpTr.png

And to think the idea was perceived back in November and early December of PV dismantling, great forecast.

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

Well stated. Look at Siberia with the modeled ensembles. You are looking at a pretty severe episode of cold when you gander over there.

[bubba hotep]

Ntxw, if we can keep the pv stretched, I believe that would be good enough but it would be nice to see a split as long as we get the true benefits from it instead of Europe

Absolutely do not want to see a split. The progression is good, we don't need to toss it and reshuffle. You split and you risk sending a chunk of the PV to Europe like in prior splits 2011-2012, 2018-2019 etc. You want the whole thing gravitating in North America.

Well stated. Look at Siberia with the modeled ensembles. You are looking at a pretty severe episode of cold when you gander over there.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmTcxbUXoAwuzpY?format=jpg&name=large

Historic cold building on the other side. Does it bleed out into the mid-lats or does it go cross polar?

[Ntxw]

Looks like GFS wants to set up a winter storm as ridge takes hold over NEPAC. Pretty close. This well before any Arctic air mass.

[Brent]

Looks like GFS wants to set up a winter storm as ridge takes hold over NEPAC. Pretty close. This well before any Arctic air mass.

Yeah definitely watching next weekend up here. Some marginal heavy wet snow sounds good right now

[harp]

GFS has gone back to boring. I guess that’s to be expected this far out.

[Cpv17]

West coast troughing (-PNA) showing up again on the ensembles. Not good. Ridge sets up too far west in the Pacific.

[Iceresistance]

There are some mets using the East Asia Forecast, I don't fully understand it, but apparently it's used for the patterns in the USA 2 weeks from now.

[orangeblood]

West coast troughing (-PNA) showing up again on the ensembles. Not good. Ridge sets up too far west in the Pacific.

I'll take my chances with a -PNA anytime, beats a +PNA with much better moisture to work with. All about timing and how far south ULLs can dig. An overrunning battle zone setting up across southern plains towards end of the month. And as always, models will have fits with the shallow Arctic air undercutting the southwest flow aloft...Op Models will look funky on the surface depictions for awhile with this 500mb setup, much different than the Dec Arctic Outbreak

[Cpv17]

West coast troughing (-PNA) showing up again on the ensembles. Not good. Ridge sets up too far west in the Pacific.

I'll take my chances with a -PNA anytime, beats a +PNA any day with much better moisture to work with. All about timing and how far south ULLs can dig. An overrunning battle zone setting up across southern plains towards end of the month. And as always, models will have fits with the shallow Arctic air undercutting the southwest flow aloft...Op Models will look funky on the surface depictions for awhile with this 500mb setup, much different than the Dec Arctic Outbreak

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/qpf_anom_5day/1673589600/1674972000-IrAhtYvurkM.png

Well I’ll take a -PNA over +PNA as well because that means the EC is probably in for a boring pattern. I’d much rather the west have some excitement. Those EC people are spoiled rotten.

[Cpv17]

Love seeing all that rain in Oklahoma on the 6z GFS. They need the rain badly!

[Iceresistance]

SOI index has taken a nosedive, daily SOI at -14.9

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove/status/1613535043900813317

[CaptinCrunch]

SOI index has taken a nosedive, daily SOI at -14.9

The most recent IRI plume predicts that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral during
the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 (Fig. 6). Interestingly, the dynamical models indicate a
faster transition (January-March) than the statistical models (February-April). At this time, the
forecaster consensus favors the statistical models, with a transition to ENSO-neutral in the
February-April 2023 season.

La Niña to ENSO-neutral is anticipated during the February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the chance for ENSO-neutral is 82%

[harp]

After a day or so of excitement, we are back to radio silence….