Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

After a day or so of excitement, we are back to radio silence….

Yeah. Models started going the wrong way at 0z last night. Waiting for the 12z suite to finish.

[Iceresistance]

After a day or so of excitement, we are back to radio silence….

Yeah. Models started going the wrong way at 0z last night. Waiting for the 12z suite to finish.

Still much of nothing, I think that the possible Winter Event is still too far away for it to be picked up by the models.

[Cpv17]

After a day or so of excitement, we are back to radio silence….

Yeah. Models started going the wrong way at 0z last night. Waiting for the 12z suite to finish.

Still much of nothing, I think that the possible Winter Event is still too far away for it to be picked up by the models.

I was referring to the ensembles. I don’t really care what the op’s show past 5 days.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah. Models started going the wrong way at 0z last night. Waiting for the 12z suite to finish.

Still much of nothing, I think that the possible Winter Event is still too far away for it to be picked up by the models.

I was referring to the ensembles. I don’t really care what the op’s show past 5 days.

Snowfall signal improved for my area on the 12z GEFS.

[rwfromkansas]

Cosgrove basically said on FB to ignore the models. Will see.

[orangeblood]

Great 500mb look from the latest GEFS....Jan 25-30th has a lot of potential

[Ntxw]

Yeah. Models started going the wrong way at 0z last night. Waiting for the 12z suite to finish.

Still much of nothing, I think that the possible Winter Event is still too far away for it to be picked up by the models.

I was referring to the ensembles. I don’t really care what the op’s show past 5 days.

Right now you have two camps. Up until the 20th or so the general guidance agrees the pattern flips. After that it's trough placement between the west (GEFS) and the East (GEPS) with EPS somewhere in between. I'd be more comfortable sitting west of the MS River. If you want moisture the west version with cold air overtaking more ideal. SOI dive is legit, Tahiti lower pressures and not TC related. I'd bank on the moisture side.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Great 500mb look from the latest GEFS....Jan 25-30th has a lot of potential

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1673611200/1674626400-7XatCy53L74.png

Can we lock that in? I’ll be on the Continental Divide during that time frame.

[Gotwood]

Got tired of waiting for snow taking the family to Pagosa springs, CO for a few days tomorrow.

[Cerlin]

Finishing up my last day in Denver today. I’m glad to have missed the brief heat wave, even if I only saw one morning with flurries! Got a chance to go towards the mountains and crunch some ice beneath my feet at the very least. Some professionals I talked with at AMS agreed that February is almost a shoe-in to be cooler for the plains than January has been. I’m keeping my fingers crossed!

[Cpv17]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

I’m not. And if it does, it will be short lived.

[Cpv17]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

I’m not. And if it does, it will be short lived.

What makes you so confident about that? We’ve seen it happen before.. just curious.

[Ntxw]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

I’m not. And if it does, it will be short lived.

What makes you so confident about that? We’ve seen it happen before.. just curious.

You have a good concern, but at this range would only be a curious thought. We haven't seen it happen all winter yet. Right now we just need something dig into the west. We need moisture.

[Cpv17]

I’m not. And if it does, it will be short lived.

What makes you so confident about that? We’ve seen it happen before.. just curious.

You have a good concern, but at this range would only be a curious thought. We haven't seen it happen all winter yet. Right now we just need something dig into the west. We need moisture.

Well one thing I’m noticing on the ensembles is that they kinda have a lil bit of a McFarland Signature. But for a true signature we’ll need that ridging to go more poleward.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.

I’m not. And if it does, it will be short lived.

What makes you so confident about that? We’ve seen it happen before.. just curious.

That SE ridge isn’t modeled to be all that aggressive for one, but patterns tend to repeat in a non-constructive or low amplified MJO and as long as we don’t have a split, I don’t see a reshuffle with this one. This pattern will eventually overwhelm the entire country. I wouldn’t mind a SE ridge stopping around Lafayette to Lake Charles and leaving us on the cold side with the STJ pumping.

[Iceresistance]

What makes you so confident about that? We’ve seen it happen before.. just curious.

You have a good concern, but at this range would only be a curious thought. We haven't seen it happen all winter yet. Right now we just need something dig into the west. We need moisture.

Well one thing I’m noticing on the ensembles is that they kinda have a lil bit of a McFarland Signature. But for a true signature we’ll need that ridging to go more poleward.

Also need it to become part of the ECR as well, the ECR is better for the cold here and towards Louisiana than the SE Ridge itself.

[Cpv17]

You have a good concern, but at this range would only be a curious thought. We haven't seen it happen all winter yet. Right now we just need something dig into the west. We need moisture.

Well one thing I’m noticing on the ensembles is that they kinda have a lil bit of a McFarland Signature. But for a true signature we’ll need that ridging to go more poleward.

Also need it to become part of the ECR as well, the ECR is better for the cold here and towards Louisiana than the SE Ridge itself.

The thought of a McFarland Signature with some ECR would be crazy exciting. Not sure I’ve ever experienced a setup like that. Not sure when was the last time we experienced a McFarland Signature.

[Ntxw]

Well one thing I’m noticing on the ensembles is that they kinda have a lil bit of a McFarland Signature. But for a true signature we’ll need that ridging to go more poleward.

Also need it to become part of the ECR as well, the ECR is better for the cold here and towards Louisiana than the SE Ridge itself.

The thought of a McFarland Signature with some ECR would be crazy exciting. Not sure I’ve ever experienced a setup like that. Not sure when was the last time we experienced a McFarland Signature.

McFarland's signature is just a type of pattern. It's basically the pattern recognition of -EPO before we had indexes with a cold air source. Nothing too spectacular about it, he just noted a certain 500mb set up would send cold air south to deep south Texas. Most of our outbreaks of big cold are variations of it.

[bubba hotep]

I’m kinda concerned about the SE ridge poking its head into the eastern half of the state.