To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.
2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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cycloneye
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2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
All about the model runs thru 16 days or upgrades thru 2023 here.
To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.
To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.
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Vince_and_Grace_fan
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:All about the model runs thru 16 days or upgrades thru 2023 here.
To start the runs, what about GFS having what looks like a subtropical storm in the western atlantic? This is mid range from January 16th to the 19th.
https://i.imgur.com/lKHneh4.gif
It has another one SW of the Azores at the same time, which later seems more tropical.
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Iceresistance wrote:Euro is getting upgraded this summer
https://twitter.com/mikesjustsayin/status/1612524751263760384
Wow, more lines to follow.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Euro is getting upgraded this summer
https://twitter.com/mikesjustsayin/status/1612524751263760384
Wow, more lines to follow.
It's probably not gonna happen, but imagine the chaos that would ensue in the wx community if Arlene and Brett both formed this month
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Good GFS and GEFS scores against European thru day 5.
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1613288252835876880
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1613288252835876880
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I posted about this low last monday but the models continue to show it today.
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1613740368935424001
https://twitter.com/WillWeaverRVA/status/1613952128623546404
https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1613740368935424001
https://twitter.com/WillWeaverRVA/status/1613952128623546404
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JetFuel_SE
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The new GFDL SHiELD also seems quite enthusiastic with development.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
JetFuel_SE wrote:The new GFDL SHiELD also seems quite enthusiastic with development.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1006712191522721812/1063568244818051123/simulatedir-GoM-2023011312-081.png
If we get a harmless January NS that spins on off to sea and gains a unique place in Atlantic hurricane season history...then bring it on
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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JetFuel_SE
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The CMC is still showing development, but that model isn't really known to be reliable when it comes to (S)TCG.
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The Euro ensembles are bullish.
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JetFuel_SE
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The ECMWF Master is also quite interesting.
Although I don't think the chances we'll see Arlene from this are very high, it'll be interesting to track its progress.
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JetFuel_SE
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Hurricane2022
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like that the models are in agreement that a low pressure system could evolve into a subtropical system and maybe even get an brief eye-like-feature very soon, in less than 48H.
If the NHC insists on not demarcating this as an area of interest (AOI) or Invest 90L, we may experience delays in monitoring this system if this becomes a subtropical storm.
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Iceresistance
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This may showing winter, but this could have implications for hurricane season 2023.
https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1615787382413869079
https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1615787382413869079
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Hurricane2022
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
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cycloneye
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
cycloneye wrote:Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?
https://i.imgur.com/bVRml3a.png
If this were to develop, it would be only the second NAtl TC to ever form the in the month of February. I wonder why February TCs are so much less frequent than January or April TCs.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:cycloneye wrote:Another low that this early atempts to be subtropical?
https://i.imgur.com/bVRml3a.png
If this were to develop, it would be only the second NAtl TC to ever form the in the month of February. I wonder why February TCs are so much less frequent than January or April TCs.
Generally speaking, basin-wide shear and dry air are much more severe in February than January or April. With that being said, it would be interesting to see what this storm does. So far, it seems like 2023 has no fear in attempting STS or TS genesis even months before June 1 (you can perhaps thank the abnormally warm subtropics for that).
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