Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

[cycloneye]

Based on our friend wxman57, this low may be upgraded at post season and because of that, the annual S2K poll that begins on April 1 may have to count one more when is oficial, Will add a sentence about this at the first post of the poll thread.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on our friend wxman57, this low may be upgraded at post season and because of that, the annual S2K poll that begins on April 1 may have to count one more when is oficial, Will add a sentence about this at the first post of the poll thread.

It would be really funny if somehow, we get a February and a March off-season subtropical or tropical storm, so along with this system, there are 3 unnamed 2023 season storms

[Landy]

At the very least, we can say it hasn't gone under the radar.

[wxman57]

It appears to be peaking today and will weaken as it tracks near eastern Nova Scotia tomorrow. In fact, Nova Scotia is getting stronger wind today than it will receive tomorrow when this little low passes.

[Hurricane2022]

This looks very close to Hurricane status now, if isn't one already

[InfernoFlameCat]

This system looks incredible. Could very well be a 55-60 knot storm.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks as good if not better then the last January hurricane a few years ago. It is utterly mindblowing that advisories isn't being written.

[Landy]

We got an invest!!!

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 986, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,

[Category5Kaiju]

Very curious to see what happens within the next day or so. You would think if it persists and becomes better looking that the NHC may be forced to reconsider?

[AnnularCane]

We got an invest!!!

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 986, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,

It's a start but it seems like we should be past that point now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is a full fledged subtropical storm. If not tropical. I mean, look at that presentation! If it looks like a hurricane, it probably is one! Geez.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2023011612, , BEST, 0, 370N, 657W, 50, 986, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001, SPAWNINVEST, al712023 to al902023,
AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 986, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902023.dat

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90L is up

[InfernoFlameCat]

The first. A january storm would be neat. Although at this point I think we have one. Welcome, 2023 hurricane season!

[Category5Kaiju]

A January storm that could get named and is not a threat to land?

I'm rooting for you to form and get named, Arlene.

[Sciencerocks]

A January storm that could get named and is not a threat to land?

I'm rooting for you to form and get named, Arlene.

Only if it can deepen that convection around that eye and get some sab numbers above 5. Then maybe. More likely if it was in the tropics and had some 6's or 7's.

I disagree strongly with not upgrading tropical cyclones because it will only get a few advisories. Why?

[CrazyC83]

I think an argument could be made for a tropical storm, but the issue is how long it will last and whether there has been solid convection long enough. It is moving into colder waters though...

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

This does remind me somewhat as well of the Nor'easter of January 1992 that curled back into the Mid-Atlantic. I do think that one will be added to HURDAT when reanalysis gets to the early 1990s.

[Sciencerocks]

I think an argument could be made for a tropical storm, but the issue is how long it will last and whether there has been solid convection long enough. It is moving into colder waters though...

What is the argument against it? Besides that it will be short lived.