Suptropical Storm 1 (Upgraded in Pre-season Reanalysis)

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1615056454557536259



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1615065149118812165



 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1615061746590355456

[Sciencerocks]

This isn't a fish or non-threat to land either. Models do show it making landfall. Tropical storm or hurricane warnings are needed.

[Ptarmigan]

It looks tropical or sub-tropical at the very least.

[wxman57]

Very curious to see what happens within the next day or so. You would think if it persists and becomes better looking that the NHC may be forced to reconsider?

It has no time. By sunrise tomorrow it will be moving across the eastern tip of Nova Scotia as a weakening storm with possibly 35kt wind.

[Hurricane2022]

1. No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.

Will the NHC issue another STWO or not? Or will they already start the advisories at 0300z??

[CrazyC83]

This might be something they might just do further reanalysis on.

We've passed normal advisory time (4 pm EST).

[aspen]

It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.

[Sciencerocks]

It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.

I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.

[AnnularCane]

It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.

I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.

And Alex was a hurricane... An unnamed TS is one thing but it's hard to imagine an unnamed hurricane in this day and age.

[Sciencerocks]

It’s kinda ridiculous this only has a 0/0 on the NHC’s site. They’ve really pulled back hard from naming tons of shorties like in 2020/21 and have been super conservative since last season, but as a result have missed several storms that had stronger cases for being classified than stuff like Odette and Teresa (like that 40 kt MDR invest in September). I don’t see why this system with an eyewall and eye isn’t given at least a 50/50 chance.

This sure is a beauty for January. I guess the stubborn high over this part of the Atlantic helped warm up SSTs allowing it to exist.

I doubt they'd even upgrade Alex of 2016 right now. I think it is a reasonable question to ask and I am serious.

That storm developed the same way with a lot of cold air and strato-cu around it and was over cold water...This is every bit as good looking.

And Alex was a hurricane... An unnamed TS is one thing but it's hard to imagine an unnamed hurricane in this day and age.

That microwave image that cycloneye posted suggests that this is also a cane. At least earlier.

[Landy]

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.

AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

[cycloneye]

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.

AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,

[Hurricane2022]

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.

AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

I hope they will revise this BT and upgrade 90L to SS Arlene..

[Landy]

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.

AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,

I did some digging, and it looks like that determines the depth of the system. So now it's medium depth instead of shallow. Found the info here in case I interpreted wrong: https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/do ... abdeck.txt

[zzzh]

Still LO as of 00z (early best track update?), but up to 55kt/983mb.

AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO,

Another change but don't know if it means anything important. From Invest,S to Invest,M.

AL, 90, 2023011618, , BEST, 0, 378N, 636W, 50, 983, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 60, 60, 0, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
AL, 90, 2023011700, , BEST, 0, 399N, 614W, 55, 983, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 240, 240, 120, 1012, 500, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, INVEST, M genesis-num, 001,

That is the depth of the system, S is shallow, M is medium, D is deep.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This is not even a shallow warm core then. What do we need to get this thing named?

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

This is not even a shallow warm core then. What do we need to get this thing named?

I think the prime minister could then direct the Canadian hurricane center to start advisories.

[PavelGaborik10]

Whatever is remaining will make "landfall" in my home town tomorrow.

Not expecting anything more than a light impact, those waters are freezing.

[Landy]

Central convection has been deepening, perhaps deeper than it has been for most of the day, as it quickly approaches cooler waters. You would expect it to start deteriorating pretty soon.