Texas Winter 2022-2023

[ThunderSleetDreams]

This looks pretty good but I personally wanna see it dig more and eject further south.

https://i.postimg.cc/90qXThz9/133-ED728-DC5-B-415-C-B866-1-E0-F81-A85-FD1.png

It’s so close.

Decent look but probably a northern half of the state look there.

[Cpv17]

This looks pretty good but I personally wanna see it dig more and eject further south.

https://i.postimg.cc/90qXThz9/133-ED728-DC5-B-415-C-B866-1-E0-F81-A85-FD1.png

It’s so close.

Decent look but probably a northern half of the state look there.

Since it’s still 8-10 days out maybe it can improve.

One thing I’ve noticed is that second ridge that comes over from south and west of the Aleutians that connects with the ridge over the GOA/Alaska seems to screw up our chances in the longer range. Just when that ridge seems like it wants to grow stronger and possibly more poleward, the other ridge from the west seems to tug it west and they merge near the Aleutians.. this time period has me curious how that will evolve.

That’s the main reason why I’m having my doubts.

[Ntxw]

Snow probability still going for northern half of the state and Oklahoma. Would like the Euro 5h and cold levels while GFS qpf depiction is ideal.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Snow probability still going for northern half of the state and Oklahoma. Would like the Euro 5h and cold levels while GFS qpf depiction is ideal.

https://i.imgur.com/O24H5fW.png

Ha, was just echoing that to a couple of trading buddies.

[WinterMax]

Odd little snow band on the CMC for the Tyler and due ssw. On the 24th.

[Ntxw]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

As the world turns - American Weather model edition

[Portastorm]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

It was interesting on the 0z ensembles that the GFS flexed the SE ridge some while the Euro did not. In fact the Euro retrograded the large scale trough further to the west in the 10-15 day period.

I like how the Euro ensembles are setting up.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

It was interesting on the 0z ensembles that the GFS flexed the SE ridge some while the Euro did not. In fact the Euro retrograded the large scale trough further to the west in the 10-15 day period.

I like how the Euro ensembles are setting up.

Getting primed for our annual Austin freezing rain event …. LOL

[Portastorm]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

It was interesting on the 0z ensembles that the GFS flexed the SE ridge some while the Euro did not. In fact the Euro retrograded the large scale trough further to the west in the 10-15 day period.

I like how the Euro ensembles are setting up.

Getting primed for our annual Austin freezing rain event …. LOL

IKR?! Who needs snow when you can have freezing drizzle!

[Ntxw]

So the GFS has trended to the Euro camp. Question now is...is the cold air going to move too far east? What happened to the modeled SE ridge ?

It was interesting on the 0z ensembles that the GFS flexed the SE ridge some while the Euro did not. In fact the Euro retrograded the large scale trough further to the west in the 10-15 day period.

I like how the Euro ensembles are setting up.

No doubt day 10-15 they retrograde the trof and eventually I think it will but the correction day 7-10 is less SE ridge. I like the Euro suites handling this far. We're in a period of transition so I would definitely not weigh anything too much 5+ days aside from trends.

[Ntxw]

[Cerlin]

https://i.imgur.com/E58HHmu.png

Wow, that is a strong week 3 signal.

[wxman57]

Nothing really cold (for normal folks) indicated in the 12Z GFS. Some temps in the 40s here the last week of January, but no freeze between D-FW and Houston. Normal cold. Just 5 years ago today, I posted a video of snow here in Houston at 4pm with a temp of 26F. That was the third snow of the 2017-2018 winter. I think we had more snow than Chicago at that point.

[Ntxw]

Looks like significant winter storm on the Euro for southern plains.

[txtwister78]

Bastardi beginning to see the threat of cold and winter weather/precip for Texas.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1615057764480389147

[Ntxw]

I definitely understand some of the skepticism, but my goodness it's not like we're moving into a warm pattern! It's not like early winter, the hemispheric cold will press.

[Cpv17]

The latest CPC forecast looks somewhat encouraging.

[harp]

Is this mic on??

[Ntxw]

To sum up the models of late, if you are looking for severe cold like in December, no guidance is showing that right now. And it's not likely to be in the current time frame. We go below normal after the 20th and it's a pattern of winter/snow storms. The further north in the southern plains you live the better your odds.

After the 25th the cold/below normal will entrench deeper.