Texas Winter 2022-2023

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3681 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:33 am

A pattern with ridiculous cold often isn't what we need since it scours moisture, but oh heavens, what we don't need is a pattern in which we are 33 and rainy. That's worse than a dry cold IMO. I am very busy trying to get kids to get the yearbook done on time this year since during the COVID years we were horrid with deadlines. So, until it gets really exciting, hard to spend lots of time here. When it does, I will find the time. Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3682 Postby gboudx » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:52 am

jeff sent an email discussing near record warmth for SETX, but the last paragraph is probably of more interest so pasting only it below.

Longer term pattern suggest a return of colder conditions across the western and potentially the central US into the end of January and start of February. How cold is still very much in question with deep SW US trough likely to keep some of the cold west and northwest of the southern plains at least initially. Also looks fairly active with the southern branch storm track, so increasingly below normal temperatures and above average precipitation going toward the end of the month.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3683 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 17, 2023 11:07 am

The Euro EPS and GEFS are in agreement that the coldest air, relative to avg, in the NMEM in the longer range will be building in WCAN. This could set the stage for a significant cold dump sometime in the 1st half of February.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3684 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:05 pm

The GFS with wildly different solutions on every run, could be inside the dust right now.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3685 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The GFS with wildly different solutions on every run, could be inside the dust right now.


We're in a period of transition (on top of that a complete flip in the Pacific) so it is not surprising to see trouble within guidance. I'd wait until the pattern settles in, for better skill scores.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3686 Postby Cerlin » Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:14 pm

Back in mid-late December, I noticed several people on this forum and some mets on twitter talking about the period after January 20th a return to wintry weather, and based on the model trends over the last week (especially now that operational model runs are starting to signal it), that looks to be shaping up. Major props to you guys for nailing that so early on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3687 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:49 pm

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3688 Postby nathanc1969 » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:09 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3689 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:31 pm

Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3690 Postby harp » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.

I have no faith in that, no matter if I like what it shows or not. It changes like the wind.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3691 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Once again it looks like the CPC isn’t sold on the cold air pressing south. They keep the majority of it in the Rockies and northern plains.


That's more of a snapshot based off current models. It doesn't really reflect the overall pattern potential. In other words, it will change as models change.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3692 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:49 pm

Yeah I agree with y’all. That cold air will build further south after the 25th imo.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3693 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 17, 2023 5:50 pm

There is some rearing of the +PNA. In the back of mind my biggest concern would be the coldest air shifts to the east in the most critical times. Without blocking in Quebec/Atlantic Canada the risk for cold to slide east vs south, albeit early and small at the moment, is there. Head-fakes of cold tends to happen this way. Luckily we are in the time of year cold can overwhelm.
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harp
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3694 Postby harp » Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:17 pm

Well, folks, it looks like there will be ample opportunities for precip in the coming weeks, however (cold air not included)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3695 Postby harp » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:38 pm

Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3696 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:44 pm

harp wrote:Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!


You haven’t and cold will be here. :D
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3697 Postby harp » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:47 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
harp wrote:Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!


You haven’t and cold will be here. :D

Give that man some gumbo and some boiled crawfish from my neck of the woods!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3698 Postby Itryatgolf » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:52 pm

It's taken a while to build cold like bubba hotep alluded to earlier. Hopefully we will have one more opportunity at a winter event before winter is over. We have had a big jet plowing into the west coast so it isn't easy to reverse the pattern yet
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3699 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:54 pm

harp wrote:Omg, I’ve killed this forum!!!

You did not, were just preparing for this upcoming wave of cold air that is coming at the end of this month.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3700 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:03 pm

1 more day of this nasty 70s/80s in the northern half of the state, maybe 2 more days for the southern tier. Then we can get back closer to January normals and stay there at least.
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