SIO: CHENESO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

SH, 96, 2023010918, , BEST, 0, 76S, 715E, 20, 1009, DB

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 962023.dat

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.7S 80.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 80.5E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD. A 132244Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 131632Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A MORE
SYMMETRIC AND DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29) SST, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20KT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT 96S
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1614283256941219843

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.6S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 79.8E, APPROXIMATELY 438 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE WEST. A 141508Z AMSU-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSELY DEFINED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND A SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC. INVEST 96S IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS, HOWEVER STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SST REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE TAKING ON A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 62.4E TO 14.0S 51.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 62.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 24 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 64.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 62.1E APPROXIMATELY 531 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
170335 89GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN AMBIGUOUS, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), LOW VWS (10-15KT) AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 96S TRACKING WESTWARD WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION
IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[cycloneye]

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/j8EQ9Jh.gif

Where is the invest?

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/j8EQ9Jh.gif

Where is the invest?

Just NE of Madagascar.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1615498711743823874

[cycloneye]

SH, 08, 2023011800, , BEST, 0, 143S, 565E, 55, 993, TS

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

Officially, still only a depression according to Meteo France. JTWC is not the official RSMC of any basin.

[cycloneye]

https://meteofrance.re/fr/cyclone

[doomhaMwx]

It appears to be organising quickly now (small eye feature becoming more apparent on latest satellite images). Although JTWC and Meteo-France show a strong tropical storm at landfall over NE Madagascar, a typhoon-strength system can't be ruled out.

[ChrisH-UK]

Landfall should be later today but they main risk is the flooding as it stalls out over northern Madagascar with areas receiving 40-50 inches of rain over the next 5 days according to GFS. So could be looking at some major flooding risk.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]