Texas Winter 2022-2023

[snowballzzz]

Well, that would leave a mark.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674043200/1674604800-I6Z3vUVrM4U.png

The CMC is hinting at something similar for the 24th-26th.

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif

[harp]

????

[orangeblood]

It's pretty marginal but a well modeled system for days now.

1. How strong will the system be coming out?
2. How cold is the surface?
3. What orientation?

Need the stars to align. Would like to see a better HP show up to the north.

Agreed, extremely rare to see accumulating snow down here with not only with a sub 1030 HP but a low pressure system across southern Canada...just doesn't look right. Low confidence

[gboudx]

????

It's pretty much Oklahoma specific. You're not missing much if you can't see the gif.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1615789764178755604

[CaptinCrunch]

Last Part of NWS FTW Extended Forecast

An active and progressive upper air pattern will continue into
next week, with the next upper low digging south through the Four
Corners area Sunday night, and into West Texas on Monday.
Precipitation (once again associated with isentropic ascent)
should begin Monday evening as the upper low approaches from the
west. An attendant surface cyclone will accompany the upper low,
both of which will cross North and Central Texas on Tuesday. Model
guidance has generally trended deeper with the upper level
system compared to previous runs. At this time, the indications
are that a cold rain is still by far the most likely precipitation
type, especially since surface temperatures are expected to be
above freezing, but will need to keep an eye on model trends over
the next several days.

Either way, it will feel more like January from Thursday onward,
as more seasonable temperatures and a couple of shots at
precipitation arrive.

[Ntxw]

ENS are starting to creep in the -NAO (east based) which was starting my concern with cold and systems shifting east long range.

[Brent]

Uh oh

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/prbww_sn25_DAY7_conus.gif

That must be why Tulsa is mentioning snow Monday night through Tuesday night

[Ntxw]

18z GFS isn't a bad ejection for the northern half of the state. It went a little stronger than its prior runs. Now we need to look for some cold.

[rwfromkansas]

ENS are starting to creep in the -NAO (east based) which was starting my concern with cold and systems shifting east long range.

Well shucks.

[Ntxw]

ENS are starting to creep in the -NAO (east based) which was starting my concern with cold and systems shifting east long range.

Well shucks.

It's not a bad pattern for snow, this is what we're entering. Just if you're looking for big severe arctic blasts it tends to favor glancing blows.

[Iceresistance]

ENS are starting to creep in the -NAO (east based) which was starting my concern with cold and systems shifting east long range.

Well shucks.

It's not a bad pattern for snow, this is what we're entering. Just if you're looking for big severe arctic blasts it tends to favor glancing blows.

Now this is where we need a poleward SE Ridge and the ECR.

[Ntxw]

Well shucks.

It's not a bad pattern for snow, this is what we're entering. Just if you're looking for big severe arctic blasts it tends to favor glancing blows.

Now this is where we need a poleward SE Ridge and the ECR.

Later in winter doesn't favor SE ridge. The hemisphere has cooled significant enough that it's really hard for SE ridge to pop and push back against the broader cold. It's two different animals early vs late winter. What we need is blocking to shift to Quebec and Hudson Bay.

[Itryatgolf]

It's not a bad pattern for snow, this is what we're entering. Just if you're looking for big severe arctic blasts it tends to favor glancing blows.

Now this is where we need a poleward SE Ridge and the ECR.

Later in winter doesn't favor SE ridge. The hemisphere has cooled significant enough that it's really hard for SE ridge to pop and push back against the broader cold. It's two different animals early vs late winter. What we need is blocking to shift to Quebec and Hudson Bay.

Ntxw, go to twitter and look for wxjay. He is a meteorology professor from okc and he has some good insights on things that are evolving moving forward. His actual name is jason furtado. Let me know what he is saying please

[Iceresistance]

Now this is where we need a poleward SE Ridge and the ECR.

Later in winter doesn't favor SE ridge. The hemisphere has cooled significant enough that it's really hard for SE ridge to pop and push back against the broader cold. It's two different animals early vs late winter. What we need is blocking to shift to Quebec and Hudson Bay.

Ntxw, go to twitter and look for wxjay. He is a meteorology professor from okc and he has some good insights on things that are evolving moving forward. His actual name is jason furtado. Let me know what he is saying please

I'm not Ntxw, but I found this from him
 https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1615810164111835136

[Itryatgolf]

I typically don't bet against the euro, but I feel the gfs will be correct unfortunately. Rull of thumb is the model not showing snow is the way to go

[Cpv17]

I typically don't bet against the euro, but I feel the gfs will be correct unfortunately. Rull of thumb is the model not showing snow is the way to go

Not sure if it’s true or not but I heard the Euro was showing all that snow in areas where temps were above freezing.

[Brent]

I typically don't bet against the euro, but I feel the gfs will be correct unfortunately. Rull of thumb is the model not showing snow is the way to go

Not sure if it’s true or not but I heard the Euro was showing all that snow in areas where temps were above freezing.

I mean it can snow with temps above freezing. Actually I kind of prefer that wet snow to the dry powder anyway I saw it many times growing up in Alabama

I dunno if next week will happen or not here but temps alone aren't going to decide if it does. I'm pretty sure this won't be our only shot anyway regardless

[txprog83]

Any guesses/forecasts on when DFW will record a freeze?
We are in truly historical territory here. No reading at 32 or below yet in January at DFW and none yet forecast.
Looks like, in the last 125 years, only January 1938 rivals this year, with a first January freeze coming on the 30th.
All other years had a freeze by the 20th.
This is once a century stuff we are experiencing.