Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Edwards Limestone]

[orangeblood]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023012012/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_44.png

A Very welcomed January QPF event

[bubba hotep]

[orangeblood]

[imgur][/imgur]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fm8ZNpYaAAEOsyX?format=png&name=4096x4096

Someone is going to get some incredible snowfall rates with this system...2-3 inch/hour type range maybe possible

[Quixotic]

Ugh. It’s going to be all rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh. It’s going to be all rain.

I have hope for some changes, but it would have to change a decent amount....right now I'm expecting some flurries at the end like December unless it really shifts south.

[Quixotic]

Ugh. It’s going to be all rain.

I have hope for some changes, but it would have to change a decent amount....right now I'm expecting some flurries at the end like December unless it really shifts south.

There’s always hope. Just don’t think it’s going to be cold enough. Heck, this looks like one of those storms that does nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Oklahoma whiffed.

[Brent]

Ugh. It’s going to be all rain.

I have hope for some changes, but it would have to change a decent amount....right now I'm expecting some flurries at the end like December unless it really shifts south.

There’s always hope. Just don’t think it’s going to be cold enough. Heck, this looks like one of those storms that does nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Oklahoma whiffed.

Temps are definitely concerning here but as long as we get heavy precip I think we'll at least get something. Yeah I'm never gonna believe the GFS totals til I see it though

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS is just MADNESS!

[Iceresistance]

I have hope for some changes, but it would have to change a decent amount....right now I'm expecting some flurries at the end like December unless it really shifts south.

There’s always hope. Just don’t think it’s going to be cold enough. Heck, this looks like one of those storms that does nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Oklahoma whiffed.

Temps are definitely concerning here but as long as we get heavy precip I think we'll at least get something. Yeah I'm never gonna believe the GFS totals til I see it though

Model soundings have shown that this is a "Below freezing all the way down the surface".

I once found a GFS sounding that featured a DGZ of nearly 4000 feet!

[Brent]

There’s always hope. Just don’t think it’s going to be cold enough. Heck, this looks like one of those storms that does nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Oklahoma whiffed.

Temps are definitely concerning here but as long as we get heavy precip I think we'll at least get something. Yeah I'm never gonna believe the GFS totals til I see it though

Model soundings have shown that this is a "Below freezing all the way down the surface".

I once found a GFS sounding that featured a DGZ of nearly 4000 feet!

Well yeah if it's heavy wet snow it'll force the temps down. I've seen it many times before even back in Alabama. I remember a legit snowstorm at 36 degrees there when I was a kid... Roads were just wet mostly

[Cerlin]

The 18z GFS is just MADNESS!

I kinda thought the 12z GFS would be a one time fantasy run. I didn’t think the 18z would mirror it!

[Haris]

18z GEFS are hella nice for DFW

[Brent]

"Several" inches across most of the state on TV just now. Did have a highest totals west of OKC

[Quixotic]

I have hope for some changes, but it would have to change a decent amount....right now I'm expecting some flurries at the end like December unless it really shifts south.

There’s always hope. Just don’t think it’s going to be cold enough. Heck, this looks like one of those storms that does nothing. I wouldn’t be surprised if even Oklahoma whiffed.

Temps are definitely concerning here but as long as we get heavy precip I think we'll at least get something. Yeah I'm never gonna believe the GFS totals til I see it though

Hey, I’m a glass is half full person. If it works out then I’ll be glad to be wrong. That said, I’ve seen snow/sleet/rain ruin great chances by releasing latent heat. Then again, we can always hope for a Feb ‘10 type storm that just overwhelmed the warm temps with amounts. But that’s the biggest snowfall ever. March 87 we had a wrapped up low that blasted through here. That’s the heaviest I’ve ever seen and I worked Canada for decades. Overwhelmed the 38 degree temps.

[Iceresistance]

"Several" inches across most of the state on TV just now. Did have a highest totals west of OKC

https://i.ibb.co/89N5hvy/IMG-20230120-164643986-HDR.jpg

Goodness, I translated "Several" to 4-8 inches.

[orangeblood]

18z GEFS are hella nice for DFW

Definite south trend

[txtwister78]

18z GEFS are hella nice for DFW

Definite south trend
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_24hr/1674237600/1674615600-8Vatgk1ldz8.png

I don't know if I would call that a trend just yet. I think what you're seeing in that 18z run is a few members putting some impressive totals along/just south of the river and thus resulting in a higher mean output further south as a result. Nice beneficial rainfall signal though.

[rwfromkansas]

Steve Macaulay sticking with rain here but joking that his peaches are budding so it may go south.

[Quixotic]

18z GEFS are hella nice for DFW

Definite south trend
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/snow_24hr/1674237600/1674615600-8Vatgk1ldz8.png

I don't know if I would call that a trend just yet. I think what you're seeing in that 18z run is a few members putting some impressive totals along/just south of the river and thus resulting in a higher mean output further south as a result. Nice beneficial rainfall signal though.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/snow_total_multimember_panel/1674237600/1674691200-hb3pe8Xye84.png

Yeah. Unless you’re willing to do many many more runs, one outlier can make the mean look pretty juicy.