Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Quixotic]

That said, I see 6 members showing something meaningful from 12z. I see 8 for 18z so marginal improvement.

[Ntxw]

In the medium/long range the GFS continues to depart from the other globals as well as its own ensembles. Not sure I put a lot of faith in this model, it's proven to be erratic of late. That update a few months ago didn't help. There should be a cold blast of some kind ending days of Jan and opening days of Feb.

[Itryatgolf]

In the medium/long range the GFS continues to depart from the other globals as well as its own ensembles. Not sure I put a lot of faith in this model, it's proven to be erratic of late. That update a few months ago didn't help. There should be a cold blast of some kind ending days of Jan and opening days of Feb.

Like I mentioned yesterday, I would be doing backflips and cart wheels if their was a legit cold air mass that could force a se track. Don't think this one is in the cards except for Oklahoma and Southern Kansas imo unless we get some hellacious shifts.

[Cpv17]

In the medium/long range the GFS continues to depart from the other globals as well as its own ensembles. Not sure I put a lot of faith in this model, it's proven to be erratic of late. That update a few months ago didn't help. There should be a cold blast of some kind ending days of Jan and opening days of Feb.

Like I mentioned yesterday, I would be doing backflips and cart wheels if their was a legit cold air mass that could force a se track. Don't think this one is in the cards except for Oklahoma and Southern Kansas imo unless we get some hellacious shifts.

Look for another system late month or first week of February when the potential real cold arrives.

[orangeblood]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…



Control


And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special

[Ntxw]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

The differences up north. Kicker energy if slower or doesn't phase too much will allow the bowling ball low to continue digging or chug east before making the turn. With a harder kicking energy then the turn would happen faster. Cold 850s on the 18z euro is also much faster to move in. This is important since surface temps are not terribly cold even in Oklahoma. Cold pocket sits where the core energy of the ULL crosses.

With the cold above and warm below, where heaviest qpf happens we may have a discussion about supercooled droplets.

[Itryatgolf]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

The differences up north. Kicker energy if slower or doesn't phase too much will allow the bowling ball low to continue digging or chug east before making the turn. With a harder kicking energy then the turn would happen faster. Cold 850s on the 18z euro is also much faster to move in. This is important since surface temps are not terribly cold even in Oklahoma. Cold pocket sits where the core energy of the ULL crosses.

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending positive has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

[Ntxw]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

The differences up north. Kicker energy if slower or doesn't phase too much will allow the bowling ball low to continue digging or chug east before making the turn. With a harder kicking energy then the turn would happen faster. Cold 850s on the 18z euro is also much faster to move in. This is important since surface temps are not terribly cold even in Oklahoma. Cold pocket sits where the core energy of the ULL crosses.

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending negative has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

[Ntxw]

If you discount the OP GFS, its own ensembles as well as the other OP guidance drains Siberia soon and builds it over North America.

[Cpv17]

If you discount the OP GFS, its own ensembles as well as the other OP guidance drains Siberia soon and builds it over North America.

https://i.imgur.com/qZPkdok.png

https://i.imgur.com/SRnlNYm.png

Good lord, that’s some serious cold!

[Itryatgolf]

The differences up north. Kicker energy if slower or doesn't phase too much will allow the bowling ball low to continue digging or chug east before making the turn. With a harder kicking energy then the turn would happen faster. Cold 850s on the 18z euro is also much faster to move in. This is important since surface temps are not terribly cold even in Oklahoma. Cold pocket sits where the core energy of the ULL crosses.

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending negative has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

All I'm saying is I would be more excited if a -epo was developing to send the cold far enough south instead of it getting hung up in the plains

[Ntxw]

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending negative has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

All I'm saying is I would be more excited if a -epo was developing to send the cold far enough south instead of it getting hung up in the plains

Big -EPO would be nice. But we don't need a gargantuan one, air mass is colder this late in winter. Just need the right delivery pattern. Some -EPO and favorable west-central trough.

[txtwister78]

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending negative has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

All I'm saying is I would be more excited if a -epo was developing to send the cold far enough south instead of it getting hung up in the plains

[orangeblood]

JB saying 2-4 week lag before ssw benefits kick in for sensible weather here in the US. Imo, I really believe the ao trending negative has something to do with ongoing strat warming but not 100% guaranteed of course

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

All I'm saying is I would be more excited if a -epo was developing to send the cold far enough south instead of it getting hung up in the plains

I think that kind of dense Siberian cold will always be further south that models show at this range, we see it almost every winter.

What JB is concerned about is the MJO forcing a pull back of cold to NW North America to start Feb and subsequent warm up before plunge 2nd half of Feb…tough forecast

[orangeblood]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

The differences up north. Kicker energy if slower or doesn't phase too much will allow the bowling ball low to continue digging or chug east before making the turn. With a harder kicking energy then the turn would happen faster. Cold 850s on the 18z euro is also much faster to move in. This is important since surface temps are not terribly cold even in Oklahoma. Cold pocket sits where the core energy of the ULL crosses.

With the cold above and warm below, where heaviest qpf happens we may have a discussion about supercooled droplets.

Yep, that kicker may miss to the north according to the latest Euro Op…something to watch for overnight runs

[Itryatgolf]

The TPV is already going to sit over Hudson Bay. I'm not sure what a strat warming that's already been occurring will do much more since you want it to send cold to North America? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong?

All I'm saying is I would be more excited if a -epo was developing to send the cold far enough south instead of it getting hung up in the plains

I think that kind of dense Siberian cold will always be further south that models show at this range, we see it almost every winter.

What JB is concerned about is the MJO forcing a pull back of cold to NW North America to start Feb and subsequent warm up before plunge 2nd half of Feb…tough forecast

I think he is orangeblood. Just happy I saw 2in in December with that big blast. Guaranteed I won't get shut out lol

[Quixotic]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

Faster, more digging trough.

[SnowintheFalls]

18Z Euro ENS creeping south as well…

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-znjZyc5702o.png

Control
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/scentus/snow_48hr/1674237600/1674691200-qEULmNfPSaI.png

And the Op ULL is in the sweet spot for an I-20 special
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/z500_anom/1674237600/1674561600-GrFmHl8qvgY.png

Yeah, I'll take that 7.7 inches and run!

[Ntxw]

[Ntxw]

I-20 to I-40 has a lot of interest. Inside of 100 hours trends.