Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

What the heck Euro? Why the sleetfest?

Temperature profiles. You have to be cautious with the websites you use for interpretation. Skew-T's the way to go The warm layer is near the surface not above. I still think it's either snow or rain, with dynamics help. This Euro run is pretty good for areas west and just NW of DFW, Abilene-WF winners.

[BigB0882]

Holy poop!! I am loving the 12Z GFS for my area!! I’m sure it’s a rogue run, but wow!!

26 inches of snow and ice in Baton Rouge Harp, we ridin baw !! Hahaha

Are there any images available to share? I’d love to screenshot that one. Lol

[South Texas Storms]

What the heck Euro? Why the sleetfest?

Temperature profiles. You have to be cautious with the websites you use for interpretation. Skew-T's the way to go The warm layer is near the surface not above. I still think it's either snow or rain, with dynamics help.

On WeatherBell, I'm not seeing any sleet being depicted by the Euro. Either rain or snow, which looks very reasonable. For the 12z run, the Euro shifted very slightly south from the 0z run.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Maybe Alaska ?? These are incredible 7 day anomalies for the lower 48

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/nhemi/t2m_f_anom_7day/1674302400/1675641600-ntmWfHJwfwU.png

Yeah December was very different. Great delivery pattern, one of the best but no local cold air, strictly what came and went from Siberia.

Now it's very different, we're in the time of season notorious for TPV events, the cold factory machine along with that Siberian infusion. It's fascinating to learn over the years how cold can be derived at points in the winter season.

It truly is…the rubber band effect , push/pull dynamic is what fascinates me the most. You pull the band one way or another, it almost always snaps back and the harder you pull out the harder it swings the other way. Just looking at a snap shot of an entire 90-120 day period doesn’t tell you much…most of the time it will look normal temp wise but it can be a heck of a roller coaster ride if you’re in it day to day/week to week

Winter of '05-06' i remember JB talking about this. Never forgot it since. So true.

I have to head out so cant fully investigate the flip in models but this is setting up to be a huge event. Is it too greedy to get some blocking in Eastern Canada to lock in the PV? If so, it would look very familiar to that other event in Feb.

We were expecting 8" Sunday night but now we are expected to get nada. Happy to have you DFW folk steal our storm from us!

[Iceresistance]

What the heck Euro? Why the sleetfest?

Temperature profiles. You have to be cautious with the websites you use for interpretation. Skew-T's the way to go The warm layer is near the surface not above. I still think it's either snow or rain, with dynamics help.

On WeatherBell, I'm not seeing any sleet being depicted by the Euro. Either rain or snow, which looks very reasonable. For the 12z run, the Euro shifted very slightly south from the 0z run.

I was looking up Pivotal Weather, but the point sounding was showing "Snow" instead of the sleet.

[Portastorm]

That 12z GFS run is a piece of work, isn’t it gang?!

Someone tell Dennis Quaid to get his snowshoes ready.

[Ntxw]

Not sure if the Euro will bring the hammer like the GFS did, but still setting it up to 144 hrs. That ridge in the Northeast Pacific is nearly 590dm. Summer time stuff and stronger than the Caribbean ridge...

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure if the Euro will bring the hammer like the GFS did, but still setting it up to 144 hrs. That ridge in the Northeast Pacific is nearly 590dm. Summer time stuff and stronger than the Caribbean ridge...

GFS depiction the last couple runs looks to be favoring that step-down pattern I believe you and some others alluded to. I’m not holding my breath for Tuesday here in dfw, 1/30 - 2/10 looks like prime time to me.

[BigB0882]

What day is the 12Z GFS showing the crazy solution? I know it will likely be a one run for fun type of thing but want to keep that day in mind for future model runs.

[Iceresistance]

I don't think I have ever seen the Euro feature the Super -EPO, let alone a 1055+ mb HP to the South of Alaska . . .


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/ec-fast_z500a_namer_9.png


https://s3.gifyu.com/images/ec-fast_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[Ntxw]

Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.

[Iceresistance]

Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.

Stupid Southern Ridge!

[orangeblood]

Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.

Seems like a legit threat looking at MJO progression…rug could get pulled if it gets any amplitude into Phase 3/4

[Iceresistance]

Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.

Seems like a legit threat looking at MJO progression…rug could get pulled if it gets any amplitude into Phase 3/4

Unfortunately, the MJO just jumped into Phase 3.

[EnnisTx]

Wow, this forum is like a roller coaster with Debbie Downer riding it..

[Iceresistance]

Wow, this forum is like a roller coaster with Debbie Downer riding it..

Just like the models, they've been flip-flopping.

[South Texas Storms]

Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.

Seems like a legit threat looking at MJO progression…rug could get pulled if it gets any amplitude into Phase 3/4

Euro Ensembles support the operational. Above normal temps for TX early February. Another arctic outbreak is no where near guaranteed for us again this winter.

[Iceresistance]

Argh, the SE Ridge is now trying to become the Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge again . . .

[harp]

I guess we’ll see which model wins…

[rwfromkansas]

What the heck Euro? Why the sleetfest?

Temperature profiles. You have to be cautious with the websites you use for interpretation. Skew-T's the way to go The warm layer is near the surface not above. I still think it's either snow or rain, with dynamics help. This Euro run is pretty good for areas west and just NW of DFW, Abilene-WF winners.

Ah, the usual.