
Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Tulsa only showing an inch or less here Tuesday. Definitely not impressed 

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#neversummer
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
South Texas Storms wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.
Seems like a legit threat looking at MJO progression…rug could get pulled if it gets any amplitude into Phase 3/4
Euro Ensembles support the operational. Above normal temps for TX early February. Another arctic outbreak is no where near guaranteed for us again this winter.
This has been my concern all along, that we would see a brief return of seasonal weather and then the Pacific would shut us down again. Using ENSO adjusted, MJO is pretty amped into P4.

Then the composites aren't great looking...

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I got NAMed on the 18z NAM
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:I got NAMed on the 18z NAM
Yea, the NAM looks really good for parts of OK/AR with surface temps down to 32F and a lot of the snow falling after 00z, so pretty good timing as well.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
18z GFS gives me 6-8 inches, the ratio is going to be between 8:1 and 7:1, the total QPF Is between .9 and 1.3 inches. Those snowflakes are probably going to be huge.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
If this system fails to produce, the next one (January 29th to February 1st) may will.
GEFS continues to trend with even less snow.
GEFS continues to trend with even less snow.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:If this system fails to produce, the next one (January 29th to February 1st) may will.
GEFS continues to trend with even less snow.
Part of that is the depth of cold associated with the low ejecting out of the SW has been a little warmer (opening up as it comes out) per some of the 12z guidance today, but the other factor is as we get closer to the event itself the spread of the ensemble members is not as divergent, so you see that tightening of the snow output.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .
Storms one after another in quick succession!
Storms one after another in quick succession!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
System is spinning over Seattle currently.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- SnowintheFalls
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .
Storms one after another in quick succession!
Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!
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There is no day like a snow day!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
SnowintheFalls wrote:Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .
Storms one after another in quick succession!
Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!
I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway. Euro had the HP and cold but bottles it up.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:SnowintheFalls wrote:Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .
Storms one after another in quick succession!
Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!
I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway.
It all depends on the MJO, if it does not move into Phase 4, then the GFS solution may just work out better.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:10 day GFS anomalies next level cold…wow!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/namer/t2m_f_anom_10day/1674324000/1675706400-Y0R0E6qiiYQ.png
Meanwhile the GFS Ensemble keeps most of the cold air bottled up to the north of TX. The operational GFS is a cold outlier right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:SnowintheFalls wrote:
Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!
I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway.
It all depends on the MJO, if it does not move into Phase 4, then the GFS solution may just work out better.
I’m a little more optimistic looking at Euro MJO, it doesn’t make sense with its 500mb depiction. MJO crashes like this, that Arctic door will be locked up across the lower 48 similar to what GFS Op is showing

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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.
Yeah i dont see that happening either. Wants to roll the SE Ridge towards the gulf too.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
There is so much strat warming going on that if it sets up correctly, it very well could overwhelm the pattern. Key word is IF.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.
Dig baby, dig.
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