Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3981 Postby Brent » Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:44 pm

Tulsa only showing an inch or less here Tuesday. Definitely not impressed :lol:
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3982 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:47 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.


Seems like a legit threat looking at MJO progression…rug could get pulled if it gets any amplitude into Phase 3/4


Euro Ensembles support the operational. Above normal temps for TX early February. Another arctic outbreak is no where near guaranteed for us again this winter.


This has been my concern all along, that we would see a brief return of seasonal weather and then the Pacific would shut us down again. Using ENSO adjusted, MJO is pretty amped into P4.

Image

Then the composites aren't great looking...

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3983 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:56 pm

I got NAMed on the 18z NAM
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3984 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Jan 21, 2023 4:03 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I got NAMed on the 18z NAM


Yea, the NAM looks really good for parts of OK/AR with surface temps down to 32F and a lot of the snow falling after 00z, so pretty good timing as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3985 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:01 pm

18z GFS gives me 6-8 inches, the ratio is going to be between 8:1 and 7:1, the total QPF Is between .9 and 1.3 inches. Those snowflakes are probably going to be huge.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3986 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 21, 2023 5:30 pm

If this system fails to produce, the next one (January 29th to February 1st) may will.


GEFS continues to trend with even less snow.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3987 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:01 pm

Iceresistance wrote:If this system fails to produce, the next one (January 29th to February 1st) may will.


GEFS continues to trend with even less snow.


Part of that is the depth of cold associated with the low ejecting out of the SW has been a little warmer (opening up as it comes out) per some of the 12z guidance today, but the other factor is as we get closer to the event itself the spread of the ensemble members is not as divergent, so you see that tightening of the snow output.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3988 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:12 pm

18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .


Storms one after another in quick succession!
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3989 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:26 pm

System is spinning over Seattle currently.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3990 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:27 pm

Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .


Storms one after another in quick succession!


Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3991 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:35 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .


Storms one after another in quick succession!


Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!


I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway. Euro had the HP and cold but bottles it up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3992 Postby harp » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:37 pm

I’m looking towards the first few days of February for my area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3993 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 21, 2023 6:48 pm

10 day GFS anomalies next level cold…wow!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3994 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:18z GFS is wow, just wow . . .


Storms one after another in quick succession!


Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!


I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway.

It all depends on the MJO, if it does not move into Phase 4, then the GFS solution may just work out better.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3995 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:06 pm



Meanwhile the GFS Ensemble keeps most of the cold air bottled up to the north of TX. The operational GFS is a cold outlier right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3996 Postby orangeblood » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:11 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
SnowintheFalls wrote:
Wouldn't that be awesome but pretty sure the GFS is off it's rocker right now!


I think in the end the Euro will win out. What we would like is the CMC solution. It's 5h supports the Euro but so much cold that it overwhelms the pattern anyway.

It all depends on the MJO, if it does not move into Phase 4, then the GFS solution may just work out better.


I’m a little more optimistic looking at Euro MJO, it doesn’t make sense with its 500mb depiction. MJO crashes like this, that Arctic door will be locked up across the lower 48 similar to what GFS Op is showing
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3997 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Jan 21, 2023 7:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro sends the trough into the Pacific Ocean, no go on this run.


Yeah i dont see that happening either. Wants to roll the SE Ridge towards the gulf too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3998 Postby Itryatgolf » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:35 pm

There is so much strat warming going on that if it sets up correctly, it very well could overwhelm the pattern. Key word is IF.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#3999 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:46 pm

18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4000 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Jan 21, 2023 8:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:18z euro gives DFW a few inches of snow. System should be well sampled now, come on 0z pull through.


Dig baby, dig.
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