Texas Winter 2022-2023

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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4101 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:18 pm



For DFW it really comes down to the track and whether there is a brief window for a changeover at the tail end of the low/wrap around precip. A track slightly north and it's probably not in the cards, but if the track moves a little further south than what most models currently show, then you could see a brief changeover as it clears the area but by in large it would still be a minimal event as a result of surface temps being too warm throughout the duration.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4102 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:39 pm

Even brief heavy snow would beat the December flurry fest, so I would take it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4103 Postby Quixotic » Sun Jan 22, 2023 5:52 pm

NGL. This a nightmare call. This is a storm that can burn you either way because of the thermodynamics. A cold rain mixed with catpaws or a total thunder snow that can drop double digits. I don’t envy forecasters on this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4104 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:02 pm

Denton, TX gets 9-10 inches of 10:1 snowfall compared to 1-4 inches in DFW on the 18z GEFS, lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4105 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:03 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Denton, TX gets 9-10 inches of 10:1 snowfall compared to 1-4 inches in DFW on the 18z GEFS, lol.


Shades of March 2008.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4106 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:14 pm

I grew up in Denton. We definitely had more snow than Dallas proper most events.

I remember one day we had 4-6” and got the day off school. After sledding that morning we had to go to Dallas for something. I remember cars looking at us like we were aliens since our car was still covered in snow and they had seen nada.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4107 Postby Haris » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:19 pm

Texas Snow wrote:I grew up in Denton. We definitely had more snow than Dallas proper most events.

I remember one day we had 4-6” and got the day off school. After sledding that morning we had to go to Dallas for something. I remember cars looking at us like we were aliens since our car was still covered in snow and they had seen nada.


urban heat island stuff
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4108 Postby Quixotic » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Denton, TX gets 9-10 inches of 10:1 snowfall compared to 1-4 inches in DFW on the 18z GEFS, lol.


Shades of March 2008.

https://i.imgur.com/qLyiVEr.jpg


Exhibit A. Got three inches. Friend of mine 10 miles away got 10”. Flakes the size of my fist.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4109 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:27 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Denton, TX gets 9-10 inches of 10:1 snowfall compared to 1-4 inches in DFW on the 18z GEFS, lol.


Shades of March 2008.

https://i.imgur.com/qLyiVEr.jpg

Likely that, but on a much larger scale to the north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4110 Postby harp » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:34 pm

The GFS will simply not allow that arctic air to come south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4111 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:41 pm

harp wrote:The GFS will simply not allow that arctic air to come south.

SE Ridge is blocking it from even coming south very far in the first place, but that is being overestimated on what it looks like.
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4112 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:43 pm

harp wrote:The GFS will simply not allow that arctic air to come south.


Stop looking at operational models past 5 days out. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment by doing that. You’ve been on here long enough to know better.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4113 Postby harp » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:45 pm

I can’t believe the ridge would be that strong in the dead middle of winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4114 Postby harp » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:The GFS will simply not allow that arctic air to come south.


Stop looking at operational models past 5 days out. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment by doing that. You’ve been on here long enough to know better.

I was making an observation. Nothing more. I don’t need to be schooled on this. Thank you.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4115 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:53 pm

harp wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:The GFS will simply not allow that arctic air to come south.


Stop looking at operational models past 5 days out. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment by doing that. You’ve been on here long enough to know better.

I was making an observation. Nothing more. I don’t need to be schooled on this. Thank you.


Anything past 5 days look at the ensembles, not operationals. Operationals past 5 days are going to bounce around all over the place.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4116 Postby harp » Sun Jan 22, 2023 6:57 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Stop looking at operational models past 5 days out. You’re setting yourself up for disappointment by doing that. You’ve been on here long enough to know better.

I was making an observation. Nothing more. I don’t need to be schooled on this. Thank you.


Anything past 5 days look at the ensembles, not operationals. Operationals past 5 days are going to bounce around all over the place.

And I realize that..
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4117 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:04 pm

harp wrote:I can’t believe the ridge would be that strong in the dead middle of winter.


Models have been showing the SE ridge trying to flex in the longer range several times but usually lately it’s been pushed back further east once it gets in the medium range. I’m not too worried about it but you’re gonna be more vulnerable to it because of your location. Texas has a better chance as of now. I’m not confident one way or the other right now. Still completely up in the air if we get an Artic blast or not. Probably by Wednesday we’ll have a much better idea.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4118 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:I can’t believe the ridge would be that strong in the dead middle of winter.


Models have been showing the SE ridge trying to flex in the longer range several times but usually lately it’s been pushed back further east once it gets in the medium range. I’m not too worried about it but you’re gonna be more vulnerable to it because of your location. Texas has a better chance as of now. I’m not confident one way or the other right now. Still completely up in the air if we get an Artic blast or not. Probably by Wednesday we’ll have a much better idea.

I think that we will get one in February, the models have a tendency to overdo the SE Ridge

The blast will really get here to start February or on the 1st full week of the month
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4119 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Jan 22, 2023 8:12 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Denton, TX gets 9-10 inches of 10:1 snowfall compared to 1-4 inches in DFW on the 18z GEFS, lol.


Shades of March 2008.

https://i.imgur.com/qLyiVEr.jpg

Likely that, but on a much larger scale to the north.


No, you get nothing in Tecumseh. I forbid it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4120 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 22, 2023 9:08 pm



Yeah meh... If we can't beat the inch at Christmas here that's pathetic :lol:

I guess the only good thing even if it's on the low side is at least it won't be so miserable as it was then outside
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