Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z la la land is a dream for SE Tx. Pretty intense.

[Iceresistance]

What the heck 0z NAM? I got snow slotted!

[Gotwood]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1617682197946990592?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Those snow totals can go somewhere lol at leaving DFW dry

[Gotwood]

What the heck 0z NAM? I got snow slotted!

What’s the temp at your place? Still clear skies?

[Iceresistance]

What the heck 0z NAM? I got snow slotted!

What’s the temp at your place? Still clear skies?

Now 38°F, DP still at 25°F

And yes, I just took a look outside and it's still clear

[EnnisTx]

45 here with 24 DP. Hmmm….

Did someone say wet-bulb…

[Gotwood]

What the heck 0z NAM? I got snow slotted!

What’s the temp at your place? Still clear skies?

Now 38°F, DP still at 25°F

And yes, I just took a look outside and it's still clear

You are in the driver seat prepared to get walloped.

[Ntxw]

It's not just near the surface. Most will be 32-37 during this event even in Oklahoma (locally lower in pockets.) What drives the snow is the above temps. Tonight the colder air a loft from the previous system will erode and warm above freezing. As the ULL crosses it will pull and generate colder air above. A deeper system will have better cold with it.

The areas that might have huge busts or surprises is in TX when the thunderstorms arrive. Above will have pockets of <0C 850mb temps but near surface >35F. Here a little colder surface might allow the snowflakes to survive near the ground.

[bubba hotep]

It's going to be close but I'll take a couple of hours of wrap around snow and call it a day.

[Iceresistance]

8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

[bubba hotep]

Here we go. Things are kicking off out in NM



Mesoscale Discussion 0091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Mon Jan 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 240214Z - 240615Z

SUMMARY...A broad area of mixed precipitation is developing in
eastern NM. Snowfall rates exceeding 1"/hr are possible in the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...A broadening precipitation field is developing in
eastern NM in advance of a cut-off mid-level low currently centered
over southeast AZ. This precipitation is associated with a subtle
500-mb shortwave trough propagating through the broader low,
yielding a local maxima in 700-mb frontogenesis and low-level
ascent. Surface stations at lower elevations are currently reporting
moderate rain with surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
Conditions are expected to cool during the next couple of hours
amidst broad upslope flow, yielding a gradual transition from rain
to snow. Increased low-level forcing associated with the mid-level
shortwave (and broader cut-off low) should also support a steady
increase in precipitation rates. This evolution is supported by CAM
guidance suggesting that 1"/hr snowfall rates could evolve within
the next few hours, particularly from around 03-06z.

..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/24/2023

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

[gpsnowman]

It's going to be close but I'll take a couple of hours of wrap around snow and call it a day.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023012400/026/ref1km_ptype.us_sc.png

My little northwestern part of Dallas County has been on the fringe on every map I've seen the last couple days. I can't wait to see heavy rain and maybe some flakes. Beef stew tomorrow. I'm sure no one cares but I am excited.

[Gotwood]

8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

We needed clear skies down here for a few hours after dark to get the temps down. I just don’t see snow happening in DFW now. Temps will struggle to get to 40F overnight. Make sure you post some pics of your snow for us down here.

[Iceresistance]

8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

We needed clear skies down here for a few hours after dark to get the temps down. I just don’t see snow happening in DFW now. Temps will struggle to get to 40F overnight. Make sure you post some pics of your snow for us down here.

I plan to post videos about it too!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's not just near the surface. Most will be 32-37 during this event even in Oklahoma (locally lower in pockets.) What drives the snow is the above temps. Tonight the colder air a loft from the previous system will erode and warm above freezing. As the ULL crosses it will pull and generate colder air above. A deeper system will have better cold with it.

The areas that might have huge busts or surprises is in TX when the thunderstorms arrive. Above will have pockets of <0C 850mb temps but near surface >35F. Here a little colder surface might allow the snowflakes to survive near the ground.

https://i.imgur.com/WZupJu5.%20gif

Was just looking at where the 850 low will track. Good luck to all in the storm tomorrow, stay safe!

[Iceresistance]

Took another look, mostly clear, feeling colder than the previous observation.

36°F with a DP of 25.7°F

[Cpv17]

Looks like a pretty significant severe weather event for my area tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like a pretty significant severe weather event for my area tomorrow.

Yeah your area has a significant severe threat tomorrow. The coastal region could get hammered by strong winds. Stay safe.

[TropicalTundra]

8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

We needed clear skies down here for a few hours after dark to get the temps down. I just don’t see snow happening in DFW now. Temps will struggle to get to 40F overnight. Make sure you post some pics of your snow for us down here.

I don’t think it’s impossible for temps to drop even with nightly cloud cover. They should still fall just not nearly as fast as without it. As long as there isn’t a lot of gulf moisture and warmth they’ll still definitely fall.

[Iceresistance]

8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

We needed clear skies down here for a few hours after dark to get the temps down. I just don’t see snow happening in DFW now. Temps will struggle to get to 40F overnight. Make sure you post some pics of your snow for us down here.

I don’t think it’s impossible for temps to drop even with nightly cloud cover. They should still fall just not nearly as fast as without it. As long as there isn’t a lot of gulf moisture and warmth they’ll still definitely fall.

The temperature just increased back up to 37°F , it could be a brief warm flux. (Not a Heat Burst as there are no Thunderstorms)