Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Quixotic
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4261 Postby Quixotic » Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:59 pm

EnnisTx wrote:
Quixotic wrote:45 here with 24 DP. Hmmm….


Did someone say wet-bulb…


I’m dreaming of course but never say never. I’d be happy to see monster flakes with lightning even as they splatter on the warm pavement. The March 08 event was much warmer and some folks lucked out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4262 Postby Quixotic » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:00 pm

bubba hotep wrote:It's going to be close but I'll take a couple of hours of wrap around snow and call it a day.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023012400/026/ref1km_ptype.us_sc.png


Any time they say “red River counties” I want to include Denton and Collin.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4263 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:04 pm

I feel like someone around here is gonna get absolutely buried
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4264 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:06 pm

Brent wrote:I feel like someone around here is gonna get absolutely buried

KFOR has 10 inches for my area, lol
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4265 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:17 pm

Uhhhh, why did the temperature jump from 36°F to 40°F in just 40 minutes?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4266 Postby Quixotic » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:18 pm

Brent wrote:I feel like someone around here is gonna get absolutely buried

Yes. High ceiling. Low floor.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4267 Postby Gotwood » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:24 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:8:25 PM

36°F
DP of 26°F

Wind is East at 5 mph, wind chill is 31.5°F

Observation from OK Mesonet of Shawnee
LINK for the Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/local/shaw

We needed clear skies down here for a few hours after dark to get the temps down. I just don’t see snow happening in DFW now. Temps will struggle to get to 40F overnight. Make sure you post some pics of your snow for us down here.


I don’t think it’s impossible for temps to drop even with nightly cloud cover. They should still fall just not nearly as fast as without it. As long as there isn’t a lot of gulf moisture and warmth they’ll still definitely fall.

I agree that temps will still fall however, In this case to receive any measurable snow we needed some overnight cooling. It is currently 48 degrees at my house in SW Parker county. It’s dropped about two degrees since sun down.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4268 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:39 pm

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4269 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:41 pm




What is it? I can't see it
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4270 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:43 pm

The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4271 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:44 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.


Literally every model has snow for you. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4272 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:50 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.


Literally every model has snow for you. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you.

I really don’t care either way. From the beginning I’ve felt it was going to be too warm, with it getting cloudy this afternoon and the temp holding steady in the mid 40s tonight; I’m not expecting much so anything other than rain will be a nice touch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4273 Postby SnowintheFalls » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:53 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.


Where did you see that?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4274 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:58 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.


Where did you see that?

Aside from a mix tomorrow night, Tuesday has changed to just rain.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4275 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:04 pm

I'm now stuck at 40°F, DP has refused to budge at 26°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4276 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:05 pm

0z GFS by this weekend here comes the Arctic air into the US.

This is not la-la land and how quickly it has escalated. 1061mb high.



Image

Image
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4277 Postby Gotwood » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:0z GFS by this weekend here comes the Arctic air into the US.

This is not la-la land and how quickly it has escalated. 1061mb high.



https://i.imgur.com/Z9IjuM7.png

https://i.imgur.com/AgjIbdj.png

I have a good feeling about this one
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4278 Postby TropicalTundra » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:17 pm

Is there cooler air being funneled in? I see already freezing temps in northern OK + southern Kansas and near Red River temps are still mid 40s. Any possible pressures pushing colder air south?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4279 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:22 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Is there cooler air being funneled in? I see already freezing temps in northern OK + southern Kansas and near Red River temps are still mid 40s. Any possible pressures pushing colder air south?

The freezing line is also in Eastern Oklahoma.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4280 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:The NWS latest forecast changed us to 100% chance of rain tomorrow after having numerous inches of snow in the forecast for a couple of days now.


Literally every model has snow for you. I wouldn't worry about it if I were you.


I was going to say even the model they just showed on TV here had plenty of snow down there

But there clearly has been a north shift in the heavier snow. Far more hype here on TV than it was last night
Last edited by Brent on Mon Jan 23, 2023 11:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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