Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Brent]

This has to be the one of the worst busts I've ever seen here I mean literally the ground isn't even white

Can't wait for all the people who don't trust the meteorologists to be out

[Ntxw]

This has to be the one of the worst busts I've ever seen here I mean literally the ground isn't even white

Can't wait for all the people who don't trust the meteorologists to be out

I think it's a bust if one didn't objectively look at the tools. Aside from pretty maps, interpretation errors from the sites themselves, the flags were there. No area was much below freezing nor cold air source and the model temp profiles showed us. It's very hard to get accumulating snow above 33F in any significant amounts. Marginal set up and for a lucky few.

[Quixotic]

This has to be the one of the worst busts I've ever seen here I mean literally the ground isn't even white

Can't wait for all the people who don't trust the meteorologists to be out

Not going to go back and dig it up but I did warn people this was one that had bust written on it.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

[losf1981]

This has to be the one of the worst busts I've ever seen here I mean literally the ground isn't even white

Can't wait for all the people who don't trust the meteorologists to be out

It was pretty to watch the snow fall all afternoon and well into the evening but very minimal accumulation in WF. Little bit on the grass and a little on the roofs. If temps had been below freezing it would have been a pretty nice little winter event

[DonWrk]

First accumulating snow above 32° I’ve seen in a long time. Bet we had right around 2”.

[gpsnowman]

First accumulating snow above 32° I’ve seen in a long time. Bet we had right around 2”.

I think I had about 15 minutes of light snow before the precip exited all together. On to next week, minus any severe tornado outbreaks.

[Gotwood]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

I have a good feeling about the next couple weeks.

[Ntxw]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

I have a good feeling about the next couple weeks.

There is a lot of things going on. Ice, snow, sleet, hard freezes, you name it and Feb got it.

[orangeblood]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

FW NWS office is setting themselves up for big bust potential early next week (20F plus type bust)...they have highs in the upper 50s on Tuesday, what are they looking at ? GFS hugging ? The HP coming down is Arctic Origin with cross polar directly down into the plains, we all know SW flow isn't stopping this type of dense airmass. Decent chance highs are in low 30s with frozen precip while that office has upper 50s and rain

[CaptinCrunch]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

[orangeblood]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

Well IMHO, need to at least discuss these things so the Public can prepare for the potential ahead of time...could happen as early as Monday morning

[DonWrk]

First accumulating snow above 32° I’ve seen in a long time. Bet we had right around 2”.

I think I had about 15 minutes of light snow before the precip exited all together. On to next week, minus any severe tornado outbreaks.

Had a good 3 hours of some heavy snow here so definitely got somewhat of a fix from it lol. Very lovely to see.

[rwfromkansas]

Um, no thanks on a week-long ice fest. I got yearbook deadlines. Snow, yes, or all for or a little sleet that will melt the next day.

Last night I only had maybe 20 minutes of very light snow. It was not what it looked like on radar. Radar appeared much heavier than it was. But it was better than nothing...beggars can't be choosers, I guess.

[txtwister78]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

Good point. It's a balance for now. Models are definitely showing signals (pattern recognition) that would suggest arctic air bleeds into TX early next week and then perhaps overwhelms as these systems come out. On the other hand, this is still shallow arctic air and with a stout SE ridge pumping that warm air in there is going to be a fight initially. Interesting week ahead no question.

[Cpv17]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

Good point. It's a balance for now. Models are definitely showing signals (pattern recognition) that would suggest arctic air bleeds into TX early next week and then perhaps overwhelms as these systems come out. On the other hand, this is still shallow arctic air and with a stout SE ridge pumping that warm air in there is going to be a fight initially. Interesting week ahead no question.

Why is the air supposed to be so shallow?

[rwfromkansas]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

Good point. It's a balance for now. Models are definitely showing signals (pattern recognition) that would suggest arctic air bleeds into TX early next week and then perhaps overwhelms as these systems come out. On the other hand, this is still shallow arctic air and with a stout SE ridge pumping that warm air in there is going to be a fight initially. Interesting week ahead no question.

Why is the air supposed to be so shallow?

I think initially, it is supposed to be due to the ridge, but with a strong HP, it should get deeper.

[rwfromkansas]

Fascinating post by Larry Cosgrove on the moderating influence of the Gulf and how he sees this playing out:

"If you live in the southern and eastern parts of the U.S., usually you need a strong winter storm to bring in Arctic air.
In 46 years of weather forecasting, I have found the above statement to be one of the truisms when looking out for negative temperature extremes. And it is easy to see why. With a water source nearby that moderates polar and Arctic regimes, a force is needed to scour out milder air masses in the boundary layer. That would be an intense lower-to-mid-latitude cyclone.
I could cite many examples in history; March 1993 and February 2021 are two that stand out in memory. Applied to the currently evolving cAk domain edging out of Canada, the system that brought tornadoes and flooding rains to the Houston TXC metro, and ice/snow to the Ozark Plateau was impressive but not strong enough to "do the job". But there are other candidate disturbances we will need to monitor in coming days which could drag down the cold motherlode enough to push the nocturnal freeze line into Mexico.
The first two impulses (see them in the subtropical jet stream over the Pacific Basin) may provide some more inclement weather to TX, the Deep South and the Mid-Atlantic between January 28 and February 1. But another in the sequence, combining with energy that undercuts the strong Alaskan blocking ridge (another input in delivering the coldest readings) may move from the central Gulf of Mexico and along the East Coast by February 4. As can be seen by the attached Day 10 model prediction, that could be the "cross-court three-pointer" that returns the reality of winter far more than the recent temperature drop."

[Ntxw]

500mb upper flow this morning. Very good Pacific, Arctic high building north of Alaska. TPV descending towards Hudson Bay.

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

I told my HS that this is only the beginning of what is eventually going to come to start February, and February may not have just one severe arctic blast, there could be another one to end the month as well!