Texas Winter 2022-2023

[cajungal]

Bring it to SE Louisiana. Texas had been getting all the winter weather fun

[Ntxw]

6z GFS has snow with ULL and cold air next week. Interesting week coming.

I told my HS that this is only the beginning of what is eventually going to come to start February, and February may not have just one severe arctic blast, there could be another one to end the month as well!

The long range ENs generally keep an elevated ridge-y NE Pacific poking into Alaska through Feb. Aleutians ridge that kept trying to popup is being skewed at longer ranges due to blends. It's verifying differently with more towards the Gulf of Alaska. In other words we're ending up with more poleward Aleutians ridge rather than flat.

[txtwister78]

It's only Wednesday, and NWS offices won't start talking about any possibilities of winter wx for next week until this weekend. They are going to need consistent models inside 120 hrs before making any call as to a winter event across NTX

Good point. It's a balance for now. Models are definitely showing signals (pattern recognition) that would suggest arctic air bleeds into TX early next week and then perhaps overwhelms as these systems come out. On the other hand, this is still shallow arctic air and with a stout SE ridge pumping that warm air in there is going to be a fight initially. Interesting week ahead no question.

Why is the air supposed to be so shallow?

SE ridge will have an impact. Setup favors a layer of warm air above the surface and often leads to overrunning events that bring ice as opposed to snow. Put a strong enough ridge in place and you can erode some of that cold air initially until systems come along and help to suppress the ridge which allows for that arctic air to move further south. Eventually the arctic air wins out (step down effect).

[rwfromkansas]

500mb upper flow this morning. Very good Pacific, Arctic high building north of Alaska. TPV descending towards Hudson Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/zg2ajWc.gif

https://i.imgur.com/K7U7EHO.gif

Those University of Wyoming charts are nice. Bookmarked their site now. I like that it's not cluttered and you really get the feel for what the pattern looks like. It's more clear than some others.

[Ntxw]

12z ICON the system we'll all be watching is coming down the PAC NW Sat/Sun this weekend. This system should have a strong HP and cold air source with it.

[Cpv17]

Bring it to SE Louisiana. Texas had been getting all the winter weather fun

Where at in Texas?

[cajungal]

Bring it to SE Louisiana. Texas had been getting all the winter weather fun

Where at in Texas?

Well not Houston for sure. But was jealous of my cousin in North Dallas getting some yesterday

[Ntxw]

12z GFS digs into the Baja so definitely further south system than this past one. 12z CMC is overrunning event.

[Ntxw]

2ft of snow in west Texas on the GFS, a little for north TX as the air modifies on this run.

[rwfromkansas]

2ft of snow in west Texas on the GFS, a little for north TX as the air modifies on this run.

Heck, if that happened, I would be on a road trip back to West TX. Lol.

[Ntxw]

2ft of snow in west Texas on the GFS, a little for north TX as the air modifies on this run.

Heck, if that happened, I would be on a road trip back to West TX. Lol.

It's always good to have the snow shield start in the trans-pecos region, we do good in that rather than Amarillo-Lubbock.

Regardless within 5 day frame all the models agree a potential system is coming currently spinning in Western Alaska. How well it times up with the HP and cold is still to be seen. Also SW flow will bring waves of disturbances likely not seen on qpf yet.

[Texas Snow]

Back to the WHY the NWS in DFW isn't mentioning anything, its because they don't believe it will be that cold.

"Although the postfrontal air mass will be arctic in origin,
generally zonal flow across the CONUS will prevent the coldest air
from invading the Southern Plains. Nevertheless, below normal
daytime temperatures will prevail through the end of January. An
unseasonably strong subtropical high will be anchored over the
southeastern Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This will
block the flow upstream, keeping troughing in the Southwest and
unsettled southwesterly flow above the Lone Star State. The
considerable cloudiness that will result will enhance the
potential for below normal daytime temperatures while maintaining
rain chances."

[orangeblood]

Back to the WHY the NWS in DFW isn't mentioning anything, its because they don't believe it will be that cold.

"Although the postfrontal air mass will be arctic in origin,
generally zonal flow across the CONUS will prevent the coldest air
from invading the Southern Plains. Nevertheless, below normal
daytime temperatures will prevail through the end of January. An
unseasonably strong subtropical high will be anchored over the
southeastern Gulf and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This will
block the flow upstream, keeping troughing in the Southwest and
unsettled southwesterly flow above the Lone Star State. The
considerable cloudiness that will result will enhance the
potential for below normal daytime temperatures while maintaining
rain chances."

This is the perplexing part...its been well documented on this site for over a decade plus of winter seasons that the dense cold usually wins out in these setups regardless of 500mb zonal flow across southern US. When continuous cross polar flow and a 1060 HP in Yukon comes down (with reloading HPs behind it), it is very difficult to dislodge once it makes it into the central plains!

I guess its a Storm2k vs. NWS show down...any wagers on who wins this forecast matchup ?

[orangeblood]

Latest CMC frz rain forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday next week



And now strong winter weather signal from latest GFS ENS suite

[Cerlin]

Well, to recap, I think my apartment got about 3 inches of consistent snow accumulations (likely would’ve been 6-8 if we were at 30 degrees) and it snowed fat flakes from 11 am until 11 pm. Still about 2 inches on the ground here and it’s only 35 degrees so it might take a while to fully melt everything down. About as good of a snow event as you can hope for above 33 degrees. My family down in Frisco had some light dusting and got a welcome surprise! I’m hoping that the next system is a lot colder up here and a lot more snow producing for Texas—y’all all deserve to have a snow day.

[txtwister78]

Coldest run of the GEFS into TX. CMC ENS similar for that timeframe as well.

[harp]

That damned SE Ridge prevents it from fully getting to Louisiana!!

[Iceresistance]

That d****d SE Ridge prevents it from fully getting to Louisiana!!

You can call it "The Anti-Winter Cockroach Ridge" when it does something like that in the models and when it truly comes.

[orangeblood]

Coldest run of the GEFS into TX. CMC ENS similar for that timeframe as well.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674648000/1675296000-J7FPj7LGGZc.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/conus/t2m_c_anom/1674648000/1675317600-kNKLDudtR3M.png

Likely the coldest stretch of winter coming up next week (and typically is)...7 day anomalies approaching 10-20 Deg F below normal. That's significant for any Texas winter season

[cajungal]

That damned SE Ridge prevents it from fully getting to Louisiana!!

I know.