Texas Winter 2022-2023

[BigB0882]

I’ve been worried about that dang ridge. Maybe the cold will just overwhelm it?

[Ntxw]

Clouds hanging around longer than expected. DFW and surrounding areas are hovering around 40F-42F from a forecast near 50F. Quite a chilly day, I remember 85F has if it were yesterday.

[Iceresistance]

Clouds hanging around longer than expected. DFW and surrounding areas are hovering around 40F-42F from a forecast near 50F. Quite a chilly day, I remember 85F has if it were yesterday.

This could lead to a nasty cold night, at least for me.

If the snow in my area does not fully melt away from the roads, then they could get really icy and school would be forced to stay out for the 3rd day.

[FloppaHorn]

Holy cow! I finally get to post on here!

I've been a reader for years. I've gone through the registration process a few times, but never received the email to actually join the site. All good. I just accidentally logged in because my son's username (FloppaHorn) populated automatically. I don't have the expertise that most of y'all do, so I'll just continue to read and post occasional local observations from the Rowlett area.

The point of the post was to thank everyone on here. I grew up wanting to be a meteorologist, but my path went elsewhere. I'm a teacher now. I've learned so much on here over the years. I've lived through the "ups" and mostly "downs" of each long-term forecast. Thanks again and please get us some snow.

[Brent]

Can we not have a warm layer for the next threat

[txtwister78]

Holy cow! I finally get to post on here!

I've been a reader for years. I've gone through the registration process a few times, but never received the email to actually join the site. All good. I just accidentally logged in because my son's username (FloppaHorn) populated automatically. I don't have the expertise that most of y'all do, so I'll just continue to read and post occasional local observations from the Rowlett area.

The point of the post was to thank everyone on here. I grew up wanting to be a meteorologist, but my path went elsewhere. I'm a teacher now. I've learned so much on here over the years. I've lived through the "ups" and mostly "downs" of each long-term forecast. Thanks again and please get us some snow.

Welcome aboard!

[Ntxw]

Can we not have a warm layer for the next threat

Yes. But the next threat might miss you completely to the south. Euro control builds the snow-bands south of I-40 and really south of the Red River .

Who knows though, chilly stretch coming.

[Brent]

Can we not have a warm layer for the next threat

Yes. But the next threat might miss you completely to the south. Euro control builds the snow-bands south of I-40 and really south of the Red River .

Who knows though, chilly stretch coming.

I just thought for sure at least even worst case scenario an inch or two. I saw absolutely nothing accumulated here

[losf1981]

Can we not have a warm layer for the next threat

Yes. But the next threat might miss you completely to the south. Euro control builds the snow-bands south of I-40 and really south of the Red River .

Who knows though, chilly stretch coming.

like how far south??

[Portastorm]

Holy cow! I finally get to post on here!

I've been a reader for years. I've gone through the registration process a few times, but never received the email to actually join the site. All good. I just accidentally logged in because my son's username (FloppaHorn) populated automatically. I don't have the expertise that most of y'all do, so I'll just continue to read and post occasional local observations from the Rowlett area.

The point of the post was to thank everyone on here. I grew up wanting to be a meteorologist, but my path went elsewhere. I'm a teacher now. I've learned so much on here over the years. I've lived through the "ups" and mostly "downs" of each long-term forecast. Thanks again and please get us some snow.

Welcome, welcome!

When I think of Rowlett, Texas, my mind immediately goes to video I saw from the Christmas tornado in 2015. Hoping for something more fun in the weather department for you my friend. Like snow!

[cstrunk]

That damned SE Ridge prevents it from fully getting to Louisiana!!

I feel ya - even from up here in Longview, TX. Same issue.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Been absent more than normal for this time of year. I'm headed to Colorado to carve up some mountains, but wanted to drop in and say that I REALLY REALLY like the look of February for most of the month in Texas.

It looks active and chilly with all forms of precip on the menu given the coming pattern.

I'm not as concerned about the SE ridge as some of you, and the ensembles really aren't either. If the ridge tries to flex, it will be a slower step down process and that's okay because it will lay a lot of snow down to our north. Quicker, sharper shots tend to waste cold for us and they are usually accompanied by a lack of precip.

[Iceresistance]

Happy Hour GFS . . . Isn't.

[txtwister78]

18z ICON showing how this can evolve. 18z trending colder with arctic air into TX on Monday with a system swinging out of the SW for mid-week. Trouble brewing? 0z might be interesting.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Latest CMC frz rain forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/scentus/frzr_total/1674648000/1675328400-4JKDpGui7MM.png

And now strong winter weather signal from latest GFS ENS suite
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1674648000/1675166400-bMjhSarvz0c.png

Looks like a near miss for Bexar County…don’t know if I should be happy or upset about that…

[txtwister78]

Been absent more than normal for this time of year. I'm headed to Colorado to carve up some mountains, but wanted to drop in and say that I REALLY REALLY like the look of February for most of the month in Texas.

It looks active and chilly with all forms of precip on the menu given the coming pattern.

I'm not as concerned about the SE ridge as some of you, and the ensembles really aren't either. If the ridge tries to flex, it will be a slower step down process and that's okay because it will lay a lot of snow down to our north. Quicker, sharper shots tend to waste cold for us and they are usually accompanied by a lack of precip.

Don't know about all of Feb (jury still out I think on that) as there is some major disagreement with the MJO forecast/progression between the Euro and GFS but hopefully we can cash in with this upcoming pattern.

[txtwister78]

Latest CMC frz rain forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday next week

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/scentus/frzr_total/1674648000/1675328400-4JKDpGui7MM.png

And now strong winter weather signal from latest GFS ENS suite
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/scentus/precip_6hr_ptype_multimember_panel/1674648000/1675166400-bMjhSarvz0c.png

Looks like a near miss for Bexar County…don’t know if I should be happy or upset about that…

Way too early to tell. Still a few days before the depth of all this gets ironed out.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/nwshouston/status/1618362335726571521

[Cpv17]

Boy, the GFS is looking good for precip! Hope there will be some cold air to work with & hopefully the Euro will join GFS precip party. Ensembles on both models look about the same, though. So maybe the op GFS is overdoing it.

[WinterMax]

That damned SE Ridge prevents it from fully getting to Louisiana!!

Yep Harp, the step down cold they talk about is fine for north Texas, but central Louisiana and southeast Louisiana can’t necessarily count on step down cold, we need the cold and the precipitation. It’s probably why you and I hang on operational, we know it will take a cold intrusion into the gulf in most cases to have the potential for winter precipitation.


It’s tough on some of us lol