Texas Winter 2022-2023

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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4581 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:24 am

Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The models have a bad tendency of eroding the cold quicker than expected, the Shallow Cold Air will be horribly underestimated by the models as it ignores the upper level patterns.


That's true. I guess I just thought the ensembles might pick it up better, but if very shallow it may miss it as well. But, that definitely means ice storm potential, which...ugh. No good.

12z ICON has temperatures between 17°F and 24°F and it's Sleet and Ice, yikes!


Ugh, what a nightmare of a skating rink. If it's 32 and freezing rain it at least won't accumulate much.
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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4582 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:25 am

2 month natural gas price freefall in progress certainly doesn't seem to be bothered by the models and or draws in current storage.

Wonder if traders will be caught off guard by a quick move up next week? ThunderSleet Dreams, what are your trader buddies saying?!? :cold:
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4583 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:25 am

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:
That's true. I guess I just thought the ensembles might pick it up better, but if very shallow it may miss it as well. But, that definitely means ice storm potential, which...ugh. No good.

12z ICON has temperatures between 17°F and 24°F and it's Sleet and Ice, yikes!


Ugh, what a nightmare of a skating rink. If it's 32 and freezing rain it at least won't accumulate much.

I'd rather have snow over Sleet and Ice! I hope the models simply overestimate the warm nose.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4584 Postby harp » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:39 am

Looks like the cold air gets dammed up and doesn’t make it to Louisiana until later.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4585 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:42 am

Fascinating potential setting up for next week...

1st Arctic HP comes thru late this weekend and sets up shop in the southern plains thru Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This sets up a long duration overrunning Frz Rain/Sleet time event with the initial front. Then just as the cold dome finally gets eroded enough to bring temps higher, another secondary/reinforcing fresh Arctic HP comes down mid-week. Just in time for the ULL to eject out of the desert Southwest, bringing more upper level cold for more of a snow/sleet combo than frz rain. Really interesting week upcoming!!

1st Arctic HP
Image

2nd Reinforcing Arctic HP midwek
Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4586 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:42 am

CMC still running very cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4587 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:44 am

Woah!!! :double:

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4588 Postby funster » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:50 am

That would make a mess of things. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4589 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:52 am


Model trying to shut the grid down lol. Power lines would be popping everywhere.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4590 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 11:55 am


I'm not even sure if I want to like this or not . . .
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4591 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:00 pm


We had an ice storm around the same time frame last year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4592 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:00 pm

Please let it be sleet.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4593 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:02 pm

Gotwood wrote:

We had an ice storm around the same time frame last year.

Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4594 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:08 pm

This is from KFOR

The "213" is an error, they tried to do "21"

Image
https://s3.gifyu.com/images/7day.jpg
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Gotwood
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4595 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:10 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Gotwood wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I'm not even sure if I want to like this or not . . .

We had an ice storm around the same time frame last year.

Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?

Yeah 21 ruined everything. Last year we had a legitimate ice storm around the 3rd of February.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4596 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:10 pm

12z GFS isn't too enthused about the winter weather topic for North Texas.
Last edited by bubba hotep on Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4597 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:11 pm

GFS ENS members backing CMC, it's Operational is outlier...wave after wave of overruning precip over cold dome. 1st wave beginning Monday. Confidence increasing!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4598 Postby jaguars_22 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:13 pm

So if it’s shallower could this mean the freezing line gets pushed further south in Texas and not stop at the hill country? Most of the ice mess looks north of Victoria..
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4599 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:13 pm

bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS isn't too enthused about the winter weather topic.


Yet
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#4600 Postby gboudx » Thu Jan 26, 2023 12:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Was it in February 2021 when there was Freezing drizzle that cause a huge mess?


Yeah, in Ft Worth it caused a massive pile-up of vehicles, including fatalities.

There was another big ice storm I remember, I think it was December 2013 or early Jan 2014. I remember it was around Christmas because our decorations were out and covered in ice. I took some really cool pics from the open land near our house. That was the infamous "cobblestone ice" on I-35 storm.
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