Texas Winter 2022-2023
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Why won’t this make it to Louisiana?orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
That run also reverses a warming trend that occurred across the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs.
check out the short range RGEM, even colder
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/rgem-all/tx/t2m_f/1674842400/1675144800-oURQyPUrUgc.png
Some of it will however placement/delivery of the arctic airmass matters along with in this particular case the SE ridge dominating that region. Arctic air will more than likely slowly bleed east into parts of Louisiana as it spreads out and modifies up against the ridge. It just takes a little more time to do under this setup.
Another factor that often delays arctic air from SE TX into parts of Louisiana is the mountain range (Quachita) up in Arkansas that act as a temporary dam. This is why you see the coldest air drain down into central and southern TX first (depending on the strength of the arctic HP) before spreading into your region.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Fri Jan 27, 2023 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Yeah not liking the NAM trend of more ice. May mess up plans next week I had for classes.
I may have to move things to Monday just in case.
A light glaze to .15 or so isn’t too bad. But don’t want a heavy accretion.
I may have to move things to Monday just in case.
A light glaze to .15 or so isn’t too bad. But don’t want a heavy accretion.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.
Winter is coming
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- Iceresistance
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Gotwood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.
Winter is coming
Yeah, it’s definitely going to be cold up there in Dallas and all of north Texas next week. Question I have is how far that cold can make it south. Local forecasts here in the Houston area have 50’s and 60’s for highs next week lol hardly cold at all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Gotwood wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Y’all should watch the Wednesday-Friday timeframe up there in Dallas for a possible snow event. Wouldn’t rule it out.
Winter is coming
Yeah, it’s definitely going to be cold up there in Dallas and all of north Texas next week. Question I have is how far that cold can make it south. Local forecasts here in the Houston area have 50’s and 60’s for highs next week lol hardly cold at all.
I feel your pain. SE ridge arch nemesis is -AO and -NAO (west based) that's how cold is really driven to Mexico and the gulf. Ridging in Eastern/Atlantic Canada crushes the SE ridge. Numerous times in other years the cold is hung up on Kansas/Oklahoma because eastern Canada is easy path.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Gotwood wrote:If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.
Why?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Gotwood wrote:If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.
No question, it’s now 6-7 F warmer than its Ensemble Mean now…which is trending colder toward CMC
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- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Gotwood wrote:If you haven’t done so already just throw out the GFS OP.
Why?
It's horribly underestimating the Shallow Arctic Air.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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- Location: Collin County Texas
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnhEJL1agAAL5xQ?format=jpg&name=small
What is it? I can't see it
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
If the trends go colder and faster probably a product of the high showing up over the land now.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- SnowintheFalls
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- Location: Burkburnett, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!
Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.
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There is no day like a snow day!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
SnowintheFalls wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!
Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.
It is on TT in the Mesoscale section on the models, it's near the bottom of the selection.
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5610
- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Pete Delkus
@wfaaweather
·
1m
Next week: Most of North Texas will see just a cold rain. Areas mainly northwest of the metroplex could see some freezing rain Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads in those areas before temps go above freezing during the afternoon. #wfaaweather
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- SnowintheFalls
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- Location: Burkburnett, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:SnowintheFalls wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Good lord, I got SLEETED by the 18z RGEM!
Where can you see the RGEM? I didn't see it on TT.
It is on TT in the Mesoscale section on the models, it's near the bottom of the selection.
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2023-01-27-6.09.14-PM.png
Found it, thanks!
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There is no day like a snow day!
- CaptinCrunch
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- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:Pete Delkus
@wfaaweather
·
1m
Next week: Most of North Texas will see just a cold rain. Areas mainly northwest of the metroplex could see some freezing rain Tuesday and Wednesday morning. This could lead to slick roads in those areas before temps go above freezing during the afternoon. #wfaaweather
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FnhL_WIWAAALloc?format=jpg&name=small
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