Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
We don't need to do much guessing anymore. Frontogenesis will happen today in the northern plains as height rises. Cold front will come through tomorrow but will be gradual behind it.
Driving mechanism at the surface is here.
Driving mechanism at the surface is here.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS says, "There might be a wee chance" (This is later in the week and not the potential freezing drizzle event)
https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2023012812/168/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png
Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png
For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?
Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion
Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png
For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?
Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion
Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue
Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The NBM is pretty consistent showing light icing of .05 to .10 so not sure why FWD is ignoring their beloved NBM. I signed up for a free trial of Pivotal Weather Plus so I can see it. Abilene is the worst location with a bigger ice event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Canadian on board and has been leading from 1st tee box…consistency heavily favored in setups like this
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/total_snow_10to1/1674907200/1675501200-4DryqL9twZY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1674907200/1675501200-MhxPWRiwvQU.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/sleet_total/1674907200/1675501200-w2LNg18z25g.png
For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?
Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion
Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue
Ensemble forecasting has improved greatly and I think in cold blasts like this, the not to be named OPs here should be treated as such, as ensemble members until they prove they have changed. NWS and NOAA likes the statistical approach and probability, which favors the ensembles.
7-10 days out I already mentioned this was going to be a problem, could see it from a mile away and it has done just that so far.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnkz2LDXoAAaEoW?format=jpg&name=small
While I agree it's not the most favorable, it's not the most unfavorable either. True zonal flow that locks up cold sees a trough/ULL over or just off the Pac NW if you go back and look at those patterns. Now that mixes the Pacific air and really holds it up. This is a little more progressive which does leave an opening.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
At least Evan Andrews just said while it looks to be rain it’s too close to call as it’s just Saturday. So leaving room for colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
For the high on Tuesday, FWD is pretty close to the GFS/Euro. The 12k NAM has DFW below freezing and the CMC is in the twenties. Who is going to bust - FWD/Euro/GFS or CMC/12kNAM?
Truly perplexed why this office would side with the globals in a setup like this. The globals make the same errors every winter, is there a big turnover at the FW NWS office or something ? local climate experience is a valuable tool when forecasting, why isn’t it being used ? Even more frustrating are the discrepancies weren’t even mentioned in their discussion
Frozen precip isn’t even in the DFW forecast and we’re less than 60 hrs from a potentially significant event. Have friends/family that have no clue
Delkus isn't buying in. I've mentioned a couple of times that there are some upper-level features that aren't favorable for a lot of bitter cold getting deep into Texas, even at the low levels. We'll find out soon enough lol
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fnkz2LDXoAAaEoW?format=jpg&name=small
Haha yes we will! I think your trough orientation point is valid and needs to be considered but have noticed over the years, once this type of Siberian air is dropped off in southern plains it’s very difficult to dislodge when you still have lowering heights coming in from the west regardless of orientation. It creates a magnet of sort for low level cold. However, it’s quickly eroded once new heights build in from that direction
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Consistency as another topic. If you want discuss consistency look at the 0z from mid week to now for Tues 18z. CMC has been so consistent, ICON consider consistent as well.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Consistency as another topic. If you want discuss consistency look at the 0z from mid week to now for Tues 18z. CMC has been so consistent, ICON consider consistent as well.
https://i.imgur.com/raEg22Z.png
https://i.imgur.com/HOGVMVn.png
https://i.imgur.com/0f9eeOA.png
https://i.imgur.com/nkUu0Jb.png
Yep, has to weigh heavily in a forecast unless the setup is a known weakness. From 60 hrs out, Latest Euro and GFS are 10-14 F warmer than CMC/Short Range models…local Mets better be very careful with these forecasts
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
12z Euro is juiced up but keeps most of the ice and snow in West Texas.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Pete Delkus just posted on FB and seems to be waffling toward a colder, possibly icier forecast… he changes his mind often it seems. Tough forecast.
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Tammie - Sherman TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
It looks like Pete Delkus might be coming around.
Apologies for not knowing how to attach a photo. My first post.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=751729202975929&set=a.341930167289170&type=3&mibextid=5zvaxg
Apologies for not knowing how to attach a photo. My first post.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=751729202975929&set=a.341930167289170&type=3&mibextid=5zvaxg
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
WXSnowman wrote:It looks like Pete Delkus might be coming around.
Apologies for not knowing how to attach a photo. My first post.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=751729202975929&set=a.341930167289170&type=3&mibextid=5zvaxg
Welcome to the team!
You can attach photos with the "[img}" and"{/img]" (They're both brackets), but this one does not work for now . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
He has Twitter, which is a good thing
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619367211889565701
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619398683153293312
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619367211889565701
https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1619398683153293312
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Tammie wrote:Pete Delkus just posted on FB and seems to be waffling toward a colder, possibly icier forecast… he changes his mind often it seems. Tough forecast.
He does after I post on his comments
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- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
You can see as we get closer to the frontal passage, the NAM is trending colder faster further south as it continues to get a better handle on the shallow arctic airmass and its progression into TX.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Freezing rain much further south as a result of the colder trend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
This is a tricky situation. If it’s too light yet cold we may repeat 2021 with patchy ice. I recall going to school that day worrying and yet not a bit of ice in my area. Just south that awful crash.
But, if it’s ice to me the sweet spot is .10-25. Enough to be dangerous and close things but not take down lots of infrastructure.
A little ice is IMO better than patchy stuff after 2021. But, not a major ice storm.
But, if it’s ice to me the sweet spot is .10-25. Enough to be dangerous and close things but not take down lots of infrastructure.
A little ice is IMO better than patchy stuff after 2021. But, not a major ice storm.
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