Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

As long as we adhere to the forum rules, we’re fine. If this can’t be a place for honest dialogue … and we will disagree from time to time … then why bother? Right?!

We can agree to disagree. I know we have a lot of weather to discuss so I don’t want to hijack the thread.

Lol no doubt! Yep, now back to our regularly scheduled Amateur forecast discussions…

[Iceresistance]

If anything we need to criticize the OP GFS and Euro. That's the issue at hand! Einstein says “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” You just can't trust em in these set ups! 37F at DFW airport now and those OPs from YESTERDAY should be 47F+.

The Shallow Arctic Air setups are very difficult to spot even if it is a couple of days out, the CMC did amazing for catching it a few days ago and stayed consistent despite the cold bias!

Maybe that the cold bias the Canadian has is offset by the accuracy for catching shallow arctic air?

[Ntxw]

Feb 7th-10th needs to be watched still for a system and some cold from the north. There are some ensemble members with support.

[Ntxw]

If anything we need to criticize the OP GFS and Euro. That's the issue at hand! Einstein says “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” You just can't trust em in these set ups! 37F at DFW airport now and those OPs from YESTERDAY should be 47F+.

The Shallow Arctic Air setups are very difficult to spot even if it is a couple of days out, the CMC did amazing for catching it a few days ago and stayed consistent despite the cold bias!

Maybe that the cold bias the Canadian has is offset by the accuracy for catching shallow arctic air?

It could be. Sometimes simple is the key. Cold moves from point A to point B regardless of what the upper flow says. Doesn't follow the complex rules. This happens to the east of the Appalachians as well but on a smaller scale. Cold air damming is a problem and is unique to certain areas of the world with N/S mountains, you have diverging flows above and below. One set of guidance puts too much emphasis on flow above while the other too much below. Sometimes below wins.

[rwfromkansas]

Temp still dropping. Down to 35.8 IMBY. No strong wind helping but it’s slowly getting colder.

[Ntxw]

Temp still dropping. Down to 35.8 IMBY. No strong wind helping but it’s slowly getting colder.

Even the Canadian is busting from yesterday's 12z run for this morning.

[orangeblood]

Precip gradient is pretty clear on the Ensembles with heaviest axis coinciding with sub-freezing temps is directly thru Metroplex. IMO Closest comparison is Dec 2013 Ice Storm
Grocery prep now!

QPF thru Wednesday Noon

[txtwister78]

If anything, I think there is a balance that exists to what I feel at times should be constructive feedback (post event) and not necessarily a rush to judge before the event itself has arrived. I think to Porta's point, the NWS is now operating under this free for all model accessible digital age era where every so called "weather enthusiast" (good and bad) has a platform.

When the worst-case scenario model is being overhyped it often isn't going to align with what the NWS is forecasting and that's because they don't operate that way (for good reason). I've seen a few examples on this forum (2022 Feb ice event) where folks were calling for ice storm warnings only to see model forecast that ended up being way overdone so it happens the other way to be fair. I wouldn't even want to get into what I've seen on social media. Lol

I do think however that if we want our most trusted weather sources to remain as such, the public should have a forum (after the event) to provide feedback/surveys etc or at a minimum get a better understanding as to what the forecaster was evaluating/weighing during the lead up to the event. The forecast discussions are obviously a good tool for the public, but I think those should be highlighted more perhaps on the site/NWS social media platforms than they are today. Just my .02.

Now back to weather.

[Iceresistance]

Temp still dropping. Down to 35.8 IMBY. No strong wind helping but it’s slowly getting colder.

Even the Canadian is busting from yesterday's 12z run for this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/c7PJBsz.png

https://i.imgur.com/6ouizhl.png

Holy crap, even the coldest model run was not cold enough?

[Ntxw]

Temp still dropping. Down to 35.8 IMBY. No strong wind helping but it’s slowly getting colder.

Even the Canadian is busting from yesterday's 12z run for this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/c7PJBsz.png

https://i.imgur.com/6ouizhl.png

Holy crap, even the coldest model run was not cold enough?

Yes from southern Kansas to TX where the front has passed it underestimated some.

Looking at the 12z GFS today it initiated decent at 12z (near 6am this morning) then quickly the next frame jumped to warm everything up by noon but in real time isn't the case. Clear issue with surface air erosion involving terrain/resolution. It's actually pretty good in Missouri/Illinois and points east/north east. But southern plains no bueno.

[Lptx]

30 degrees with more light precip headed this way

[orangeblood]

Even the Canadian is busting from yesterday's 12z run for this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/c7PJBsz.png

https://i.imgur.com/6ouizhl.png

Holy crap, even the coldest model run was not cold enough?

Yes from southern Kansas to TX where the front has passed it underestimated some.

Looking at the 12z GFS today it initiated decent at 12z (near 6am this morning) then quickly the next frame jumped to warm everything up by noon but in real time isn't the case. Clear issue with surface air erosion involving terrain/resolution. It's actually pretty good in Missouri/Illinois and points east/north east. But southern plains no bueno.

Any coding experience? If so, we need to start a Go Fund me page for you/quit your day job and fix the code

[Iceresistance]

Holy crap, even the coldest model run was not cold enough?

Yes from southern Kansas to TX where the front has passed it underestimated some.

Looking at the 12z GFS today it initiated decent at 12z (near 6am this morning) then quickly the next frame jumped to warm everything up by noon but in real time isn't the case. Clear issue with surface air erosion involving terrain/resolution. It's actually pretty good in Missouri/Illinois and points east/north east. But southern plains no bueno.

Any coding experience? If so, we need to start a Go Fund me page for you/quit your day job and fix the code

No, I'd rather upgrade the model(s) to where it can pick up on the Shallow Arctic Air better!

[Iceresistance]

Believe it or not, but the News 9 High-Resolution radar is picking up some Lake-Effect Snow coming from Lake Arcadia!

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/aarontuttleok/status/1619740453666177024

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/lcr_forecast/status/1619721280667926528

[Iceresistance]

Ice is being picked up on radar over Abilene, TX

[Gotwood]

Just now got to 32 here with drizzle. Nothing freezing yet but temps are 8 degrees colder at this time than forecasted.

[WXSnowman]

As long as we adhere to the forum rules, we’re fine. If this can’t be a place for honest dialogue … and we will disagree from time to time … then why bother? Right?!

We can agree to disagree. I know we have a lot of weather to discuss so I don’t want to hijack the thread.

Lol no doubt! Yep, now back to our regularly scheduled Amateur forecast discussions…

I can certainly say that as a pre-amateur, I’m grateful. I’ve been lurking for sometime now and learned a lot. However, you folks really should consider a thread for the acronyms…

[rwfromkansas]

https://twitter.com/lcr_forecast/status/1619721280667926528?s=46&t=XRzjgfNO3TfuimaoXX3B7Q

That’s a new chart. Interesting.

I do think the HRRR is more aggressive tomorrow than other models. But, I kind of hope it’s right so schools call it rather than an early release in ice.

IMBY the temp is now 33.8.

It’s fascinating watching the step down on my weather station app. It stalls out, then DP drops and it goes with a bigger drop after.