Texas Winter 2022-2023

[UTSARoadrunner4]

https://twitter.com/iembot_ewx/status/1619791731242983424?s=20&t=oBegDK89bHz225eiu7z9dQ

I wouldn’t be surprised they include Comal & Hays County into this watch. Seems like the only impacts for SA will be anyone north of 410/Balcones Escarpment.

Yeah big temp difference across Bexar County with these setups. Higher elevation up in the northern areas and so temps will range from 30-35 across the county.

I didn’t think the Escarpment would have that much of an impact on weather here.

[bubba hotep]

NWS Weather Prediction Center
@NWSWPC
·
2m
The potential is increasing for a prolonged, significant icing event across the southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley during the Monday through Wednesday time-frame, with 48-hr probability of freezing rain accumulation exceeding 0.25" depicted below.

[CaptinCrunch]

2 things to also account for, one, once you get even a small amount of freezing precipitation on the ground it creates an insulator and surface warmth no longer applies.

Second, sleet will greatly cool the column and lower temperatures further. So if sleet becomes the expected primary precipitation then i think we may get a much better chance for snow on the backend, and depending on rates could be a few inches for some across NTX.

[Ntxw]

For DFW the magic numbers is 27-29F for concrete. That's when UHI warmth is overcome even if it was 90F the day before. For elevated surfaces 30-31.

NAM going majority sleet across DFW

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/tx/sleet_total/1675015200/1675231200-y6AvDAVddZI.png

Freezing layer almost up to 900mb level and quite cold (-5C) on Tuesday which maybe be enough to freeze
https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/nam-218-all/KFWD/cross_section_zoom/1674993600/1674993600-ExEphIkBHMM.png

Yes initially the NAM could be right. Several thousand feet worth of below freezing air is enough to partially if not refreeze to sleet. The cold has come in faster and harder than forecast and the NAM's upper profile isn't as warm up to 850mb. ZR usually is a zone that hasn't seen freezing temps for long periods of time.

[Haris]

[Ntxw]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/y0SvsDC/DBF34-E8-B-B0-F5-45-C2-97-A3-E9501425-D2-A7.png [/url]

I certainly hope this is overdone. We don't need power outages.

[rwfromkansas]

Not checking the other outputs but guessing the RGEM would show more sleet about where I am on west based on that “look.” I don’t imagine it being all sleet but more than we thought yesterday, which will aid in freezing. Also pretty high QPF compared to some other models.

[Ntxw]

DFW has fallen to 34F. No warm up at all today. Oklahoma is still sitting about where they were this morning. Yikes.

[CaptinCrunch]

Long as the precip come in as mostly sleet the less likely power issue will be a concern. However if frz rain comes first and it gets heavy enough then yes power issues can be significantly increased

[Portastorm]

The "good thing" so far is based on the latest HRRR/NAM, not seeing temps inside the major cities drop below 30 degrees for long (AUS/SA get to 30-32 in western/northern areas). DFW for now doesn't drop below 30 degrees in long duration (perhaps a few hours).

Temps will probably hover and even rise a few degrees as mentioned yesterday as the precip picks up from the south and so for hopefully this stays more bridges/overpasses up in DFW (which can still be a big problem for obvious reasons) but right now I don't see this becoming a major ice event for the surface roads/sidewalks etc with temps being what they're forecasted to be thus far along with soil temps being warm out ahead of this. Hill Country (Areas north & west of SA/Aus) and areas to the west of the Metroplex could experience more widespread difficulties I think where the surface temps will stay in the mid to upper 20's for a much longer period.

Tuesday night into early Wed morning is probably going to end up being the "main event" with this setup for most locations.

I’m with you here and this really matches my thinking as well. Now, I’m basing my thinking on the NAM being worst case scenario as it relates to temperatures here in Travis County. If the NAM is too warm then all bets are off, because we will have enough qpf down here to create havoc if it freezes on the surface.

[Portastorm]

DFW has fallen to 34F. No warm up at all today. Oklahoma is still sitting about where they were this morning. Yikes.

Currently 73 at the Portastorm Weather Center.

But that’s about to change in an hour or so.

[TropicalTundra]

Long as the precip come in as mostly sleet the less likely power issue will be a concern. However if frz rain comes first and it gets heavy enough then yes power issues can be significantly increased

That’s what I’m hoping for. Like you said, sleet will definitely help with upper levels and snow possibilities and won’t cause as much havoc as ice. Fingers crossed

[Ntxw]

This is one juiced up system for sure. Upper levels you can see it draw from the Gulf initially and eventually the Pacific plume comes into play as well. Kudos to the GEM suites for catching this early on. If this were a warm season set up we'd be posting maps of 4-6" of rain.

[cstrunk]

This is one juiced up system for sure. Upper levels you can see it draw from the Gulf initially and eventually the Pacific plume comes into play as well. Kudos to the GEM suites for catching this early on. If this were a warm season set up we'd be posting maps of 4-6" of rain.

https://i.imgur.com/bSEjr8J.gif

Well, I've already had 3.3" of rain since yesterday. Had about 1.5" in the middle of last week.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m pretty stable at 32-32.2. Always intriguing how there often is a wall at 32. Need that extra push to drop. Might come once the sun goes down.

[Haris]

WRF 10F too warm lol!! Same with NAM3k

[Ntxw]

I’m pretty stable at 32-32.2. Always intriguing how there often is a wall at 32. Need that extra push to drop. Might come once the sun goes down.

You are well ahead of schedule. Even the coldest of guidance didn't get most of us near freezing until midnight or later.

[orangeblood]

I’m pretty stable at 32-32.2. Always intriguing how there often is a wall at 32. Need that extra push to drop. Might come once the sun goes down.

You are well ahead of schedule. Even the coldest of guidance didn't get most of us near freezing until midnight or later.

I‘be heard no compelling reason to not go with the CMC/RGEM forecast for this event, it’s pegged from several days out and hasn’t waivered…anyone have a reason not to considering on going real time observations ??

Also, doesn’t get above freezing for most until Thursday noon

[bubba hotep]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/y0SvsDC/DBF34-E8-B-B0-F5-45-C2-97-A3-E9501425-D2-A7.png [/url]

18z QPF before surface temps go above freezing in many areas:

RGEM



12k NAM

[Iceresistance]

5000 posts, how?