Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5001 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:55 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I’m pretty stable at 32-32.2. Always intriguing how there often is a wall at 32. Need that extra push to drop. Might come once the sun goes down.


You are well ahead of schedule. Even the coldest of guidance didn't get most of us near freezing until midnight or later.


I‘be heard no compelling reason to not go with the CMC/RGEM forecast for this event, it’s pegged from several days out and hasn’t waivered…anyone have a reason not to considering on going real time observations ??

Also, doesn’t get above freezing for most until Thursday noon


I'd play a game of Texas hold em with the GFS all in, it's trying to fold so hard.

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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5002 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:56 pm



RGEM has backing from global ensembles, NAM outlier with its QPF depiction
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5003 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:57 pm



Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5004 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:00 pm

txtwister78 wrote:


Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


Indirectly, the upper flow wants to moderate it quickly. The idea it hasn't had much success thus far up to the north can hint at it being much more difficult to do even if early on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5005 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:01 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5006 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:10 pm

Good graphic/outline I think for now.

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1619819752716701696


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5007 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:16 pm


I highly doubt temps get out of the 20s on Tuesday at least as far west as Fort Worth. They had temps at 38 by 8pm it’s already close to freezing now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5008 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:21 pm

NWS FTW still going conservative on travel impacts across DFW area, IMO they will be chasing the impacts as it's occurring. Not the best idea situation, but understandable. Tuesday-Thursday is going to be a traffic mess, so I would make plans for the least amount of travel as possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5009 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:35 pm

Texas Snow wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.


This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5010 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW has fallen to 34F. No warm up at all today. Oklahoma is still sitting about where they were this morning. Yikes.


Yeah I think we warmed up a grand total of maybe 2 degrees all day... Now a couple days ago they still thought we might make a run near freezing even this morning it was going to be upper 20s. The airport has been below 25 degrees since 8am :spam:

I'm curious about Tuesday here the Euro is definitely snowy
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5011 Postby Tammie » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:47 pm

Freezing rain in Sherman. Current temp 30°.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5012 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:50 pm

I do recall many events with a warmer bust later after an initial cold win. But, this doesn’t seem to have that feel….yet.

I don’t think we are dealing with WAA as much as some of those events.

I do note the KS forecasts show a nice warm-up starting Wednesday so there definitely will be a cut-off of cold north so I can see the quick warm up later Wednesday/Thursday being likely.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5013 Postby JayDT » Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:53 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.


This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster


Exactly what i’ve been noticing too.. Even up north the models were still too warm with the temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5014 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:03 pm

It’s down to 31.8 so the 32 wall broke.

Some freezing precip on radar to the west.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5015 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:05 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.


This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster


I don't think it's a conservative forecast personally for the cities. I just think they're choosing (for now) not to get too caught up looking at one model (Canadian/RGEM) and go all in on the extreme just yet. Trend could change but it's always going to be a blended forecast with guidance still pointing in different directions (temps/precip types/ amounts). My guess is overnight forecasters will have a better handle on things.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5016 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:14 pm

Also keep in mind, this is Siberian Origin air that set China all time low records early last week…it drained directly off the Asian continent over the pole and has now dammed up against the Rockies. Extremely dense, going to be difficult to dislodge
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5017 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:16 pm

Is there a good site for live or updated soil temps? I find some maps that seem to be estimates. But the live Mesonet links etc. seem broken that I found.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5018 Postby Texas Snow » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:17 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
txtwister78 wrote:
Some of that is a result of the quicker progression of the front/airmass. It's not uncommon to see these temp bust early on as a result of that. My focus is going to be on what happens further north tomorrow and temp variance then. In other words, how cold is the airmass behind it and does it have staying power once the precip begins to fall.


:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.


This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster


I agree but it’s just an observation I have seen over the years with many implying that because it busted 10 degrees at 10am that the lows will bust accordingly. I myself hope it’s colder than modeled.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5019 Postby Gotwood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:17 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Is there a good site for live or updated soil temps? I find some maps that seem to be estimates. But the live Mesonet links etc. seem broken that I found.

Other than yesterday we had a couple of hard freezes back to back before that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#5020 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:18 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:
Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.


This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster


I don't think it's a conservative forecast personally for the cities. I just think they're choosing (for now) not to get too caught up looking at one model (Canadian/RGEM) and go all in on the extreme just yet. Trend could change but it's always going to be a blended forecast with guidance still pointing in different directions (temps/precip types/ amounts). My guess is overnight forecasters will have a better handle on things.


Idk, 0.1 to 0.25 frz rain still seems conservative considering most every model has over 0.5 qpf DFW with temps below freezing. Several over 1 inch
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