Texas Winter 2022-2023

[CaptinCrunch]

I do recall many events with a warmer bust later after an initial cold win. But, this doesn’t seem to have that feel….yet.

I don’t think we are dealing with WAA as much as some of those events.

I do note the KS forecasts show a nice warm-up starting Wednesday so there definitely will be a cut-off of cold north so I can see the quick warm up later Wednesday/Thursday being likely.

Big difference is they are expecting partly sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday.

We on the other hand will be socked in with thick overcast skies and precipitation, so we wont warm up as quick. Probably get back to 40s on Friday at best.

[Gotwood]

Just because it’s cold ahead of schedule doesn’t necessarily mean it will be colder than guidance for the entire event.

This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster

I agree but it’s just an observation I have seen over the years with many implying that because it busted 10 degrees at 10am that the lows will bust accordingly. I myself hope it’s colder than modeled.

Yeah a lot of forecasts had clear sky’s coming out later to enhance cooling not sure if that’s still on the table.

[Ntxw]

Is there a good site for live or updated soil temps? I find some maps that seem to be estimates. But the live Mesonet links etc. seem broken that I found.

Not sure how reliable this is but a good place to start. Looks like a day or two below freezing drastically brings it down.

https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature

[txtwister78]

This sometimes can be the case but temps almost everywhere upstream are running 4-5 Deg F too warm even up to Kansas, this has big implications if the even high res models don’t have a good handle on this which clearly they don’t. Not an instance where you go conservative as a forecaster

I don't think it's a conservative forecast personally for the cities. I just think they're choosing (for now) not to get too caught up looking at one model (Canadian/RGEM) and go all in on the extreme just yet. Trend could change but it's always going to be a blended forecast with guidance still pointing in different directions (temps/precip types/ amounts). My guess is overnight forecasters will have a better handle on things.

Idk, 0.1 to 0.25 frz rain still seems conservative considering most every model has over 0.5 qpf DFW with temps below freezing. Several over 1 inch

I believe NWS uses NBM as a forecast tool and it has amounts around 0.14-0.16 through Wed evening. So definitely within that 0.1 to 0.25 range.

Winter Storm Watches also out so I think they have a good handle on it for now.

[Iceresistance]

Is there a good site for live or updated soil temps? I find some maps that seem to be estimates. But the live Mesonet links etc. seem broken that I found.

Oklahoma Mesonet has it, but I don't think that TexMesonet features it.

[Texas Snow]

Is there a good site for live or updated soil temps? I find some maps that seem to be estimates. But the live Mesonet links etc. seem broken that I found.

Not sure how reliable this is but a good place to start. Looks like a day or two below freezing drastically brings it down.

https://www.greencastonline.com/tools/soil-temperature

I used that site just last week to see if I needed to get some pre-emergent out for weeds as the ground was really getting warm. This spell should knock that down a bit.

[orangeblood]

DFW QPF forecast from All 51 members of the Euro Ensemble suite

[Iceresistance]

This is not good, I'm getting Freezing Drizzle at 21°F.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW QPF forecast from All 51 members of the Euro Ensemble suite

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_qpf/1674993600/1674993600-EYaFF4TFLfc.png

This means what and when?

[orangeblood]

DFW QPF forecast from All 51 members of the Euro Ensemble suite

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_qpf/1674993600/1674993600-EYaFF4TFLfc.png

This means what and when?

There’s 51 ensemble iterations all showing over 1 inch QPF before 6am on Thursday. At least 3/4 of that appears to occur before temps are forecast to rise above freezing Wednesday morning. And even that is up in the air

[Ghost0321]

When are the next NAM and HRRR out? So far I’m seeing local Mets and NWS trying to downplay it and other people saying icepocalypse is upon us.

[Portastorm]

When are the next NAM and HRRR out? So far I’m seeing local Mets and NWS trying to downplay it and other people saying icepocalypse is upon us.

The next NAM is the 0z run and I believe it’s around 8:30-9:00 for its run. The HRRR comes out every hour.

[starsfan65]

When are the next NAM and HRRR out? So far I’m seeing local Mets and NWS trying to downplay it and other people saying icepocalypse is upon us.

The next NAM is the 0z run and I believe it’s around 8:30-9:00 for its run. The HRRR comes out every hour.

7:30-8:00

[Portastorm]

When are the next NAM and HRRR out? So far I’m seeing local Mets and NWS trying to downplay it and other people saying icepocalypse is upon us.

The next NAM is the 0z run and I believe it’s around 8:30-9:00 for its run. The HRRR comes out every hour.

7:30-8:00

Is it really that early? Wow. Okay I stand corrected by a fellow Dallas Stars fan.

[Portastorm]

DFW QPF forecast from All 51 members of the Euro Ensemble suite

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_qpf/1674993600/1674993600-EYaFF4TFLfc.png

This means what and when?

There’s 51 ensemble iterations all showing over 1 inch QPF before 6am on Thursday. At least 3/4 of that appears to occur before temps are forecast to rise above freezing Wednesday morning. And even that is up in the air

You gotta be careful though about assuming those qpf values are what you’re going to get on the ground. When you have sleet or freezing rain, there are adiabatic processes at play that evaporate some of the precipitation. So those qpf values aren’t true. I believe that is one thing the NWS is taking into account.

[orangeblood]

Euro Op slowly coming around with a slow trend southeast with the core Frz Rn depiction (towards CMC)…expect this to continue with each subsequent run, as it gets a better hold on temp profiles

[orangeblood]

This means what and when?

There’s 51 ensemble iterations all showing over 1 inch QPF before 6am on Thursday. At least 3/4 of that appears to occur before temps are forecast to rise above freezing Wednesday morning. And even that is up in the air

You gotta be careful though about assuming those qpf values are what you’re going to get on the ground. When you have sleet or freezing rain, there are adiabatic processes at play that evaporate some of the precipitation. So those qpf values aren’t true. I believe that is one thing the NWS is taking into account.

I know there’s some evaporation but our NWS office is calling for only 10-25 % of these QPF amounts. 90% lost to evaporation ? Just doesn’t add up

[Portastorm]

There’s 51 ensemble iterations all showing over 1 inch QPF before 6am on Thursday. At least 3/4 of that appears to occur before temps are forecast to rise above freezing Wednesday morning. And even that is up in the air

You gotta be careful though about assuming those qpf values are what you’re going to get on the ground. When you have sleet or freezing rain, there are adiabatic processes at play that evaporate some of the precipitation. So those qpf values aren’t true. I believe that is one thing the NWS is taking into account.

I know there’s some evaporation but our NWS office is calling for only 10-25 % of these QPF amounts. 90% lost to evaporation ? Just doesn’t add up

I agree with you on that front. It’s a bit perplexing.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah only .10 vs 1 inch seems excessive evaporation. Except for the NAM and NBM models show plenty of QPF.

My starting point I think is .25 in freezing rain and maybe up to .35 of sleet in DFW. Maybe too low or too high.

But trying to be a little conservative while I do think NWS is a bit too low.

I tried to research how much is usually lost to QPF with sleet etc. but no luck.

[Ntxw]

0z HRRR is trending with ZR/Sleet mix tomorrow for I-35 in NTX tomorrow. Definitely trending in a slightly colder profile than before.