Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Gotwood]

I’ve already hit the forecasted low for tonight of 27. With partial clear sky’s.

[cstrunk]

The freeze line has made it to my area. This is well ahead of any model. If noting else this colder than modeled before precip serves to chill the ground.
I am starting to think that DFW may be spared worst of power issues with the inclusion of sleet but that makes roads all the more worse as sleet sticks to roads much more efficiently than freezing rain. Highest freezing rain totals look to be in the eastern DFW to western East Texas areas now. 0Z and especially 12Z models will be very telling beyond that it will be now casting.

You caught on to this early, now it seems to be coming true. Trending colder.

37F at my house in Longview now.

[orangeblood]

NBM and now SREF going towards RGEM/CMC with Ice Storm warming criteria for a large part of Texas

[bubba hotep]

Jeff Piotrowski
@Jeff_Piotrowski
·
41m
Breaking Tulsa Metro: The freezing drizzle on the bridges is now flash-freezing several wrecks are now being reported. #okwx #slickroads #ice
@NWStulsa
Jeff Piotrowski
@Jeff_Piotrowski
All bridges are slick in the Tulsa metro and have wrecks currently working.
HWY-169, I-75, I-244, Creek Turnpike, I-44 Arkansas river bridge. #okwx #Tulsa #slowdown #ice

[bubba hotep]

FWD still going with a lot of DFW warming above freezing tomorrow. Do they lower that with the overnight package or stick to their guns?

[Gotwood]

FWD still going with a lot of DFW warming above freezing tomorrow. Do they lower that with the overnight package or stick to their guns?

I think it’s safe to say it isn’t getting back above freezing till Wednesday at the earliest.

[Ralph's Weather]

My company has a department dedicated to power grid storm damage assessment. The head of that department resigned recently so I am trying to provide some meteorological expertise right now. Likely I will be busy this week supporting teams in the field and management in office with my developer and GIS hats. We can only hope that much of the Tue Wed wave is sleet or we will have major distribution issues, but also generation issues if West and NW TX get hit hard on the wind farms.

[Ralph's Weather]

The freeze line has made it to my area. This is well ahead of any model. If noting else this colder than modeled before precip serves to chill the ground.
I am starting to think that DFW may be spared worst of power issues with the inclusion of sleet but that makes roads all the more worse as sleet sticks to roads much more efficiently than freezing rain. Highest freezing rain totals look to be in the eastern DFW to western East Texas areas now. 0Z and especially 12Z models will be very telling beyond that it will be now casting.

You caught on to this early, now it seems to be coming true. Trending colder.

37F at my house in Longview now.

The surface high for this event is right up against the Rockies so the fetch is out of the NW so the Ouachita effect is minimized for NE TX. The only thing between here and the high is barbed wire and snow drifts.

[orangeblood]

Geez, we knew it was inevitable…CMC now going with frozen precip the entire event across a large swath. Never warms enough

Latest output

[Gotwood]

Geez, we knew it was inevitable…CMC now going with frozen precip the entire event across a large swath. Never warms enough

Latest output
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1675036800/1675371600-a4XzWdP8Lmw.png

Would be devastating. Let’s hope some of the cold forces down more sleet instead.

[Brent]

Jeff Piotrowski
@Jeff_Piotrowski
·
41m
Breaking Tulsa Metro: The freezing drizzle on the bridges is now flash-freezing several wrecks are now being reported. #okwx #slickroads #ice
@NWStulsa
Jeff Piotrowski
@Jeff_Piotrowski
All bridges are slick in the Tulsa metro and have wrecks currently working.
HWY-169, I-75, I-244, Creek Turnpike, I-44 Arkansas river bridge. #okwx #Tulsa #slowdown #ice

Not surprised after the cars started getting icy after dark. The bridges were only a matter of time. We have way overperformed on ice today for sure up here. Nobody expected this much freezing drizzle

[txtwister78]

Geez, we knew it was inevitable…CMC now going with frozen precip the entire event across a large swath. Never warms enough

Latest output
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1675036800/1675371600-a4XzWdP8Lmw.png

Still some doubt about overall placement along with amounts/type so not quite there yet fortunately. Still think that's an outlier despite HRRR being closer. NAM and WRF-ARW further south with highest totals. Should have a better read tomorrow

[Ralph's Weather]

I am sticking to my guns on Waco to Canton to Paris being the bullseye for ice accumulations. Temps in upper 20s there with QPF over 1". Further east QPF is over 2", but temps more borderline in low 30s. West of there QPF under 1", temps in mid 20s with sleet likely mixing in at times.

[Texas Snow]

I’m trying to keep up with the comments and graphics. Is it still looking like tomorrow will mostly be okay until late afternoon/evening in DFW? I realize some parts may be impacted more than others, so just the overall thought.

I'd also love an answer to this question.

From the NWS:

SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Much of the short term forecast below remains on track this
evening with a lull in precipitation expected overnight into early
tomorrow. One change with this evening`s update was to introduce
minor sleet accumulations with tomorrow afternoon`s precipitation
roughly along a Stephenville to DFW to Paris line. Steep lapse
rates and MUCAPE values exceeding 300 J/kg could support brief
bursts of convective sleet or freezing rain beginning around
midday which could continue through the early evening. With
marginal 2m temperatures and warm ground temperatures in place,
any impacts would likely be confined to bridges and overpasses
through the evening commute tomorrow. The greater period of
concern still appears to be Tuesday with the most widespread
round of freezing rain and/or sleet.

[Gotwood]

I am sticking to my guns on Waco to Canton to Paris being the bullseye for ice accumulations. Temps in upper 20s there with QPF over 1". Further east QPF is over 2", but temps more borderline in low 30s. West of there QPF under 1", temps in mid 20s with sleet likely mixing in at times.

I think you will be right. Tonight’s lows will kinda set the table for how cold things will be.

[orangeblood]

Geez, we knew it was inevitable…CMC now going with frozen precip the entire event across a large swath. Never warms enough

Latest output
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1675036800/1675371600-a4XzWdP8Lmw.png

Still some doubt about overall placement along with amounts/type so not quite there yet fortunately. Still think that's an outlier despite HRRR being closer.

That model got us here, see no compelling reason to jump ship now…

[txtwister78]

Geez, we knew it was inevitable…CMC now going with frozen precip the entire event across a large swath. Never warms enough

Latest output
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gem-all/tx/frzr_total/1675036800/1675371600-a4XzWdP8Lmw.png

Still some doubt about overall placement along with amounts/type so not quite there yet fortunately. Still think that's an outlier despite HRRR being closer.

That model got us here, see no compelling reason to jump ship now…

Definitely was the most accurate of the globals no question but short range/Hi-Res guidance is now taking over 48 hours within range, and I think that's probably the best bet.

[orangeblood]

Still some doubt about overall placement along with amounts/type so not quite there yet fortunately. Still think that's an outlier despite HRRR being closer.

That model got us here, see no compelling reason to jump ship now…

Definitely was the most accurate of the globals no question but short range/Hi-Res guidance is now taking over 48 hours within range, and I think that's probably the best bet.

It has a Hi-Res version, the RGEM and is producing almost exact output.

ICON now on board with little warmup thru Thursday. Models are chasing and can’t keep up, this airmass will likely hold until the bitter end

[txtwister78]

That model got us here, see no compelling reason to jump ship now…

Definitely was the most accurate of the globals no question but short range/Hi-Res guidance is now taking over 48 hours within range, and I think that's probably the best bet.

It has a Hi-Res version, the RGEM and is producing almost exact output.

ICON now on board with little warmup thru Thursday. Models are chasing and can’t keep up, this airmass will likely hold until the bitter end

We can go back and forth with model comparisons. but I'm not looking at being "right" on here especially when it comes to the most extremes. Just saying we still have some variance and so let's see what happens. Other models that aren't as bullish thankfully. That's a good thing, right?

Btw...any amount of Ice is bad regardless. I think we all agree on that.

[Gotwood]

Definitely was the most accurate of the globals no question but short range/Hi-Res guidance is now taking over 48 hours within range, and I think that's probably the best bet.

It has a Hi-Res version, the RGEM and is producing almost exact output.

ICON now on board with little warmup thru Thursday. Models are chasing and can’t keep up, this airmass will likely hold until the bitter end

We can go back and forth with model comparisons. but I'm not looking at being "right" on here especially when it comes to the most extremes. Just saying we still have some variance and so let's see what happens. Other models that aren't as bullish thankfully. That's a good thing, right?

Btw...any amount of Ice is bad regardless. I think we all agree on that.

Latest NAM has Dallas below freezing till Thursday now.